Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Dallas Mavericks Game 4 Spread Pick

by | Last updated May 28, 2024 | nba

Minnesota Timberwolves (56-26 SU, 48-47 ATS) vs. Dallas Mavericks (50-32 SU, 58-39 ATS)

When: Tuesday, May 28th, 8:30 PM (ET)

Where: American Airlines Center, TX, Dallas


Point Spread: Min +2/Dal -2

Total: 210.5

Money Line: Minnesota Timberwolves +105/-126

Notable Injuries


  • Mike Conley (Questionable) Soleus


  • Maxi Kleber (Questionable) Shoulder
  • Luka Doncic (Questionable) Knee/Ankle
  • Dereck Lively II (Doubtful) Neck
  • Olivier-Maxence Prosper (Out) Ankle

With a 3-0 series lead, the 5th-seeded Mavericks will host the 3rd-seeded Timberwolves at the American Airlines Center in Dallas on Tuesday, May 28th, at 8:30 PM ET. The Mavericks are favored by -2 points, and the over/under is 210.5 points.

The Mavericks picked up a 116-107 win over the Timberwolves in the most recent game of this series. Dallas was favored by 1.5 points heading into the game and covered the spread. Going into the game, the over/under line was at 208 points, and the teams combined to score 15 more points than that. The Mavericks held the Timberwolves to just 20 points in the 4th quarter.

Both Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic had 33 points for the Mavericks, and Irving shot 50% from three-point range. The Timberwolves made just nine threes as a team and shot 30% from beyond the arc. Anthony Edwards led the Timberwolves with 26 points, and he was one assist and one rebound away from a triple-double.

Recent Form

Minnesota’s O/U record for the season is 51-45, and their games have averaged 218.1 points per game. Today’s O/U line is 210.5, and the team has gone over the line in each of their last three games.

Looking at their ATS record, the Timberwolves are 48-47 for the season, going 27-20 ATS on the road and 21-27 ATS at home. In their last three games, they have failed to cover the spread on the road.

Minnesota’s most recent game was also against the Mavericks, with the Timberwolves losing by a score of 116-107. In that game, they were 1.5-point underdogs. Today, they are once again the underdog, getting 2 points.

Against Western Conference teams, the Timberwolves have gone 37-15 this season, and they are currently in 3rd place in the West. Overall, they have a record of 56-26.

This season, Minnesota has been the underdog in 26 of their 82 games. As the underdog, they have a scoring margin of +1 point per game. On the road, their scoring margin is +4.8 PPG.

Today, the Mavericks are favored by 2 points at home against the Timberwolves. This season, Dallas has been favored in 60 of their 82 games and has a record of 44-16 in those games. As the favorite, they have won their last two games and have a scoring margin of +6.8 points per game.

In the Western Conference, the Mavericks are currently in 5th place with a record of 50-32. In games against other Western Conference teams, they are 31-21 compared to 19-11 against the East.

Dallas has won five straight games, including a 116-107 victory over the Timberwolves. In that game, the Mavericks were favored by 1.5 points and covered the spread. The O/U line was 208 points.

This season, the Mavericks have an O/U record of 45-52, and their games have averaged 230.1 points per game. In their last four games, the final score has gone over the posted O/U line.

For the season, the Mavericks have an ATS record of 58-39, including going 25-23 ATS at home. In their last four games, they have covered the spread on the road.

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The Historicals

Through the last 5 matchups between the teams, Dallas has an ATS mark of 4-1. But, looking at the scoring margin in these games, an average of just 2 points per game separates the teams. In these matchups, the teams have put together an over-under mark of 3-2. Combined, they averaged 216 points in these games.


Minnesota comes into the game as the NBA’s 20th-ranked scoring offense, at 113 points per game. Their scoring average on the road is 113.2, compared to 111.3 at home. The Timberwolves are one of the most efficient three-point shooting teams in the league, as they have hit 38% of their looks from beyond the arc, which is the 3rd best mark in the NBA.

Anthony Edwards has been playing well of late, averaging 21.8 points per game in his last five games. Over this stretch, he also averaged 7 assists and 7.4 rebounds. Jaden McDaniels has hit 63.3% of his shots from the field in his last five games and averaged 17 points per game. Karl-Anthony Towns is averaging 21.8 points for the season but just 15.6 in his last five games.

When it comes to defense, the Minnesota Timberwolves have been the best in the NBA this season, allowing just 105.9 points per game. On the road, they have been even better, giving up just 108.4 points per game.

Minnesota has done a great job of stopping opponents from scoring, holding them below their season average in 86.6% of their games. They have also been able to limit three-point shooting, with teams making fewer threes than their season average in 84.1% of their games.

One area where the Timberwolves have been able to excel defensively is inside the arc. They are allowing opponents to shoot just 51.0% on two-point attempts, which is the best mark in the league.

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For the season, Luka Doncic is averaging 33.9 points, 9.8 assists, and 9.2 rebounds. Over his last five games, he has hit 44.9% of his threes and 4.4 threes per game. This has led to an average of 31.6 points per game in these games. Kyrie Irving is averaging 25.6 points per game this season and 23.4 points per game in his last five games. In these games, he hit 46.4% of his threes.

Dallas is 9th in scoring this season, at 117.9 points per game. They are also 10th in scoring at home, with an average of 117.2 points per contest. The Mavericks are 4th in both three-point attempts and makes this year but are just 14th in three-point shooting percentage.

So far this season, the Mavericks are 17th in the NBA in points allowed per game at 113.8. At home, they are giving up 113.5 points per contest. Over their last five games, they have been even better, ranking 6th in points allowed at 105.6.

One area where Dallas has struggled is in steals, as they are 25th in the league at 6.9 steals per game. However, they have been solid in terms of blocked shots, ranking 12th at 5 per contest.

Opponents have been able to hit 36.5% of their three-point attempts vs. the Mavericks, which is 16th in the NBA. Overall, opposing teams are shooting 47.1% from the field vs. Dallas.

Betting Trends

  • Across the Timberwolves last three road games, the team averaged 100 points per game while allowing 106. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 1-2, while going 1-2 straight-up.
  • The Mavericks are 3-0 ATS in their last three home games and 3-0 straight-up.
  • Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the underdog, the Timberwolves have a straight up record of 6-4. Their record vs the spread in these games was 6-4.
  • In their last three games as the betting favorite, the Mavericks have a straight up record of 2-1, while going 1-2 against the spread.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

It’s hard for me to believe that both Conference Finals series are going to end in sweeps. I see Anthony Edwards putting up a huge game in this one and I like the Timberwolves to extend the series. My pick is to take the Timberwolves on the moneyline.