Oklahoma City Thunder at Cleveland Cavaliers
Monday, November 2, 2026
7:00 PM ET, Rocket Arena
The Cavaliers are 4.5-point home favorites over the Thunder with the total at 228.5. My play is Under 228.5 (-115).
This was supposed to be one of the marquee nights of the early season. Instead, the Thunder roll into Cleveland held together with tape. Chet Holmgren is out at least two months with a right knee injury. Jalen Williams (broken leg, dislocated ankle) and Cason Wallace (torn labrum) are on long-term absences. Alex Caruso, Thomas Sorber and Nikola Topic are all ruled out on the official injury report too. What’s left is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and a lot of guys still learning where to stand, and the bookmakers have nudged this total up two points from its 226.5 opener anyway. I’m going the other way.
Oklahoma City can’t throw it in the ocean right now
The Thunder opened 4-0 and then fell off a cliff once the injuries stacked up. They lost 120-96 in Dallas and 119-98 in Houston, and the shooting tells you why: 5 of 32 from three against the Mavericks, 10 of 32 against the Rockets. Gilgeous-Alexander is still getting his 26 a night, but the support cast is now Ajay Mitchell, Jared McCain, Kenrich Williams and Bennett Stirtz. Mitchell dropped 29 in Dallas and then managed six in Houston. That’s what life looks like when the second-best healthy scorer changes every night.
Mark Daigneault’s message lately has been blunt. “We’ve got to be better,” he said. “Right now, we have to be a team that’s focused on competing.” That’s a coach asking for effort and defense, not a coach who expects shootouts.
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The Thunder still know how to slow a game to a crawl
Here’s what the injuries haven’t touched: Oklahoma City’s identity. The Thunder play at one of the slowest tempos in the league (26th in pace per Basketball Reference) and still rank ninth in defensive efficiency. Their offense, meanwhile, has slid to 23rd. Fewer trips down the floor plus a sputtering offense is the recipe for an Under, and it shows up in the results. Thunder games have gone under in five of six this season.
Cleveland is the team that can mess this up. The Cavs rank seventh in offensive efficiency and just hung 136 on Milwaukee behind a 48-point second quarter, with Evan Mobley scoring 27 and Jarrett Allen 25. But that came against a 1-5 Bucks team. In Atlanta two nights earlier, Cleveland put up 111 and went through a 16-point quarter. Donovan Mitchell (22.7 points per game) and James Harden (6.3 assists per game) will get theirs. The question is whether the Thunder can keep up, and right now they can’t. Without anyone to space the floor around Gilgeous-Alexander, a Cleveland frontcourt of Allen and Mobley can sit in the paint and dare the role players to shoot.
The case against me
The one home game this short-handed group has played, a 125-114 win over Phoenix on October 26, went well over. If the Cavs’ bigs feast like they did in Milwaukee, Cleveland could hit 120 by itself and drag this Over. Garbage time is a risk too: if the Cavs run away with it, both benches could play loose and fast in the fourth quarter. Peyton Watson is questionable for Cleveland with hamstring soreness, so check the final injury report. With the total spread between 227.5 and 228.5 depending on where you look, I’d take this down to 226. Below that, I’d pass.
Projected score: Cavaliers 115, Thunder 104. Cleveland wins it with its bigs, and Oklahoma City’s offense runs out of answers again somewhere around the third quarter.
The Pick: Under 228.5 (-115)
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