Miami Heat vs. Orlando Magic Pick, Odds & Analysis

by | Last updated Mar 11, 2023 | nba

Miami Heat (36-32 SU, 25-41-2 ATS) vs. Orlando Magic (27-40 SU, 35-31-1 ATS)

When: Saturday, March 11th, 7:00 PM (ET)

Where: Amway Center, FL, Orlando


Point Spread: Mia -2.5/Orl +2.5 (Bet this game and ALL your hoops bets at -105 odds at BAS!)

Total: 221.5

Money Line: Miami Heat -139/+116

Notable Injuries


  • Kyle Lowry (Probable) Knee
  • Duncan Robinson (Out) Illness


  • Jonathan Isaac (Out) Injury Management

Recent Form

Heading into the game, Miami is 36-32 overall. When taking to the road, Miami has a mark of 14-19 and a win percentage of 42%. Currently, the team is 7th in the Eastern Conference. So far, they are 25-41-2 vs. the spread. When looking at how the team has performed of late straight and vs. the spread, they are 3-2 in their past five games and 2-3 ATS. Over their past ten games, they are 4-6 SU and 3-7 ATS.

The Heat came away with a win in their last matchup against the Cavaliers, achieving a 119-115 victory as 3-point favorites. Jimmy Butler led the Heat with an impressive performance, scoring 33 points on a shooting percentage of 75.0%. In addition to the win, the Heat also covered the spread.

Heading into the game, Orlando is 27-40 overall. When playing at home, Orlando has a mark of 15-19 and a win percentage of 44%. Currently, the team is 13th in the Eastern Conference. So far, they are 35-31-1 vs. the spread. The Magic need a win in today’s matchup vs. Miami to avoid their 4th straight loss.

In their most recent matchup, the Jazz defeated Orlando with a score of 131-124. Paolo Banchero scored the most points for the team with 26, but it was not enough to earn the win. The Magic were 4 points ahead going into the game.

The Historicals

In the most recent game between the two teams, the Heat picked up a 110-105 win over the Magic. However, heading into the game, Miami was favored to win by 9.0 points, giving the Magic and ATS victory. So far this season, the Heat have a record of 2-0 vs. the Magic. When looking at how these teams have performed vs. the spread in recent matchups, the Magic have an ATS mark of 3-2. Yet, the Heat have averaged more points per game in these contests, at 107 compared to Orlando at 107. In these contests, they averaged a combined 211 points per game, leading to an over-under mark of 2-3.

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This season, Miami is averaging just 108.5 points per game, which places them 30th in the league. A major reason for these low numbers is the fact that they play at one of the slower paces in the NBA at just 96.4 possessions per game. The Heat have been able to put together a strong offensive attack despite sitting just 27th in 3-point shooting percentage. Overall, they are among the league leaders in attempts at 34.5 attempts per game. Defensively, the Heat have been one of the best units in the NBA, allowing just 105.57 points per game. So far, they have done an excellent job defending the 3-point arc, allowing teams to hit just 34.0%.

Bam Adebayo is the top scorer for Miami, averaging 21.1 points per game. This season, his field goal percentage is 54.3%. The team’s second-leading scorer is Jimmy Butler, with an average of 22.3 points per game.

Coming into the game, Orlando’s offense is ranked just 27th in scoring at 111.3 points per game. This has come while being the 18th-ranked unit in pace. So far, the Magic are averaging 98.9 possessions per contest. Orlando has struggled with their 3-point shot this season, as they are currently ranked just 23rd in 3-point shooting percentage at 34.8%. In addition, they are near the bottom of the league in attempts, at just 30.7 attempts per contest. On defense, the Magic allow an average of 112.23 points per game, placing them 20th in the league. So far, teams have shot 36.62% on their looks from outside vs. Orlando. This figure places them 27th in 3-point shooting defense.

Coming into today’s game, Franz Wagner is the leading scorer for Orlando at 18.9 points per game. This season, Wagner has a field goal percentage of 48.6%. The team’s second-leading scorer is Paolo Banchero at 20.1 points per contest.

More Picks: Get our Utah at Charlotte top play for 3/11/23

Betting Trends

  • The Heat are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Saturday games.
  • The Heat are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games.
  • The Magic are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight-up loss.
  • The Magic are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following an ATS loss.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Orlando is in a good spot here, catching Miami playing their second game in a row with travel, expending a lot of energy in a huge win against the Cavs. I’m betting on the Magic plus the points! Bet your NBA plays for FREE this week by scoring a 100% real cash bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300 when you use bonus promo code PREDICT100 at MyBookie Sportsbook!