Philadelphia 76ers vs. Dallas Mavericks Pick ATS
Philadelphia 76ers (31-20 SU, 25-25-1 ATS) vs. Dallas Mavericks (29-23 SU, 26-26-0 ATS)
When: Friday, February 4th, 2022, 10:00 pm (ET)
Where: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
Point Spread: PHI +1.5/DAL -1.5 (Opened at 1.5 at MyBookie – Use bonus code PREDICT100 when registering and they’ll give you a 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300!)
Total: 213.5 (Opened at 213.5)
Money Line: PHI -105/DAL -115
Power Rating: PK
Probable Starting Lineups
Philadelphia 76ers: PG Tyrese Maxey, SG Seth Curry, SF Matisse Thybulle, PF Tobias Harris, C Joel Embiid
Dallas Mavericks: PG Luka Doncic, SG Jalen Brunson, SF Dorian Finney-Smith, PF Maxi Kleber, C Dwight Powell
Philadelphia 76ers: G Furkan Kormaz *Out* (Knee), G Shake Milton *Out* (Back), G Seth Curry *Questionable* (Back), G Ben Simmons *Out* (Personal)
Dallas Mavericks: F Kristaps Porzingis *Out* (Knee), F Tim Hardaway Jr. *Out* (Foot), G Sterling Brown *Out* (Foot)
The Philadelphia 76ers come into this game with a 31-20 record and sit 3rd in the Eastern Conference. After flying under the radar for a good part of the season, the 76ers are starting to earn their respect as a true contender in the East. What makes their run this season even more impressive is that Ben Simmons is still not with the team, so Philadelphia has managed well missing their top guard a year ago and has been able to silence the noise around his status. After closing out January with five straight wins, the 76ers had their streak ended on Wednesday in their 106-103 loss to the Wizards. Coming into this matchup with the Mavericks, a low-scoring, defensive duel is expected, as both defenses are top 10 in the NBA. While Dallas has the defensive edge in most categories, Philadelphia has the edge in one key area over the past week that is going to have a big impact in this game. The 76ers were the 2nd best team in the league in their last three games at not allowing three-point shots, which is a big part of the Dallas offense as they are a top 10 three-point shooting team. Any time you can make a team one-dimensional by taking away either the paint or the perimeter, you give yourself a better chance to come out on top. On the offensive side, the 76ers are led by Joel Embiid, who is averaging 29.1 PPG this season. As a team, the 76ers are 21st in the league, averaging 107.8 PPG. On defense, they are 8th as they give up 105.5 PPG.
The Dallas Mavericks head into this matchup with a 29-23 record and sit 5th in the Western Conference. After a great start to last month, the Mavericks have come down to earth as they are losers of three of their last five games. In their most recent game on Wednesday, Dallas had a wake-up call as they dropped a game in overtime to the Thunder at home. While their defense has been the foundation of their season thus far, over their last three games, the Dallas defense allowed 111.7 PPG, which is eight points above their season average. While this streak isn’t enough for them to pump the brakes, coming into this game where each possession will be key, having another defensively poor game could end in their second straight loss at home. Despite having the edge in this game for bettors, it is worth noting that the Mavericks will be without Hardaway Jr. and Porzingis, who are top scorers on the team. With the weight on Luka’s shoulders once again, he will have a tough time earning his baskets against a team who will make his shots from range difficult and even more tough in the paint where Embiid dominates. In his four games against the 76ers in his career, Doncic averages 21 PPG and shoots just 31.1% from range. Doncic will have to do better than both marks in this game to give the Mavericks a chance to win this game. On the season, Doncic leads the Mavericks as he averages 26 PPG and leads the team in rebounds, assists, and steals as well. As a team, the Mavericks are 24th in the NBA as they average 106.3 PPG. Dallas does, however, sit in the 3rd spot defensively as they allow 103.8 PPG.
76ers on the Road
The Philadelphia 76ers have traveled very well this season as they currently hold a 17-9 road record. Part of their success on the road, along with their ability to defend the three-point shot, is protecting the paint in opposing arenas. The 76ers allow 45.3 points in the paint on the road this season, which is better than the Mavericks allow at home. If the 76ers can control the paint in this game, the Mavericks will become one-dimensional and be easier to defend as they take lower percentage shots. For bettors, the 76ers have been on the road with a 15-10-1 record ATS and have been on fire lately with the spread against them. Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS in their last five games as road underdogs. The 76ers also have shown resilience as they bounce back well, going 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a loss. In a game with this close of a spread with what’s expected to be a low-scoring game, the 76ers are in a great spot to steal another road win if they can control the ball and the paint.
Mavericks at Home
The Dallas Mavericks have an admirable 16-10 home record this season but haven’t been as rock-solid at home lately, going 2-2 in their last four games. In their last loss to the Thunder, the Mavericks were forced to play out of character as they played at a faster pace to try and match the offensive runs of OKC. While the 76ers aren’t known for their offense, they are the overall better scoring team in this game and could pose a bigger threat than the Thunder if they have another poor defensive night. Despite a straight-up winning record at home, the Mavericks haven’t been as good against the spread, going 12-14. This season, Dallas has seen trouble against good road teams as they are 4-9 ATS in their last thirteen games against teams with a winning road record. Lastly, in close games like these, it often comes down to who the healthier team is, which Dallas is not, giving the 76ers yet another edge in this game.
Friday night is the first matchup between the 76ers and Mavericks this season. Looking at last season, the 76ers took both games by comfortable margins. Dating back even further, the 76ers have won six of the last nine matchups.
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How the Public is Betting the 76ers vs. Mavericks
53% are betting the Mavericks against the spread.
55% are wagering on the game to go over the posted total of 213.5.
Betting Trends Worth Noting
- The Philadelphia 76ers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as road underdogs.
- The Dallas Mavericks are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. teams with a winning road record.
- The Under is 7-0 in the 76ers’ last seven games as road underdogs.
- The Over is 5-0 in the Mavericks’ last five games.
- The Philadelphia 76ers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games vs. the Mavericks.
- The Under is 5-2 in the last seven games between the 76ers and Mavericks.
Collin’s Pick for 76ers/Mavericks
This cross-conference matchup features two of the NBA’s best defenses this season. The 76ers come in winners of five of their last six games and have been building momentum offensively. The Mavericks have been slipping lately and come in shorthanded with some key starters out. With these teams neck and neck in just about every category across the board, I think the difference-maker will be the 76ers’ defense ability to contain Doncic as they have his whole career and give themselves another win on the road this season. Take the 76ers to cover the 1.5-point spread. Note: The Super Bowl is coming! Boost your bankroll and double your bet by grabbing a 100% sportsbook bonus at one of our top tier online sportsbooks!
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