NBA Predictions: Lakers vs. Pelicans – Take the Points

Los Angeles Lakers (46-35 SU, 37-44 ATS) vs. New Orleans Pelicans (49-32 SU, 43-37 ATS)

When: Sunday, April 14th, 3:30 PM (ET)

Where: Smoothie King Center, LA, New Orleans

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: LAL +3.5/NO -3.5

Total: 230

Money Line: Los Angeles Lakers +140/-171

Notable Injuries

Lakers

• Anthony Davis (Probable) Eye
• LeBron James (Probable) Ankle
• Christian Wood (Out) Knee
• Jarred Vanderbilt (Out) Foot
• Jalen Hood-Schifino (Out) Back

Pelicans

• Brandon Ingram (Questionable) Knee
• Naji Marshall (Questionable) Shoulder

The Pelicans (-171) are 3.5-point favorites versus the Lakers (+140) in a Western Conference matchup. The over/under line for the game is 230 points.

Los Angeles (46-35) is currently 8th in the Western Conference and 3rd in the Pacific Division. New Orleans (49-32) is 6th in the West and 2nd in the Southwest. The game will be played at the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans and will start at 3:30 ET. ESPN will have the TV coverage.

Recent Form

In their last game, the Lakers defeated the Grizzlies by a score of 123-120. The combined scoring in the game was 243 points, which was higher than the O/U line of 227.

This season, the Lakers have an O/U record of 47-34, and the over has hit in their last three games. Today’s O/U line is set at 230 points, and their games have averaged 235.5 points per game.

Against the spread, the Lakers are 37-44 this season, and they have failed to cover in their last three games. On the road, they are 17-22 ATS compared to 20-22 ATS at home.

As the underdog, the Lakers are 14-22 ATS this season and have gone 3-3 as the underdog. Their ATS record as the road underdog is 17-19, and they have lost three straight games as the underdog.

Currently, the Lakers are 3.5-point underdogs against the Pelicans. In the Western Conference, the Lakers are in 8th place with a record of 46-35. Against the Western Conference, they are 26-25 and 7-10 against other Pacific Division teams.

The Pelicans have an overall record of 49-32 and are currently 6th in the Western Conference. In non-conference games, they are 19-11 compared to 30-21 against Western Conference opponents.

At home, the Pelicans are 20-19 ATS this season and have an average scoring differential of +3.9 points per game. As the favorite, they are 23-25 ATS and have gone 31-18 straight-up. Today, they are favored by 3.5 points.

New Orleans’ O/U record for the season is 36-45, and their last two games have gone over the line. On average, their games have scored 225.7 points per game compared to today’s O/U line of 230.

In their last game, the Pelicans defeated the Warriors by a score of 114-109. They were 4-point underdogs going into the game and went 5-2 ATS. The O/U line for that game was 222.

The Historicals

Over the last 5 head to head meetings, the Lakers have averaged 124 points per game compared to 110 for New Orleans. This has led to an ATS record of 4-1 for Los Angeles. In these contests, they averaged a combined 234 points per game, leading to an over-under mark of 3-2.

Analysis

Heading into their final game of the season, the Lakers are the 7th highest-scoring team in the NBA, averaging 118 points per game. Interestingly, they have actually been slightly better on the road, averaging 116.8 points compared to 119 at home.

When it comes to shooting, the Lakers are one of the best teams in the league, ranking 3rd in field goal percentage at 49%. They are also 3rd in pace at 101.2 possessions per game.

Despite their high-scoring offense, the Lakers are just 24th in three-pointers made per game. However, they are 8th in three-point shooting percentage at 37%.

Coming into the game, the Lakers will be looking to improve their defense, as they are currently giving up 117.6 points per game (23rd). In terms of two point field goal attempts, the Lakers defense has allowed a shooting percentage of 54.1% while allowing 37.7% from downtown.

This season, the Pelicans have been one of the NBA’s top three-point shooting teams, ranking 6th in three-point shooting percentage at 38%. However, they are just 19th in three-pointers made per game, averaging 12.4 made threes.

When it comes to scoring, the Pelicans have been slightly better on the road, averaging 115.3 points per game compared to 115.1 at home. Overall, they are 13th in the NBA in scoring.

New Orleans has been one of the league’s most efficient teams inside the arc, ranking 8th in two-point field goal percentage at 54%. However, they are just 25th in three-point attempts per game.

This season, the Pelicans defense has been impressive, holding the 8th position in the league while permitting an average of 110.5 points per contest. The New Orleans defense has allowed opponents to shoot 34.9% from beyond the arc this season. Opposing teams are also hitting 46.3% of their field goal attempts vs. New Orleans.

Betting Trends

• In their last three games away from home, the Lakers have a straight up record of 3-0 while going 1-2 vs the spread. The team averaged 125 points per game in this stretch.
• Across the Pelicans last ten home games, the team averaged 112 points per game while allowing 103. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 6-3-1, while going 9-1 straight-up.
• Spanning across their last five games as the betting underdog, the Lakers have gone 2-3 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 2-3.
• In their last three games as the betting favorite, the Pelicans have a straight up record of 1-2 and an ATS mark of 0-3.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

This afternoon’s matchup between the Pelicans and the Lakers is a big one for how things will shake out in the play-in tournament in the West. A Pelicans win would keep them from having to win their way into the actual playoffs, while the Lakers want to hold on to the 8th seed. I see this one coming down to the wire, and like the Lakers to cover at +3.5.