Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies Game 5 Pick

by | Apr 26, 2022 | nba

Minnesota Timberwolves (49-38 SU, 45-40-2 ATS) vs. Memphis Grizzlies (58-28 SU, 54-31-1 ATS)

When: Tuesday April 26 2022, 07:30 PM (ET)

Where: FedEx Forum, Memphis, Tennesee

TV: BSN

Point Spread: MIN +6.5/MEM -6.5 (Opened MEM -7 at Bovada - 50% bonus up to $250 free!)

Total: 232.5 (Opened at 232.5)

Money Line: Minnesota 211/Memphis -261

Power Rating: MEM -7

Probable Starting Lineups

Memphis Grizzlies PG Tyus Jones, SG Dillon Brooks, SF Desmond Bane, PF Jaren Jackson Jr., C Kyle Anderson

Minnesota Timberwolves PG Patrick Beverley, SG D’Angelo Russell, SF Anthony Edwards, PF Jarred Vanderbilt, C Karl-Anthony Towns

Key Injuries

Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota has no reported injuries at this time.

Memphis Grizzlies
Santi Aldama: Knee (OUT)
Tyrell Terry: Foot (QUESTIONABLE)
Killian Tillie: Back (OUT)

The Memphis Grizzlies host the Minnesota Timberwolves in a Western-Conference matchup. Tip-off is set for 07:30 PM ET at the FedEx Forum.

Recent Form

The Minnesota Timberwolves come into this game with an overall record of 46-36, placing them 7th in the Western Conference. Throughout the season, Minnesota has struggled in their 43 road contests, sitting at 21-22. Over their last five games, the Timberwolves have played well, picking up 3 wins. In this stretch, Minnesota’s offense is scoring right in line with their season average, putting up 110.0 points per game. Combined, the Timberwolves’ last five opponents are giving up 110.0 points per contest. The Timberwolves have been picking up wins while holding opponents to an average of 113.0 points per game, similar to their season average of 113.3. In the Minnesota Timberwolves’ most recent game, Minnesota took down Memphis by a score of 119-118

The Memphis Grizzlies come into this game with an overall record of 56-26, placing them 2nd in the Western Conference. So far, Memphis is above .500 at home, holding a record of 31-12. Over the Grizzlies’ last five games, they have picked up just 2 wins. In this stretch, Memphis’s offense is scoring right in line with their season average, putting up 115.0 points per game. Combined, the Grizzlies’ last five opponents are giving up 112.0 points per contest. A key reason for the Grizzlies’ recent struggles is a defensive unit giving up 116.0 points over their last five contests. This figure is up from their season average of 109.9.In the Memphis Grizzlies’ most recent game, the team fell to Minnesota by a score of 119-118.

Individual Player Analysis

As Minnesota travels to take on the Memphis Grizzlies, the Timberwolves’ leading scorer is Karl-Anthony Towns. Through 77 games, Towns is averaging 24 points. On the season, he has surpassed his season average in 49.0% of his games. As Towns gets set to take on the Grizzlies, he could be in line for a big game as Memphis is allowing their opponent’s top scorer to surpass their season average in 53.52% of their games. This figure places them 26th among NBA defenses. On the other side, Ja Morant leads the Grizzlies in scoring, averaging 27 points across his 57 games. Throughout the season, Morant has outscored his season average in 49.0% of his outings. On the season, the Timberwolves have allowed their opponent’s top scorer to surpass their season average in 50.0% of their games, giving them a rank of 15th among NBA defenses.

Matchup Analysis

Heading into this matchup, the Memphis Grizzlies are the more efficient team on both ends of the court. This scenario has taken place in 31 of Memphis’s 80 games, leading to a winning percentage of 74%. So far, the Minnesota Timberwolves have played 9 games as the inferior offensive and defensive unit. In these instances, they have lost 9 times, by an average margin of -12.0 points.

The Historicals

Heading into today’s matchup, the Minnesota Timberwolves and Memphis Grizzlies have met up for 8 games. In their last meeting, Minnesota picked up a 119-118 win.

How the Public is Betting the Timberwolves vs Grizzlies

67% are betting the Grizzlies against the spread.

52% are wagering on the game to go over the posted total of 232.5

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Betting Trends Worth Noting

  • Timberwolves are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games playing on 2 days rest.
  • Timberwolves are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Grizzlies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
  • Grizzlies are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up loss.

Joe’s Pick to Cover the Spread

The Memphis Grizzlies and Minnesota Timberwolves come into this matchup all tied up at 2 games apiece, as each team is looking to get a leg up in the series. After blowing an excellent opportunity in game 3, the Wolves held off the Grizzlies for an impressive win at home. Now, the series shifts back to Memphis, where Minnesota already has picked up a win. With the spread sitting 6.5 points in favor of the Grizzlies, the home team will be looking for a better defensive performance on the perimeter, as they allowed Minnesota to knock down 50% of their three-point shots. However, because they knocked down 15 threes of their own, they were able to keep the game within reach and nearly pulled off a road win. Look for this matchup to be closer than the spread suggests. I recommend taking Minnesota to cover as the 6.5 point underdogs. Question: Did you know that you can bet on games at -105 odds instead of -110? Most don’t take the time to sit down and figure out how much money they’d have saved if they were betting at reduced odds. BIG mistake!