NBA Pick: Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors

by | Dec 22, 2018 | nba

Dallas Mavericks (15-15 SU, 17-13 ATS) vs. Golden State Warriors (21-11 SU, 14-18 ATS)
When: Saturday, December 22nd, 2018 – 8:30 PM ET
Where: Oracle Arena – Oakland, CA
TV: FSN
By: Keith Franks, NBA Handicapper, Predictem.com

Point Spread: DAL +11.5 / GS -11.5
Total: 225
Power Rankings: Golden State -9

Takeaways From Dallas and Golden State’s Most Recent Games

The Mavericks have extended their losing streak to four games now while also failing to produce a cover in their last five contests overall. Most recently, the Mavs were defeated in the City of Angels on Thursday when they were defeated 125-121 by the Los Angeles Clippers. Dallas closed as a 3.5-point underdog and thus failed to come in under the number by splitting hairs.

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The two-time defending NBA Champions enter into this contest off a road loss suffered in Salt Lake City on Wednesday against the Utah Jazz. The Warriors closed as a two-point favorite but were subsequently defeated 108-103 by the Notes. Overall, Golden State is 1-4 ATS in their last five contests.

How the Public is Betting the Dallas-Golden State Game

Presently, 61% of the betting public are spotting the points with the Warriors. To mirror this trend, we have seen the line also move by half of a point upward from the initial asking price of -11 on the W’s.

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The Historicals

The Mavericks ended a ten-game Golden State winning streak against Dallas a month ago when they hosted the Warriors in the Metroplex. In the most recent meeting, the Mavericks defeated the Warriors by a way of a three-pointer to pull off the upset as a two-point underdog on November 17th.

Injury Concerns

Outside of the well-documented injury to Warriors Center DeMarcus Cousins, there are no prevalent concerns for either team as they head into this game.

Trouble Continues For Dallas Out of Town

Dallas’ road woes continued after they sustained their fifth consecutive away loss to fall to 2-12 SU overall on the season when they are on the road. This notion compelled with the mystique that surrounds the fabled home of the Warriors or “The O” as it is known to many repels action from the Mavs toward the Warriors here who own a 13-3 SU home record. Golden State may own several other advantages against their counterparts but one place they do not is defense. The Mavericks are authors of the 12th-ranked scoring defense giving up 109.2 points per game which is better than the defending champions’ 110.4 points per game (15th in the NBA). In addition, the Mavericks get more mileage out of their bench as they average 37.8 points per game compared to Golden State’s 29.8 bench points per game. This is a significant advantage as the Mavericks can cash in when superstars Kevin Durant and Steph Curry are catching a breather.

Golden State Continues To Be The Gold Standard

Make little mistake about this one, the Warriors are still the team to beat in the league even if they have the fifth best record in the NBA at the moment. The Warriors reputation precedes itself. The W’s continue their marksman-like ways in the shooting department as they own the best field goal percentage (48.6%) and second-best three-point field percentage (38.7%) in the NBA which makes them a nightmare for any team to face given the eruptive ability of their offense. The Warriors are averaging 115.5 points per game which puts them third overall in the league.

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Betting Trends

Despite Golden State’s recent dominance overall in this series, they are just 6-4 ATS against the Mavericks over the last ten contests. As a whole, Dallas has not been a viable option for takers against the Warriors as they are 21-44-1 ATS in the last 66 meetings. Moreover, Dallas is 2-7 ATS when they are in Oakland playing the Warriors. All of these narratives once again steer action away from the Mavs and towards Golden State which allows Dallas takers to step in on a likely enhanced price.

Keith’s Pick to Cover the Spread: Dallas +11.5

There is one prominent disadvantage to backing Golden State and that is the premium that this team will inflict on many occasions to those that wish to take action on them. As a two-time defending NBA Champion and a team that has gone to the NBA Finals for four consecutive years, this team epitomizes the term dynasty which also makes them a public commodity. As a result, the markets have taken advantage subjecting those that back the Warriors to inflated point spreads and overlays by the dozen. It is for this reason we consistently see a contrasting difference between Golden State’s SU and ATS records. When you toss this narrative in with Dallas’ liabilities as a choice in this series along with fact that this game is in Oakland with Dallas having struggled mightily on the road, the propensity for such an event is maximized. However, Dallas actually owns the emotional edge here. All the Mavs have to do is think back about a month ago when they finally absconded the Golden State monkey off their back. This Dallas team has the blueprint to beat the Warriors yet we get them at an insanely equitable price by virtue of the fact the Mavericks have also been in poor form as of late. We can rest assure anyone that Dallas will be bringing everything they got here and look to end their skid with style. Even if the Mavs fall short, there is plenty of room to come in under a lofty figure.

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