Mavericks vs. Blazers Odds, Trends, Predcition ATS

by | Jan 14, 2023 | nba

Dallas Mavericks (24-19 SU, 15-26-2 ATS) vs. Portland Trail Blazers (19-22 SU, 22-19-0 ATS)
When: Saturday, January 14th, 10:00 PM (ET)
Where: Moda Center, OR, Portland
TV: ROOT

Point Spread: DAL +1.5/ POR -1.5
Total: 228.5
Money Line: Dallas Mavericks +104/ -126

Notable Injuries

Mavericks

  • Christian Wood (Questionable) Ankle
  • Dorian Finney-Smith (Out) Adductor
  • Maxi Kleber (Out) Hamstring
  • Josh Green (Out) Elbow

Trail Blazers

  • Damian Lillard (Questionable) Ankle
  • Justise Winslow (Out) Ankle
  • Gary Payton II (Probable) Ankle
  • Nassir Little (Out) Hip
  • Ibou Badji (Out) Not With Team

Recent Form

Heading into the game, Dallas is 24-19 overall. When taking to the road, Dallas has a mark of 8-13 and a win percentage of 38%. Currently, the team is 5th in the Western Conference. So far, they are 15-26-2 vs. the spread. When looking at how the team has performed of late straight and vs. the spread, they are 2-3 in their past five games and 2-3 ATS. Over their past ten games, they are 7-3 SU and 4-6 ATS.

The Mavericks came away with a win in their last matchup against the Lakers, achieving a 119-115 victory as 2-point favorites. Luka Doncic led the Mavericks with an impressive performance, scoring 35 points on a shooting percentage of 50.0%. In addition to the win, the Mavericks also covered the spread.

Heading into the game, Portland is 19-22 overall. When playing at home, Portland has a mark of 9-8 and a win percent of 53%. Currently, the team is 12th in the Western Conference. So far, they are 22-19-0 vs. the spread. The Trail Blazers need a win in today’s matchup vs. Dallas to avoid their 6th straight loss.

Most recently, Portland lost to the Cavaliers by a score of 119-113. Damian Lillard and his 50 points was not enough for the team to pull out a win as 1-point underdogs. The Trail Blazers also finished with an ATS loss in the game.

The Historicals

In the most recent game between the two teams, the Mavericks picked up a 117-112 win over the Trail Blazers. However, heading into the game, Dallas was favored to win by 6.5 points, giving the Trail Blazers and ATS victory. So far this season, the Mavericks have a record of 2-0 vs. the Trail Blazers. The Mavericks have had the better record vs. the spread over the last five games, going 4-1. The team’s average scoring margin in these contests sits at 22 points per game. Dallas and Portland averaged a combined 232 points per game in these games, leading to an over-under mark of 4-1.

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Analysis

This season, the Mavericks’ offense averages 112.3 points per game, which is 20th in the NBA. In terms of pace, Dallas has been playing at one of the slower tempo’s in the league, averaging just 96.9 possessions per game. The three-point shot has been a big part of Dallas’ offensive game plan, as they are ranked 3rd in 3-point attempts per game. So far, they have connected on 35.6% of their looks from the outside. Defensively, the Mavericks have been one of the best units in the NBA, allowing just 104.72 points per game. So far, they have done an excellent job defending the 3-point arc, allowing teams to hit just 33.98%.

Heading into this matchup, Dallas is in jeopardy of not having Christian Wood in the lineup as he is questionable. This season, he is the team’s second-leading scorer at 18.2 points per game. So far, Luka Doncic leads the team in scoring and is averaging 34.3 points per contest.

This season, Portland is averaging just 112.1 points per game, which places them 23rd in the league. A major reason for these low numbers is the fact that they play at one of the slower paces in the NBA at just 97.6 possessions per game. In terms of 3-point shooting, the Trail Blazers are ranked 16th in attempts per game. However, they have been one of the more efficient shooting teams in the league, connecting at a rate of 37.1%. The defense has been an issue, as they currently allow 115.11 points per game. The team’s 3-point shooting defense has been a problem this year. So far, opposing offenses have hit 36.95% of their looks from the outside.

As the Trail Blazers prepare for today’s game, Anfernee Simons is their leading scorer, averaging 22.0 points per game. This season, Simons has a field goal percentage of 44.1%. The team’s second-leading scorer is Jerami Grant, who is averaging 21.9 points per game.

Betting Trends

  • The Mavericks are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.
  • The Mavericks are 2-5 ATS in their last seven after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
  • The Trail Blazers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games.
  • The Trail Blazers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

I believe Damian Lillard will be playing like a man possessed for the next few weeks, as it appears he’s going to get snubbed for the All-Star game. Few players in the NBA are more motivated than Lillard when they feel disrespected. More importantly, the Mavs aren’t a team with a big inside presence, so Portland matches up well with them, and I expect the Blazers to win this game by five or more points.