Pistons vs. Heat Point Spread Pick

by | Dec 6, 2022 | nba

Detroit Pistons (6-19 SU, 13-12-0 ATS) vs. Miami Heat (11-13 SU, 8-15-1 ATS)

When: Tuesday, December 6th, 7:30 PM (ET)

Where: FTX Arena, FL, Miami

TV: BSSU

Point Spread: DET +8.5/ MIA -8.5 (Why are you still betting games at -110 odds? Be smart! Make the switch to -105 at BetAnySports today! It’ll save you tons of money that you work hard to earn!)

Total: 221.0

Money Line: Detroit Pistons +298/ -388

Notable Injuries

Pistons

  • Cade Cunningham (Out) Shin
  • Isaiah Livers (Out) Shoulder

Heat

  • Jimmy Butler (Probable) Knee
  • Dewayne Dedmon (Probable) Foot
  • Victor Oladipo (Out) Knee
  • Duncan Robinson (Probable) Ankle
  • Haywood Highsmith (Probable) Ankle
  • Gabe Vincent (Probable) Knee
  • Tyler Herro (Probable) Ankle
  • Max Strus (Probable) Shoulder
  • Ömer Yurtseven (Out) Ankle

Recent Form

Heading into the game, Detroit is 6-19 overall. When taking to the road, Detroit has a mark of 2-11 and a win percentage of 15.0%. Currently, the team is 14th in the Eastern Conference. So far, they are 13-12-0 vs. the spread. When looking at how the team has performed of late straight and vs. the spread, they are 1-4 in their past five games and 2-3 ATS. Over their past ten games, they are 3-7 SU and 6-4 ATS.

Most recently, Detroit lost to the Grizzlies by a score of 122-112. Saddiq Bey and his 24 were not enough for the team to pull out a win as 6-point underdogs. The Pistons also finished with an ATS loss in the game.

Heading into the game, Miami is 11-13 overall. When playing at home, Miami has a mark of 8-4 and a win percentage of 67%. Currently, the team is 9th in the Eastern Conference. So far, they are 8-15-1 vs. the spread. In Miami’s last five games, the Heat have a straight up record of 3-2 while going 2-2-1 in those games. Going back to the last 10, they are 4-6 and 5-4-1 ATS.

None

The Historicals

The two teams have not met up for a game this season. In last year’s regular-season games with the Heat as the home team, Miami went 2-0. Overall, they posted a mark of 3-1 against the Pistons.

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Analysis

Coming into the game, Detroit’s offense is ranked just 24th in scoring at 110.1 points per game. This has come while being the 18th-ranked unit in pace. So far, the Pistons are averaging 99.2 possessions per contest. Detroit’s 3-point shooting numbers are below the league average, as they have hit just 33.8% of their looks from deep. On average, the team gets up 32.5 3-point shots per game, placing them 16th in the NBA. Defense has been a struggle for Detroit, as they are currently just 112.55 in points per game allowed. The team’s 3-point shooting defense has been a problem this year. So far, opposing offenses have hit 36.41% of their looks from the outside.

Power-Foward Bojan Bogdanovic currently leads the Pistons at 20.6 points per game. For the season, he is 93rd in the NBA in usage rate and has taken 15.5% of the team’s field goal attempts. In addition to his scoring, Bogdanovic is averaging 3.7 boards and 2.5 assists per contest. In today’s game, he is facing off against the NBA’s 26th-ranked defense at defending power forwards. Jaden Ivey enters the game, sitting second on the team in scoring. Through 21 games, he is averaging 15.9 and is 236th in the league in player efficiency rating.

This season, Miami is averaging just 108.8 points per game, which places them 28th in the league. A major reason for these low numbers is the fact that they play at one of the slower paces in the NBA, at just 98.2 possessions per game. The Heat have been able to put together a strong offensive attack despite sitting just 21st in 3-point shooting percentage. Overall, they are among the league leaders in attempts at 35.5 attempts per game. Defensively, the Heat have been one of the best units in the NBA, allowing just 105.57 points per game. So far, they have done an excellent job defending the 3-point arc, allowing teams to hit just 34.0%.

This season, the Heat offense has primarily worked through Bam Adebayo and Kyle Lowry, who are 1st and 2nd on the team in scoring. In his 22 games, Adebayo is 43rd in the NBA at 20.7 points per game. So far, he and Lowry have accounted for 30% of the team’s field goal attempts while combining to average 35.3 points per contest. In addition to sitting 2nd on the team in scoring, Kyle Lowry is grabbing 4.9 rebounds for Miami to go along with 6.0 assists.

Betting Trends

  • The Pistons are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss.
  • The Pistons are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
  • Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last six Tuesday games.
  • Heat are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games overall.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The Pistons are a tough team to figure out. They’re young, they’re still trying to find their chemistry, and we question if they’re taking at times to get the number one pick in the draft. They’re betting more than their record suggests, and Miami is playing their first home game after a four-game road trip, so while this game doesn’t offer tremendous betting value, my lean is to the Detroit Pistons plus the points. Bet your NBA predictions for FREE this week by taking advantage of a 100% real cash bonus up to $500 when you enter bonus promo code PREDICTEM at Betnow Sportsbook!