Mavericks vs. Warriors Game 5 Prediction ATS

by | May 26, 2022 | nba

Dallas Mavericks (61-38 SU, 57-40-2 ATS) vs. Golden State Warriors (64-33 SU, 49-44-4 ATS)

When: Thursday May 26 2022, 09:00 PM (ET)

Where: Chase Center, San Francisco, California

TV: TNT

Point Spread: DAL +7/GSW -7 (Opened GSW -6 at BetNow - Get a 100% real cash bonus up to $500 when you use bonus code PREDICTEM)

Total: 215.5 (Opened at 216)

Money Line: Dallas Mavericks +239/Golden State Warriors -300

Power Rating: GSW -7

Probable Starting Lineups

Dallas Mavericks PG Luka Doncic, SG Jalen Brunson, SF Reggie Bullock, PF Dorian Finney-Smith, C Dwight Powell

Golden State Warriors PG Stephen Curry, SG Klay Thompson, SF Andrew Wiggins, PF Draymond Green, C Kevon Looney

Key Injuries

Dallas Mavericks
Tim Hardaway Jr.: Foot (OUT)

Golden State Warriors
Otto Porter Jr.: Foot (QUESTIONABLE)
Andre Iguodala: Neck (OUT)
Gary Payton II: Elbow (OUT)
James Wiseman: Knee (OUT)

The Golden State Warriors host the Dallas Mavericks in a Western Conference Finals matchup. Tip-off is set for 09:00 PM ET at the Chase Center.

Recent Form

The Dallas Mavericks come into this game with an overall record of 52-30, placing them 4th in the Western Conference. So far, Dallas is above .500 on the road, holding a record of 26-24. Over the Mavericks’ last five games, they have picked up just 2 wins. In this stretch, Dallas’s offense is scoring right in line with their season average, putting up 109.0 points per game. Combined, the Mavericks’ last five opponents are giving up 106.0 points per contest. A key reason for Dallas’ recent struggles is a defensive unit giving up 109.0 points over their previous five contests. This figure is up from their season average of 104.7. In the Dallas Mavericks’ most recent game, Dallas took down Golden State by a score of 119-109

The Golden State Warriors come into this game with an overall record of 53-29, placing them 3rd in the Western Conference. So far, Golden State is above .500 at home, holding a record of 39-10. The Warriors have played well over their last five games, picking up 4 wins. In this stretch, Golden State’s offense is scoring right in line with their season average, putting up 113.0 points per game. Combined, the Warriors’ last five opponents are giving up 106.0 points per contest. The Warriors have been picking up victories while holding opponents to an average of 104.0 points per game, similar to their season average of 106.0. In the Golden State Warriors’ most recent game, the team fell to Dallas by a score of 119-109.

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Individual Player Analysis

As Dallas travels to take on the Golden State Warriors, the Mavericks’ leading scorer is Luka Doncic. Through 67 games, Doncic is averaging 28 points. On the season, he has surpassed his season average in 42.0% of his games. Against the Warriors, Doncic will need to be on top of his game as Golden State is allowing their opponent’s top scorer to surpass their average in 43.0% of their games, placing them in the top 10. On the other side, Stephen Curry leads the Warriors in scoring, averaging 25 points across his 64 games. Throughout the season, Curry has outscored his season average in 45.0% of his outings. On the season, the Mavericks have allowed their opponent’s top scorer to surpass their season average in 47.76% of their games, giving them a rank of 11th among NBA defenses.

Matchup Analysis

The Mavericks come into this game as the more efficient offensive team, averaging 109.8 points per 100 possessions. When playing as the superior offensive unit, Dallas is winning at a rate of 69%. These victories are coming by an average margin of 13.0 points. On the other side, the Warriors hold the advantage on the defensive end of the floor. So far, they have played 40 games as the better defensive team, picking up 31 wins (78%).

The Historicals

Heading into today’s matchup, the Dallas Mavericks and Golden State Warriors have met up for 8 games. In their last meeting, Dallas picked up a 119-109 win.

How the Public is Betting the Mavericks vs Warriors

67% are betting the Warriors against the spread.

52% are wagering on the game to go over the posted total of 215.5

Betting Trends Worth Noting

  • The total has gone OVER in 14 of Dallas’s last 20 games when playing Golden State
  • The total has gone OVER in 9 of Dallas’s last 13 games on the road
  • Golden State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
  • Golden State is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games at home

Joe’s Pick to Cover the Spread

Heading into game 5 of the Western Conference Finals, the Golden State Warriors are the heavy favorites to pick up the win. In game 4, Dallas was able to extend the series in large part to their 3 point shooting, as they hit 20 shots from downtown compared to just 10 for Golden State. However, I don’t see this type of discrepancy happening again, as the Warriors should return to form at home. Look for Golden State to close things out in game 5, punching their ticket to the NBA Finals. I like the Warriors -7. Bet your NBA playoffs picks for FREE this week by taking advantage of a 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300 at MyBookie Sportsbook! (Must use bonus code PREDICT100). Already have an account there but still want a 100% bonus? We’ve got a special deal where you can deposit $100 to $500 and get a 100% REAL CASH bonus at Betnow Sportsbook as well! (Must use bonus code PREDICTEM).