Nuggets vs. Magic Point Spread Pick

by | Feb 9, 2023 | nba

Denver Nuggets (38-17 SU, 29-25-1 ATS) vs. Orlando Magic (22-33 SU, 31-23-1 ATS)
When: Thursday, February 9th, 7:00 PM (ET)
Where: Amway Center, FL, Orlando
TV: BSF

Point Spread: Den -6.5/Orl +6.5
Total: 229
Money Line: Denver Nuggets -263/+211

Notable Injuries

Nuggets

  • Jamal Murray (Questionable) Knee
  • Zeke Nnaji (Doubtful) Shoulder
  • Collin Gillespie (Out) Lower Leg

Magic

  • Gary Harris (Questionable) Adductor
  • Mo Bamba (Out) Suspension

Recent Form

Denver is 38-17 overall heading into the game. When taking to the road, Denver has a mark of 12-13 and a win percentage of 48%. Currently, the team is 1st in the Western Conference. So far, they are 29-25-1 vs. the spread. When looking at how the team has performed of late straight and vs. the spread, they are 4-1 in their past five games and 4-1 ATS. Over their past ten games, they are 6-4 SU and 6-4 ATS.

In their previous game, the Denver team emerged victorious against the Timberwolves, winning by a margin of 8 points as predicted. Michael Porter Jr. shone for the Nuggets, scoring 30 points on a shooting percentage of 73.3%. The Nuggets not only won the game but also successfully covered the spread.

Heading into the game, Orlando is 22-33 overall. When playing at home, Orlando has a mark of 13-14 and a win percentage of 48%. Currently, the team is 13th in the Eastern Conference. So far, they are 31-23-1 vs. the spread. In Orlando’s last five games, the Magic have a straight-up record of 3-2 while going 3-2 in those games. Going back to the last 10, they are 5-5 and 6-4 ATS.

In their last outing, Orlando was unable to come home with a win against the Knicks, losing by a score of 102-98. Markelle Fultz led the team with 21 points, but it was not enough to overcome their status as 1-point underdogs. The Magic also ended up with an ATS loss in the game.

The Historicals

In the most recent game between the two teams, the Nuggets picked up a 119-116 win over the Magic. However, heading into the game, Denver was favored to win by 11.0 points, giving the Magic and ATS victory. This has been the only matchup between the two teams this season. When looking at how these teams have performed vs. the spread in recent matchups, the Magic have an ATS mark of 4-1. Yet, the Nuggets have averaged more points per game in these contests, at 114 compared to Orlando at 114. A combined average of 222 points per game was achieved in these matchups, leading to an over-under mark of 4-1.

Get $60 of FREE member picks & predictions

(NO commitments. NO Credit Card. NO Salesman.)

Analysis

For the season, Denver has put together one of the top-scoring offenses in the NBA at 117.4 points per game. When looking at their style of play, the team is currently near the league average in pace, averaging 98.4 possessions per contest. Denver has struggled with their 3-point shot this season, as they are currently ranked just 1st in 3-point shooting percentage at 39.7%. In addition, they are near the bottom of the league in attempts, at just 30.9 attempts per contest. On defense, the Nuggets allow an average of 110.41 points per game, placing them 14th in the league. So far, they have done a good job defending the 3-point arc, as teams are hitting just 34.42% of their looks from deep.

Heading into this matchup, Denver is in jeopardy of not having Jamal Murray in the lineup as he is questionable. This season, he is the team’s second-leading scorer at 20.2 points per game. So far, Nikola Jokic leads the team in scoring and is averaging 24.7 points per contest.

Coming into the game, Orlando’s offense is ranked just 28th in scoring at 111.1 points per game. This has come while being the 19th-ranked unit in pace. So far, the Magic are averaging 98.7 possessions per contest. Orlando has struggled with their 3-point shot this season, as they are currently ranked just 21st in 3-point shooting percentage at 34.9%. In addition, they are near the bottom of the league in attempts, at just 30.8 attempts per contest. On defense, the Magic allow an average of 112.23 points per game, placing them 20th in the league. So far, teams have shot 36.62% on their looks from outside vs. Orlando. This figure places them 27th in 3-point shooting defense.

Coming into today’s game, Franz Wagner is the leading scorer for Orlando at 19.4 points per game. This season, Wagner has a field goal percentage of 48.8%. The team’s second-leading scorer is Paolo Banchero, at 20.2 points per contest.

More Picks: Milwaukee at LA Lakers betting predictions and free pick 2/9/23

Betting Trends

  • The Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
  • The Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last five after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
  • The Magic are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss.
  • The Magic are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a straight-up loss.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

With the Denver Nuggets blowing out their opponents by ten-plus points or more in three of their last four games, it’s easy to make a case for them winning again in Orlando Thursday night. Or is it? The flip side of that coin says the Nuggets have lost their last three road games, and the win prior to that was only by one point. The Orlando Magic would have covered a line of +6.5 in five of their last six games. Don’t fall for this sucker bet! Bet the Magic plus the points!