Pelicans vs. Nuggets Odds & Predictions 3/6/22

by | Mar 6, 2022 | nba

New Orleans Pelicans (27-36 SU, 32-30-1 ATS) vs. Denver Nuggets (37-26 SU, 30-33-0 ATS)
When: Sunday March 06 2022, 08:00 PM (ET)
Where: Ball Arena, Denver, Colorado
TV: BSNO

Point Spread: NOP +4/DEN -4(Opened DEN -3 at BetNow)
Total: 227.5 (Opened at 227.5)
Money Line: New Orleans Pelicans +139/Denver Nuggets -166
Power Rating: DEN -5

Probable Starting Lineups

New Orleans Pelicans PG C.J. McCollum, SG Herb Jones, SF Brandon Ingram, PF Jaxson Hayes, C Jonas Valanciunas
Denver Nuggets PG Monte Morris, SG Will Barton, SF Aaron Gordon, PF Jeff Green, C Nikola Jokic P

Key Injuries

Pelicans Didi Louzada Silva: knee (OUT) Zion Williamson: foot (OUT)

Nuggets Vlatko Cancar: foot (OUT) Jamal Murray: knee (OUT) Zeke Nnaji: hamstring (OUT)

The Denver Nuggets host the New Orleans Pelicans in a Non-Conference matchup. Tip-off is set for 08:00 PM ET at the Ball Arena.

Recent Form

The New Orleans Pelicans come into this game with an overall record of 27-36, placing them 10th in the Western Conference. Throughout the season, New Orleans has struggled in their 31 road contests, sitting at 12-19. Over their last five games, the Pelicans have played well, picking up 4 wins. During this stretch, New Orleans is averaging 121.0 points per game, 14.0 points more than their season average of 107.3. This uptick in offensive play has come while playing a group of opponents who are collectively giving up 109.0 points per contest. New Orleans come into this game also playing well defensively, holding their opponents to just 101.0 points per game. An improvement on their season average of 108.7. In the New Orleans Pelicans’ most recent game, New Orleans took down Utah by a score of 124-90

The Denver Nuggets come into this game with an overall record of 37-26, placing them 6th in the Western Conference. So far, Denver is above .500 at home, holding a record of 18-11. The Nuggets have played well over their last five games, picking up 4 wins. During this stretch, Denver is averaging 118.0 points per game, 8.0 points more than their season average of 110.5. This uptick in offensive play has come while playing a group of opponents who are collectively giving up 114.0 points per contest. The Nuggets have been picking up victories while holding opponents to an average of 106.0 points per game, similar to their season average of 107.7. In the Denver Nuggets’ most recent game, Denver took down Houston by a score of 116-101.

Individual Player Analysis

As New Orleans travels to take on the Denver Nuggets, the Pelicans’ leading scorer is CJ McCollum. Through 9 games, McCollum is averaging 26 points. On the season, he has surpassed his season average in 56.0% of his games. Against the Nuggets, McCollum will need to be on top of his game as Denver is allowing their opponent’s top scorer to surpass their average in 43.0% of their games, placing them in the top 10. On the other side, Nikola Jokic leads the Nuggets in scoring, averaging 25 points across his 57 games. Throughout the season, Jokic has outscored his season average in 49.0% of his outings. Given that New Orleans’s defense has struggled to slow down their opponent’s top scorers, Nikola Jokic should be in line for a big performance. So far, the Pelicans have allowed their opponent’s top scorer to surpass their season average in 52.94% of their games, giving them a rank of 20th among NBA defenses.

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Matchup Analysis

Heading into this matchup, the Denver Nuggets are the more efficient team on both ends of the court. This scenario has taken place in 17 of Denver’s 58 games, leading to a winning percentage of 76%. So far, the New Orleans Pelicans have played 16 games as the inferior offensive and defensive unit. In these instances, they have lost 16 times, by an average margin of -15.0 points.

The Historicals

Heading into today’s matchup, the New Orleans Pelicans and Denver Nuggets have met up for 3 games. In their last meeting, New Orleans picked up a 113-105 win.

More Picks: Get Joe’s Predicted Point Spread Winning Bet >>>

How the Public is Betting the Pelicans vs Nuggets

67% are betting the Nuggets against the spread.
52% are wagering on the game to go over the posted total of 227.5

Betting Trends Worth Noting

  • Pelicans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
  • Pelicans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
  • Nuggets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
  • Nuggets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.

Joe’s Pick to Cover the Spread

Coming into the game, the Denver Nuggets are looking to continue their ascent in the Western Conference, as they are just 1.5 games behind the 5th seeded Mavericks. Look for Denver, to continue their hot play as they pick up a home win over the Pelicans while covering the spread. On the season, the Nuggets have been one of the most efficient offensive teams, posting an effective field goal percentage of 54%. On the other side, look for New Orleans to struggle on offense as they are the 3rd worst three-point shooting team in the league.