Nuggets vs. Thunder Pick: Injuries are key on Wednesday night

Denver Nuggets (33-15 SU, 20-26 ATS) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (32-15 SU, 31-16 ATS)

When: Wednesday, January 31st, 8:00 PM (ET)

Where: Paycom Center, OK, Oklahoma City

TV: BSO

Point Spread: Den +1.5/OKC -1.5

Total: 228.5

Money Line: Denv -102/Okl. City -118

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Notable Injuries

Nuggets

• Nikola Jokic (Questionable) Low Back
• Vlatko Cancar (Out) Knee
• Julian Strawther (Out) Knee

Thunder

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Questionable) Illness
• Luguentz Dort (Questionable) Ankle
• Isaiah Joe (Out) Sternum
• Chet Holmgren (Questionable) Ankle
• Jalen Williams (Out) Ankle

At 8:00 ET, the Oklahoma City Thunder (-118) will host the Denver Nuggets (-102) in a Western Northwest divisional matchup. The Thunder (-1.5) are currently on a two-game losing streak and sit third in the Western Conference, while the Nuggets (+1.5) have won two straight and are second in the West.

This game will be played at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City and can be seen on BSO.

Recent Form

Today, the Nuggets are looking to extend their winning streak to three games. In their last game, they defeated the Bucks by a score of 113-107. Denver covered the spread as 4-point favorites.

In the Western Conference, the Nuggets are currently in 2nd place with a record of 33-15. Against other Western Conference teams, they are 17-10 compared to 16-5 in non-conference games.

As the underdog this season, the Nuggets have a record of 2-3 straight-up and 2-3 against the spread. On average, they have been outscored by -1.8 points per game in these matchups.

Denver’s O/U record for the season is 17-30-1, and their games have averaged a combined 226 points. The O/U line for their games is slightly lower than today’s line of 228.5, with an average of 227.9.

Oklahoma City is 31-16 against the spread this season and has been favored in 31 of their 47 games. However, they have failed to cover the spread in their last two games and have an ATS record of 16-7 at home.

On average, the Thunder are favored by 11.1 points per game and have a 23-8 record as the favorite. Today, they are favored by 1.5 points.

In their last game, the Thunder lost to the Timberwolves by a score of 107-101. They were favored by 2.5 points going into the game and are now 32-15 on the season (3rd in the West).

Oklahoma City’s O/U record for the season is 25-22, and the under has hit in their last three games. This year, their games have averaged 233.7 points per game.

The Historicals

When looking at how these teams have performed against the spread in recent matchups, the Thunder hold the edge at 3-2. However, the average scoring margin in these matchups has been tight, sitting at just -2 points per game. In these contests, they averaged a combined 224 points per game, leading to an over-under mark of 1-4.

Analysis

So far this season, the Nuggets are 17th in the NBA in scoring at 115 points per game. However, when playing on the road, they are averaging 110.6 points per game.

Denver’s offense is 4th in field goal percentage at 49%. In terms of pace, they are the slowest team in the league at 96.1 possessions per game.

When it comes to three-point shooting, the Nuggets are 27th in makes per game (11.4) and 14th in three-point shooting percentage (36%). On average, they are making 15.8 free throws per game (29th).

Denver’s defense has been playing well, ranking 4th in the NBA with 110.9 points allowed per game. The Nuggets defense is coming off a game in which they held the Bucks offense to just 48.4% shooting. Overall, they gave up 107 points to Milwaukee.

At home, the Thunder are averaging 122.9 points per game, which is 4th in the NBA. Overall, they are 3rd in scoring at 120.8 points per game. Despite being below average in offensive rebounds, they are 10th in assists.

Oklahoma City is 2nd in field goal percentage at 50% and 3rd in three-point shooting at 38%. In terms of pace, they are 12th in the league.

So far, the Thunder have outscored the NBA scoring average in 68.1% of their games. In terms of free throws, they are 12th in makes and 19th in attempts.

So far, the Thunder’s defense is ranked 13th in the league at 112.9 points per contest. When it comes to defending inside the arc, the Thunder squad is permitting opposing teams to shoot at a clip of 51.3% inside the arc, and they’re also giving up 36.4% from downtown.

Betting Trends

• Through their last ten road contests, the Nuggets offense has averaged 111 points per game while allowing an average of 112. Denver posted an overall record of 7-3 while going 3-6-1 ATS.
• Across their last five home contests, Oklahoma City has been good against the spread posting a mark of 4-1. Their overall mark in these games was 4-1, while averaging 117 points per game.
• Going back to their last three games as the underdog, the Nuggets have a straight up record of 1-2. But, their mark vs the spread was just 1-2.
• As the betting favorite, the Thunder have an ATS mark of just 6-4 in their last ten games. Oklahoma City posted a straight up mark of 7-3 in these matchups.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Keep an eye on the injury report heading into this game, as there are several big names listed as questionable for both teams. With a win, the Thunder would jump back into 2nd place in what is a tightly contested race for the top spot in the Western Conference. But with the way Jamal Murray has been playing of late, I’m taking him and the Nuggets to pick up the win and cover the spread. Bet your NBA picks for FREE this week by scoring a 100% real cash bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $500 when you follow these simple directions: Register for an account at Everygame Sportsbook through this special link. Deposit $100 to $500. Then go directly to their “Special Offers” page and enter code PREDICTEM. Your sports betting account balance will double instantly! EG (formerly Intertops) has been in business since the 1980’s and online since the late 90’s!