Brooklyn Nets at New York Knicks
Monday, November 2, 2026
7:30 PM ET, Madison Square Garden
The Knicks are 14.5-point favorites over the Nets with a total of 220.5. My play is Brooklyn +14.5 (-105).
Somebody has to say it: the defending champs haven’t earned a two-touchdown spread yet. New York is 2-4, it has covered once in six tries, and it’s being priced like it’s still holding the trophy at the parade. I respect the banner. I’m not paying 14.5 points for it.
The Knicks’ offense is still stuck in the parking garage
Through six games, New York is scoring 109.3 points per 100 possessions. League average is 113. That’s not a champion’s offense. That’s a team leaning on Jalen Brunson to bail it out every night. Brunson is pouring in 25.5 points a game, and he dropped 38 in Chicago. In the other games, the Knicks have looked heavy-legged and predictable.
Then there’s the pace. The Knicks play at the sixth-slowest pace in the league, about 98 possessions a game. Five of their six games have gone under the total. Fewer trips down the floor means fewer chances to build a 15-point cushion. New York has won by 14 or more exactly once, against Detroit, and even that one landed short of this number.
Brooklyn is bad, but it isn’t folding
The Nets are 1-5, and nobody is confusing them with a playoff team. But look at how they’ve lost. They lost by four in Cleveland. They lost by one in overtime in Boston. On Sunday night they went into Indiana and won 98-90 behind 23 from Michael Porter Jr., 20 from Julius Randle and a 15-and-13 double-double from Day’Ron Sharpe. Brooklyn also won the glass 43-37.
Jordi Fernández’s group is young and loose with the ball, but it competes. Randle runs the offense (21.0 points, 7.6 boards, 5.2 assists a game), and Porter gives them a shooter who can get hot enough to keep a backdoor open all night.
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The rookie who skipped Sunday for this one
Here’s a detail I like. Brooklyn sat rookie guard Mikel Brown Jr. on Sunday for load management to rest his back, with the Knicks next on the schedule. That reads like a team that circled this game. Brooklyn hadn’t filed its official injury report as of early Monday, so confirm Brown’s status before tip. Egor Demin (leg) and Tyler Bilodeau (shoulder) are out.
On the Knicks’ side, Jose Alvarado is questionable with a sprained left ankle. Brunson looked like he tweaked an ankle late in Friday’s loss in Philadelphia, but he’s not on the injury report.
Why I could be wrong
This is the second night of a back-to-back for Brooklyn, and the Knicks have been sitting at home since Friday. Tired legs plus a turnover problem is a scary combination at the Garden. The Nets cough it up on 16.3% of their trips, the fourth-worst rate in the league. New York has also beaten Brooklyn 14 straight times dating back to January 2023, according to Posting and Toasting, and an annoyed champ against a weaker neighbor can turn into a 25-point night in a hurry. If the Knicks force turnovers early, this cover gets nervous.
But a slow, stuck offense laying 14.5 is a lot to ask. The Knicks should win. I just don’t see a team that has covered once all season suddenly running a rival off the floor.
Projected score: Knicks 112, Nets 101
The Pick: Nets +14.5 (-105)
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