Point Spread Analysis: San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

San Antonio Spurs (3-7 SU, 4-6 ATS) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (6-4 SU, 7-3 ATS)

When: Tuesday, November 14th, 7:30 PM (ET)

Where: Paycom Center, OK, Oklahoma City

TV: TNT

Point Spread: SA +9/OKC -9

Total: 238

Money Line: San Antonio Spurs +328/-424

Notable Injuries

Spurs

• Keldon Johnson (Questionable) Knee
• Tre Jones (Questionable) Hamstring
• Jeremy Sochan (Questionable) Adductor

Thunder

Recent Form

So far this season, the Spurs have a record of just 3-7, as they look to pick up a win over the Thunder. On the road this season, the Spurs have posted a 2-3 record, whereas they have a 1-4 record at home.

Over the Thunder’s last five games, they are 3-2 and come in with an overall record of 6-4. In road games, the Thunder have a 3-1 record this season, in contrast to their 3-3 record when playing at home.

The Historicals

Across the previous 5 meetings between the teams, the Thunder have an average scoring margin of +5 points per game, leading to an ATS mark of 4-0-1. In these matchups, the teams have put together an over-under mark of 3-1-1. Combined, they averaged 225 points in these games.

Analysis

In their latest game, the Spurs offense put up 113 points against the Heat. They recorded an overall field goal percentage of 46.2% and made 19 threes. Offensively, the Spurs hold a season-long field goal percentage of 47%, placing them 15th in the national rankings. When it comes to three-pointers, they are ranked 21st in terms of percentage and 14th in three-pointers made.

Coming into the game, the Spurs’ defense is giving up an average of 124.2 points per game. So far, they have given up more points than the NBA league average in 100.0% of their games.

Inside the arc, the Spurs defense is giving up a shooting percentage of 56.1% and 40.4% from three-point territory.

In their most recent game, the Thunder’s offense tallied 111 points, consistent with their ongoing season average of 115.9 points per game. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the scoring for the Thunder, contributing 35 points. Additionally, Jalen Williams chipped in with 31 points.

So far, the Thunder’s defense is ranked 17th in the league at 114.1 points per contest.

Oklahoma City’s defense is currently forcing 14 turnovers per game, which is 15th in the league. Additionally, they enter the game ranked 6th in blocked shots, with an average of 6.2 rejections per game.

Betting Trends

• Although San Antonio has a straight up record of 2-3 in their last five road games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 2-3. The team averaged 109 points per game in these games.
• When looking at their past three matchups at home, Oklahoma City has an ATS record of 2-1 while averaging 105 per game. The team went 2-1 overall in these games.
• Spanning across their last five games as the betting underdog, the Spurs have gone 1-4 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 0-5.
• Through their last five games as the favorite, the Thunder have an ATS record of 3-2 and a straight up mark of 3-2.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

In a much anticipated matchup between Victor Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren, the Thunder are the heavy favorite at home. The Spurs haven’t found the win column since November 2nd vs the Suns, and none of these losses have been particularly close. So far, the Thunder have been good against the spread (7-3), and I see them winning this one by double digits. I’m taking OKC at -9.