Phoenix Suns at Milwaukee Bucks Game 3 Picks

by | Jul 11, 2021 | nba

Phoenix Suns at Milwaukee Bucks, Game 3, NBA Finals, 7/10/21
When: 8 pm ET Sunday, July 11
Where: Fiserv Forum
Point spread: Phx +4/Mil -4
Total: 222

After taking the first two games of this NBA Finals at home, the Phoenix Suns go for the throat when the teams meet for Game 3 Sunday night in Milwaukee. Phoenix is outplaying the Bucks so far, even while Milwaukee star Giannis Antetokounmpo plays admirably through a sore knee. Unfortunately, he’s not getting much help from his teammates. Can the Suns go up 3-0? Can the Bucks avoid a 3-0 hole? Here’s how we homeworked this Game 3 with our free NBA Finals betting pick.

NBA Finals Game 3 Betting Odds

The NBA playoffs betting market opened Milwaukee as a 3.5-point favorite for Game 3, with an over/under of right around 222. Early betting action then bumped the Bucks to -4. Those bettors out there just looking to bet the winner of this game outright could find Milwaukee at -180 on the Game 3 money line at BetOnline while Phoenix was getting +168 at Bookmaker.

NBA Finals Game 3 Betting Preview

Phoenix leads this series two games to none after taking Game 2 Thursday night 118-108. The Suns trailed Milwaukee 21-12 early but came back to lead 56-45 at the half. Phoenix then spurted to a 65-50 advantage early in the third quarter, let the Bucks get within 93-88 with just under nine minutes to go but closed things out from there for the win and the cover as 4.5-point favorites. Also, Game 2 played over a total of 221 thanks to some meaningless points in the last 30 seconds. On the night, the Suns shot 49 percent from the field and hit 20/40 from 3-point land, while defensively, they let Antetokounmpo get his – 42 points – but shut down everybody else. Bucks players other than the Freak combined to shoot just 27/71 from the floor. With Thursday’s win/cover, Phoenix is now 14-4 SU, 13-5 ATS this postseason. With Thursday’s loss, Milwaukee is now 12-7 SU, 10-9 ATS this postseason. The big question heading into this series was the health of Bucks F Giannis Antetokounmpo, who was dealing with a tweaked knee. He’s played both games so far, tossing in 62 total points, but it hasn’t done the Bucks any good. Giannis isn’t listed on the Game 3 injury report, but we seriously doubt he’s playing at anywhere near 100 percent. Including the regular season, the Bucks are now 50-27 SU, 35-42 ATS with Antetokounmpo, 8-6 SU, 7-7 ATS without him. Phoenix played five games better than Milwaukee during the regular season, 51-21 to 46-26, and swept the season series from the Bucks two games to none. So on the season, the Suns are now 4-0 both SU and ATS against Milwaukee.

Bucks-Suns NBA Betting Trends

  • The Suns are 6-2, both SU and ATS on the road this postseason.
  • The Bucks are 7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS at home this postseason.
  • The Suns are 4-2 ATS as underdogs this postseason.
  • Home teams are 45-36 SU, 40-40 ATS this NBA postseason.
  • Favorites are 50-31 SU, 45-35 ATS this NBA postseason.

Totals Report

Unders are 9-8 in Suns games this postseason. Unders are 10-8 Bucks games this postseason. Overs are 41-38 this NBA postseason. Overs are 4-0 in Suns-Bucks games this season, which are averaging 233 total points (without overtime) against an average over/under of 225.

Free NBA Finals Pick

Phoenix is simply the better team here, even with Antetokounmpo tossing in 42 points. That Milwaukee supporting cast, which played well in the last two games of the Eastern Conference finals against Atlanta, isn’t doing nearly enough in this Finals series. Also, playing on the road creates a Suns-friendly point spread, as books and bettors alike seem to assume the Bucks might come back. Color us dubious. We’ll take the points here and might not even need them when the Suns win this game outright.