Suns vs. Nuggets Pick & Predictions for March 27th

Phoenix Suns (42-30 SU, 29-42 ATS) vs. Denver Nuggets (51-21 SU, 33-37 ATS)

When: Wednesday, March 27th, 10:00 PM (ET)

Where: Ball Arena, CO, Denver

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: Pho +7.5/Den -7.5 (Be smart! Bet on games at -105 odds at BAS Sportsbook!)

Total: 226.5

Money Line: Phoenix Suns +248/-311

Notable Injuries

Suns

• Bradley Beal (Questionable) Finger
• Jusuf Nurkic (Questionable) Ankle
• Damion Lee (Out) Knee

Nuggets

• Aaron Gordon (Questionable) Foot
• Nikola Jokic (Probable) Back
• Jamal Murray (Questionable) Knee
• Vlatko Cancar (Out) Knee
• Michael Porter Jr. (Probable) Illness
• Zeke Nnaji (Out) Adductor

In a Western Conference matchup, the Denver Nuggets (51-21) will host the Phoenix Suns (42-30) at Ball Arena. Tip-off is scheduled for 10:00 ET and the game can be seen on ESPN.

According to oddsmakers, the Nuggets (-311) are 7.5-point favorites over the Suns (+248) and the over/under line is set at 226.5 points. Denver has won four straight games and currently holds the top spot in the Western Conference, while Phoenix is 8th in the West.

Recent Form

In games where the average over/under line is 232, the Suns have gone 32-39-1 on the O/U this season. Today’s line of 226.5 is lower than the average line in their games.

Phoenix’s last game vs. the Spurs finished with a combined score of 206 points, falling short of the O/U line of 234.5. The Suns were favored by 12 points but lost the game by a score of 104-102.

On the road, the Suns have an average scoring differential of +2.8 points per game. Against the spread, they are 15-20 on the road and 29-42 overall.

As underdogs, the Suns have gone 6-12 straight-up and 7-11 vs. the spread. This season, they have been the underdog in 18 of their 72 games.

Currently, the Suns are 8th in the Western Conference with a record of 42-30. In non-conference games, they are 19-10 compared to 23-20 against Western Conference opponents.

Today, the Nuggets are looking to extend their winning streak to five games as they host the Suns. Denver is favored by 7.5 points and has a 47-15 record as the favorite this season.

In the Western Conference, the Nuggets are in 1st place with a record of 51-21. In non-conference games, they are 22-6 compared to 29-15 against Western Conference opponents.

At home, the Nuggets have an average scoring margin of +9.9 points per game. Against the spread at home, they are 18-16 and 28-32 as the favorite. This season, they are 29-6 overall at home.

In their most recent game, the Nuggets defeated the Grizzlies by a score of 128-103. The O/U line for that game was 214.5, and Denver covered the spread as 12.5-point favorites.

Denver’s O/U record for the season is 29-41-2, and their games have averaged 224.8 points per game. The over has hit in each of their last four games.

The Historicals

Over the last 5 head to head meetings, the Nuggets have averaged 118 points per game compared to 111 for Phoenix. This has led to an ATS record of 3-2 for Denver. Phoenix and Denver averaged a combined 229 points per game in these games, leading to an over-under mark of 2-2-1.

Analysis

This season, the Suns are one of the top offensive teams in the NBA, averaging 117.1 points per game (10th). On the road, they are scoring 117.0 points per contest.

Phoenix is shooting 49% from the field this season, which is 4th in the league. They are also one of the top free-throw shooting teams, making an average of 19.2 per game (2nd).

In terms of pace, the Suns are 15th in the NBA at 98.4 possessions per game. When it comes to assists, they are averaging 27 per contest (12th).

Coming into the game, the Sun’s defense has held opposing teams to fewer points than the league average in 44.4% of their games. Currently, they are 16th in the NBA at 114.1 points per game allowed. For the season, Phoenix is ranked 24th in fewest fouls per game. The team’s averaging 21.3 free throws per game vs. the Suns and has an overall field goal percentage of 46.4%.

At home, the Nuggets are averaging 119.0 points per game, which is 10th in the league. Overall, they are 14th in scoring at 114.8 points per game. Denver is 5th in field goal percentage at 49% and 11th in true shooting percentage. In terms of pace, the Nuggets are 28th in the NBA.

When it comes to three-point shooting, Denver is last in the league in three-point attempts and 28th in three-point makes. However, they are 9th in two-point shooting percentage. In terms of free throws, the Nuggets are 29th in both makes and attempts.

So far this season, the Nuggets have outscored the NBA scoring average in 48.6% of their games. They are also 2nd in two-pointers made per game and 3rd in assists. In terms of offensive rebounds, Denver is 11th in the league.

At this time, the Nuggets’ defense is positioned 7th in the NBA, permitting 110.0 points per game. The Denver defense has allowed opponents to shoot 35.6% from beyond the arc this season. Opposing teams are also hitting 46.5% of their field goal attempts vs. Denver.

Betting Trends

• In their last three games away from home, the Suns have a straight up record of 1-2 while going 1-2 vs. the spread. The team averaged 120 points per game in this stretch.
• Although Denver has a straight up record of 2-1 in their last three home games, they have not held up as well vs. the spread going 0-3. The team averaged 111 points per game in these games.
• As the betting underdog, the Suns have an ATS mark of just 1-2 in their last three games. Phoenix posted a straight up mark of 1-2 in these matchups.
• Going back to their previous ten games as the favorite, Denver has an ATS mark of 5-5 while going 8-2 straight up.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The Nuggets and Suns cap off a busy night in the NBA, and the Nuggets are favored by 7.5 at home. There are a few big names on the injury report, with Bradley Beal listed as questionable for the Suns. On the other end, Aaron Gordon, Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murry are all present on the injury report. However, given that the line is at -7.5 it seems like the oddsmakers like their chances to play. The Suns need to rack up as many wins as they can to try to claw themselves out of a seed that would put them in the play in the tournament. And although I see the Nuggets winning this one straight-up, I do like the Suns to put up a better performance than they did against the Spurs in their last game. I like Phoenix at +7.5.