Spurs vs. Blazers Betting Analysis & Point Spread Pick

by | Jan 23, 2023 | nba

San Antonio Spurs (14-32 SU, 23-23-0 ATS) vs. Portland Trail Blazers (21-25 SU, 24-22-0 ATS)
When: Monday, January 23rd, 10:00 PM (ET)
Where: Moda Center, OR, Portland
TV: ROOT

Point Spread: SA +9/POR -9
Total: 240.5
Money Line: San Antonio Spurs +329/-430

Notable Injuries

Spurs

  • Devin Vassell (Out) Knee

Trail Blazers

  • Justise Winslow (Out) Ankle
  • Gary Payton II (Probable) Calf

Recent Form

Heading into the game, San Antonio is 14-32 overall. When taking to the road, San Antonio has a mark of 5-15 and a win percentage of 25%. Currently, the team is 14th in the Western Conference. So far, they are 23-23-0 vs. the spread. When looking at how the team has performed of late straight and vs. the spread, they are 1-4 in their past five games and 3-2 ATS. Over their past ten games, they are 2-8 SU and 7-3 ATS.

After suffering a 131-126 loss to the Clippers; San Antonio will be looking to bounce back. Keldon Johnson was the team’s leading scorer with 23 points on a shooting percentage of 56.2%. In terms of betting, the Spurs managed to cover the spread as 7-point underdogs heading into the game.

Heading into the game, Portland is 21-25 overall. When playing at home, Portland has a mark of 11-10 and a win percentage of 52%. Currently, the team is 13th in the Western Conference. So far, they are 24-22-0 vs. the spread. The Trail Blazers need a win in today’s matchup vs. San Antonio to avoid their 4th straight loss.

Portland most recently lost to the Lakers by a score of 121-112. The team high 31 points from Anfernee Simons were not enough to come home with the win. The Trail Blazers were 5-point favorites going into the game.

The Historicals

In the most recent game between the two teams, the Trail Blazers picked up a 117-110 win over the Spurs. However, heading into the game, Portland was favored to win by 8.5 points, giving the Spurs an ATS victory. So far this season, the Trail Blazers have a record of 2-0 vs. the Spurs. The ATS record across the previous five head-to-head meetings is 4-1 in favor of the Spurs. In these matchups, San Antonio has averaged 119 points per game while allowing 108. In these contests, they averaged a combined 227 points per game, leading to an over-under mark of 3-2.

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Analysis

This season, the Spurs have loved to get up and down the court, as they are currently 8th in the league in possessions per game. However, this has not fully translated into the offensive success they are looking for, as San Antonio is 17th in scoring at 112.8 points per game. San Antonio has struggled with their 3-point shot this season, as they are currently ranked just 23rd in 3-point shooting percentage at 34.6%. In addition, they are near the bottom of the league in attempts, at just 31.3 attempts per contest. The defense has been a struggle for San Antonio, as they are currently allowing 113.04 points per game. In terms of their 3-point defense, opposing teams have hit 35.84% of their looks from deep, placing the Spurs 20th in the NBA.

Going into today’s game, Keldon Johnson is the leading scorer for the San Antonio team with an average of 21.6 points per game. This season, his field goal percentage is 42.4%. The team’s second top scorer is Tre Jones, who is averaging 13.6 points per game.

This season, the Trail Blazers’ offense averages 112.8 points per game, which is 18th in the NBA. In terms of pace, Portland has been playing at one of the slower tempo’s in the league, averaging just 97.5 possessions per game. Portland’s offensive attack has benefited from some hot shooting from outside. Not only are they among the league leaders in 3-pointers attempted per game, but they are 9th in 3-point shooting percentage at 36.8%. The defense has been a struggle for Portland, as they are currently allowing 115.11 points per game. The team’s 3-point shooting defense has been a problem this year. So far, opposing offenses have hit 36.95% of their looks from the outside.

As the Trail Blazers prepare for today’s game, Damian Lillard is their leading scorer, averaging 29.0 points per game. This season, Lillard has a field goal percentage of 44.5%. The team’s second-leading scorer is Anfernee Simons, who is averaging 21.8 points per game.

Betting Trends

  • The Spurs are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.
  • The Spurs are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
  • The Trail Blazers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
  • The Trail Blazers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Monday games.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

I look for the Blazers to come out with a little fire after blowing a fat lead last night against the Lakers. Emotions were high last night after the death of long-time radio announcer Bill Schonely. They came out like gangbusters and ran out of gas in the 3rd quarter, where they were outscored 40-20. My bet is they get back on track vs. a Spurs team that is vying for the number one pick and doesn’t play well on the road.