New York Knicks vs. Denver Nuggets Prediction ATS

by | Last updated Mar 21, 2024 | nba

New York Knicks (41-27 SU, 37-30 ATS) vs. Denver Nuggets (48-21 SU, 31-36 ATS)

When: Thursday, March 21st, 9:00 PM (ET)

Where: Ball Arena, CO, Denver


Point Spread: NY +9.5/Den -9.5 (Recommended: Take a second to learn about Reduced Juice!)

Total: 209

Money Line: New York Knicks +319/-412

Notable Injuries


  • Julius Randle (Out) Shoulder
  • OG Anunoby (Out) Elbow
  • Mitchell Robinson (Out) Ankle


  • Vlatko Cancar (Out) Knee
  • Zeke Nnaji (Questionable) Back

Two of the hottest teams in the NBA will square off in Denver as the Knicks take on the Nuggets at 9:00 ET. New York has won four straight games and is 41-27 on the season. Denver is 48-21 and has the second-best record in the Western Conference.

The Knicks are 9.5-point underdogs and +319 on the moneyline. The total for this non-conference matchup is set at 209 points. Tip-off from Ball Arena is at 9:00 ET and will be televised on ALT.

Recent Form

As the underdog, the Knicks have won their last three games and have a record of 12-18 as the underdog this season. On the road, they are 19-13 ATS compared to 18-17 ATS at home.

New York’s ATS record for the season is 37-30, and they have covered the spread in their last two games. Today, they are getting 9.5 points against the Nuggets.

The Knicks are 41-27 overall this season, which is good for 4th place in the Eastern Conference. Against the East, they are 27-15 and 14-12 in non-conference games.

In their last game, the Knicks defeated the Warriors by a score of 119-112. They were 6.5-point underdogs going into the game and have an O/U record of 24-43-1 for the season.

In terms of scoring, the Knicks’ games have averaged 219.9 points per game this season. Today’s O/U line is set at 209, and 64 of their games have had higher O/U lines than that.

The Nuggets are looking to extend their winning streak to four games today against the Knicks. In their last game, they defeated the Timberwolves by a score of 115-112.

Denver’s ATS record for the season is 31-36, and they have failed to cover the spread in their last two games. As the favorite, they are 26-31 ATS this season.

In the Western Conference, the Nuggets are currently in 2nd place with a record of 48-21. In games against other Western Conference teams, they are 27-15 and 7-5 against teams in their division.

This season, the Nuggets have been favored in 59 of their 69 games. As the favorite, they have a record of 44-15 and are 5.8 points per game better than the spread. As the favorite, their ATS record is 26-31.

Denver’s O/U record for the season is 26-41-2, and their games have averaged 224.9 points per game. Today’s O/U line of 209 is lower than all of their previous games this season.

The Historicals

Over the last 5 head to head meetings, the Knicks have averaged 111 points per game compared to 108 for Denver. This has led to an ATS record of 3-2 for New York. Over the course of these games, they averaged 219 points per game, leading a 2-3 over-under record.

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When it comes to scoring, the Knicks are 22nd in the league, averaging 112 points per game. On the road, they have scored 113.7 points per game compared to 110.5 at home. In terms of pace, New York is the slowest team in the NBA, averaging just 94.9 possessions per game.

So far this season, the Knicks have outscored the NBA scoring average in 41.2% of their games. In terms of field goal percentage, they are shooting 46% from the field, which is 25th in the league. From beyond the arc, New York is 17th in three-point shooting at 36%.

When it comes to getting to the free-throw line, the Knicks are 14th in the NBA in attempts but are just 29th in assists. Despite their slow pace, New York leads the league in offensive rebounds.

In the current season, the Knicks defense has excelled, sitting 2nd in the NBA by allowing 107.9 points per game. Opponents are hitting 53.7% of their two-point field goal attempts this season, and they’re also connecting on 36.4% of their three-point attempts.

When playing at home, the Nuggets are 9th in the league in scoring at 118.9 points per game. Overall, they are 14th in the league in scoring at 114.7 points per game. In terms of pace, Denver is 28th in the NBA.

Denver is one of the top shooting teams in the league, ranking 4th in field goal percentage at 49%. However, they are just 28th in three-point attempts and 29th in free-throw attempts.

In terms of assists, the Nuggets are 4th in the NBA at 29.2 per game. They are also 15th in offensive rebounds. When looking at their scoring profile, Denver has outscored the NBA scoring average in 49.3% of their games this season.

Not only do the Nuggets’ overall defensive numbers look good, as they are 7th in the league in points allowed. Denver has also been playing well on defense of late, ranking 17th in the league over their last three games at 108.3 PPG allowed. On two point field goal attempts, the Nuggets’ defensive unit is allowing a field goal percentage of 52.5% and allowing 35.7% from beyond the arc.

Betting Trends

  • When looking at their past three road matchups, New York has an ATS record of 2-0-1 while averaging 107 per game. The team went 3-0 overall in these games.
  • Across their three previous home games, Denver has an ATS mark of 1-2. Their straight up record in these matchups was 2-1 while averaging 112 points per game.
  • The last ten games that New York was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 4-6 while going 4-6 straight up.
  • Although the Nuggets have a strong straight up record in their last five games as the betting favorite, they have not done as well vs the spread going 2-3.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Even with some significant injury issues, the Knicks have won four straight games, led by some superb play from Jalen Brunson. Although I don’t see them pulling off the upset in Denver tonight, I do expect them to hang around and keep this within the spread currently sitting at +9.5. I’m taking New York to cover on the road tonight. Bet your NBA picks for free this week by scoring a 100% real cash bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300 when you use bonus promo code PREDICTEM at BetUS Sportsbook!