Minnesota Timberwolves (49-33 SU, 46-45 ATS) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (68-14 SU, 57-33 ATS)
Date & Time: Tuesday, May 20th, 2025 | 8:30 PM ET
Location: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
TV Coverage: ESPN
Point Spread: Minnesota Timberwolves +7.5 / Oklahoma City Thunder -7.5
Total: 216 points
Money Line: Minnesota Timberwolves +245 / Oklahoma City Thunder -300
Series Status
This is Game 1 of the Western Conference Series between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Oklahoma City Thunder. The Thunder enter the series after going to Game 7 with the Denver Nuggets in the previous round, which they won 125-93 on Sunday.
Team Analysis
Minnesota Timberwolves (57-35 SU, 46-46 ATS)
- Last 10 Games: 8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS
- Season Scoring: 113.63 points per game (Offense), 108.40 points allowed (Defense)
- Point Differential: +5.23
- ATS Home/Road Split: 21-25 ATS at home, 25-21 ATS on the road
- Over/Under Record: 49-43 overall (28-18 at home, 21-25 away)
Oklahoma City Thunder (76-18 SU, 59-34-1 ATS)
- Last 10 Games: 7-3 SU, 3-7 ATS
- Season Scoring: 119.68 points per game (Offense), 107.12 points allowed (Defense)
- Point Differential: +12.56
- ATS Home/Road Split: 33-15-1 ATS at home, 26-19 ATS on the road
- Over/Under Record: 51-42-1 overall (28-20-1 at home, 23-22 away)
Previous Game Recap
Minnesota Timberwolves
Final Score: Minnesota Timberwolves 121, Golden State Warriors 110
The Timberwolves improved to 57-35 on the season with a 121-110 win over the Warriors on Wednesday. Playing at home, Minnesota entered the game as a -9.5-point favorite and covered the spread. The total points for the game reached 231, well over the pre-game line of 203.5.
Minnesota took control early, leading 30-23 after the 1st quarter and extending their lead to 93-72 by the end of the 3rd. Although the Warriors outscored them 38-28 in the 4th, the Timberwolves had built a large enough lead to secure the win.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Final Score: Oklahoma City Thunder 125, Denver Nuggets 93
The Thunder improved to 76-18 this season with a dominant 125-93 win over the Nuggets on Sunday. Playing at home, Oklahoma City covered the -8.5-point spread, while the game’s total of 218 points narrowly exceeded the O/U line of 214.5.
After trailing 26-21 at the end of the 1st quarter, the Thunder went on a 13-0 run, turning the game around by outscoring Denver 39-20 in the 2nd quarter. They continued to pull away, winning the 3rd quarter 37-26 and the 4th quarter 28-21.
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Start Saving Today!Key Player Performances
Minnesota Timberwolves
- Julius Randle: 29 points, 8 rebounds, 72.2% FG
- Anthony Edwards: 22 points, 12 assists, 5 three-pointers (55.6%)
- Rudy Gobert: 17 points, 88.9% FG
The Timberwolves shot 62.8% as a team, with a 41.9% mark from three, making 13 threes overall.
Oklahoma City Thunder
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 35 points, 63.2% FG, 3 three-pointers (75%)
- Jalen Williams: 24 points (17 in the 2nd quarter)
- Chet Holmgren: 13 points, 11 rebounds
Oklahoma City shot 49% overall but struggled from beyond the arc, hitting 12 threes at just 30.8%.
Defensive Analysis
Minnesota Timberwolves
The Timberwolves put together a strong defensive performance through the first three quarters, allowing 23 points in the 1st, 24 in the 2nd, and 25 in the 3rd. However, they gave up 38 points in the 4th quarter but still managed to secure the win over the Warriors.
Minnesota held Golden State to 43% shooting from the field, including just 28% from three-point range, with the Warriors making 11 threes. The Timberwolves also recorded 11 steals and four blocks in the game.
Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder put on a defensive clinic against the Nuggets, holding them to just 93 points on Sunday. Oklahoma City allowed 26 points in both the 1st and 3rd quarters but tightened up in the 2nd and 4th, giving up just 20 and 21 points, respectively.
From beyond the arc, the Thunder limited Denver to 10 made threes on 22% shooting. Oklahoma City also came away with 16 steals and recorded three blocks in the game.
Head-to-Head History
In the last 10 meetings between these teams, Minnesota holds a 6-4 advantage straight up and a 6-3-1 record against the spread. The average score in these matchups has been Minnesota 112.3, Oklahoma City 111.2.
The games have been remarkably close, with recent matchups particularly favoring the Timberwolves. In their most recent meeting on February 24, 2025, Minnesota won 131-128 as an 11.5-point road underdog.
The Over/Under record in these matchups is 4-6, with the more recent games trending toward higher scoring totals.
Statistical Comparison
| Category | Minnesota | Oklahoma City |
|---|---|---|
| Offense (PPG) | 113.63 | 119.68 |
| Defense (PPG Allowed) | 108.40 | 107.12 |
| Point Differential | +5.23 | +12.56 |
| Field Goal % | 46.79% | 47.69% |
| Defensive Field Goal % | 45.76% | 43.30% |
| Rebounds Per Game | 44.04 | 44.95 |
| Assists Per Game | 25.99 | 26.55 |
| Turnovers Per Game | 13.67 | 10.99 |
Notable Injuries
Minnesota Timberwolves
- No Injuries Reported
Oklahoma City Thunder
- Nikola Topić (Out) Knee
Betting Trends
Minnesota Timberwolves
- 7-1 SU in their last 8 games
- 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games
- 5-1 SU in their last 6 games on the road
- 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games on the road
- Last 5 Games: 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS, 3-2 Over/Under
- 12-5 SU in their last 17 games against Oklahoma City
- 6-2 SU and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games at Oklahoma City
- The total has gone OVER in 11 of their last 15 games at Oklahoma City
Oklahoma City Thunder
- 12-3 SU in their last 15 games
- 6-1 SU in their last 7 games at home
- 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games at home
- Last 5 Games: 3-2 SU, 1-4 ATS, 2-3 Over/Under
- 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against Minnesota
- 2-6 SU in their last 8 games at home against Minnesota
- Last 10 games as favorite: 1-4 ATS
Analysis & Prediction
Despite Oklahoma City’s superior regular season record (76-18 vs. Minnesota’s 57-35) and impressive point differential (+12.56 vs. +5.23), there are several factors that suggest the Timberwolves could keep this game competitive:
- Recent Form: Minnesota enters on a 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS run in their last 8 games, while Oklahoma City has struggled against the spread (1-4 ATS in their last 5 games).
- Head-to-Head Advantage: Minnesota has dominated this matchup recently, going 12-5 SU in their last 17 games against the Thunder and 6-2 both SU and ATS in their last 8 games in Oklahoma City.
- Thunder’s Fatigue Factor: Oklahoma City is coming off a seven-game series against Denver that concluded with their Game 7 win on Sunday, giving them minimal rest before this series opener.
- Contrasting Home/Road ATS Performance: The Timberwolves have been much better ATS on the road (25-21) than at home (21-25), while the Thunder have struggled at home recently against the spread against Minnesota.
The betting line of Oklahoma City -7.5 appears to overvalue the Thunder based on these factors. While Oklahoma City has the statistical edge in most categories, particularly scoring offense (119.68 PPG vs. 113.63 PPG), Minnesota matches up well historically against them and has been the more reliable team against the spread lately.
The total of 216 points aligns with the season averages of both teams, but the head-to-head history suggests a slight lean toward the over, as 11 of the last 15 meetings in Oklahoma City have gone over the total.
Betting Pick
Minnesota Timberwolves +7.5
With Minnesota’s strong historical performance in Oklahoma City (6-2 ATS in their last 8), their recent 6-2 ATS run, and the Thunder’s fatigue factor coming off a seven-game series, the Timberwolves should keep this game competitive enough to cover the spread.
