Mavericks vs. Bucks Picks & Predictions

by | Apr 3, 2022 | nba

Dallas Mavericks (48-30 SU, 44-33-1 ATS) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (48-29 SU, 37-40-0 ATS)
When: Sunday April 03 2022, 01:00 PM (ET)
Where: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, Wisconsin
TV: ABC

Point Spread: DAL +5.5/MIL -5.5 (Opened MIL -4.5 at MyBookie)
Total: 227.5 (Opened at 228)
Money Line: Dallas 172/Milwaukee -211
Power Rating: MIL -5

Probable Starting Lineups

Dallas Mavericks PG Luka Doncic, SG Jalen Brunson, SF Reggie Bullock, PF Dorian Finney-Smith, C Dwight Powell
Milwaukee Bucks PG Jrue Holiday Off Inj, SG Wesley Matthews, SF Khris Middleton Off Inj, PF Giannis Antetokounmpo P, C Brook Lopez Off Inj

Key Injuries

Dallas Mavericks Maxi Kleber: Ankle (QUESTIONABLE) Trey Burke: Illness (OUT) Sterling Brown: Illness (OUT) Theo Pinson: Finger (OUT) Tim Hardaway Jr.: Foot (OUT)

Milwaukee Bucks Giannis Antetokounmpo: Knee (PROBABLE) DeAndre’ Bembry: Knee (OUT)

The Milwaukee Bucks host the Dallas Mavericks in a Non-Conference matchup. Tip-off is set for 01:00 PM ET at the Fiserv Forum.

Recent Form

The Dallas Mavericks come into this game with an overall record of 48-30, placing them 4th in the Western Conference. So far, Dallas is above .500 on the road, holding a record of 21-18. Over their last five games, the Mavericks have played well, picking up 3 wins. During this stretch, Dallas is averaging 112.0 points per game, 5.0 points more than their season average of 107.1. This uptick in offensive play has come while playing a group of opponents who are collectively giving up 110.0 points per contest. Even though Dallas has been picking up wins, their opponents have had no trouble scoring the ball, averaging 115.0 points per game, up from the Mavericks’ usual rate of 104.7. In the Dallas Mavericks’ most recent game, the team fell to Washington by a score of 135-103.

The Milwaukee Bucks come into this game with an overall record of 48-29, placing them 2nd in the Eastern Conference. So far, Milwaukee is above .500 at home, holding a record of 26-13. The Bucks have played well over their last five games, picking up 3 wins. In this stretch, Milwaukee’s offense is scoring right in line with their season average, putting up 115.0 points per game. Combined, the Bucks’ last five opponents are giving up 110.0 points per contest. Even though the Bucks have been adding to the win column, their opponents have had no trouble scoring the ball, averaging 123.0 points per game, up from Milwaukee’s usual rate of 111.9. In the Milwaukee Bucks’ most recent game, the team fell to the LA Clippers by a score of 153-119.

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Individual Player Analysis

As Dallas travels to take on the Milwaukee Bucks, the Mavericks’ leading scorer is Luka Doncic. Through 63 games, Doncic is averaging 28 points. On the season, he has surpassed his season average in 41.0% of his games. As Doncic gets set to take on the Bucks, he could be in line for a big game as Milwaukee is allowing their opponent’s top scorer to surpass their season average in 50.88% of their games. This figure places them 22nd among NBA defenses. On the other side, Giannis Antetokounmpo leads the Bucks in scoring, averaging 30 points across his 64 games. Throughout the season, Antetokounmpo has outscored his season average in 42.0% of his outings. However, if he hopes to add to this total, Antetokounmpo will need to do so against a Mavericks defense that has been tough on their opponent’s top scorers. So far, leading scores have surpassed their season average at a rate of just 43.55%. This figure is good for a rank of 7th in the league.

Matchup Analysis

The Bucks come into this game as the more efficient offensive team, averaging 111.4 points per 100 possessions. When playing as the superior offensive unit, Milwaukee is winning at a rate of 67%. These wins are coming by an average margin of 14.0 points. On the other side, the Mavericks hold the advantage on the defensive end of the floor. So far, they have played 30 games as the better defensive team, picking up 15 wins.

The Historicals

Heading into today’s matchup, the Dallas Mavericks and Milwaukee Bucks have met up for 1 game. Milwaukee took game one by a score of 102-95.

How the Public is Betting the Mavericks vs Bucks

67% are betting the Bucks against the spread.
52% are wagering on the game to go over the posted total of 227.5

More Picks: Washington at Boston Predictions 3/4/22 >>>

Betting Trends Worth Noting

  • Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.
  • Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog.
  • Bucks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
  • Bucks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.

Joe’s Pick to Cover the Spread

The Milwaukee Bucks get set to hose the Dallas Mavericks in what should be one of the more entertaining games of the day. Heading into the matchup, both teams will be fighting to lock in their playoff seeding, as the Bucks still have an outside chance at the 1 seed but are looking to fend off Philadelphia and Boston for the 2nd position in the East. On the other side, Dallas will be looking to overtake the Warriors and make the jump to 3rd in the East. Even though the Bucks have been picking up wins vs quality opponents, these games have a tendency to come down to the wire. I recommend taking Dallas to cover at -5 points.