Warriors vs. Grizzlies Game 1 Predictions

by | May 1, 2022 | nba

Golden State Warriors (57-30 SU, 44-39-4 ATS) vs. Memphis Grizzlies (60-28 SU, 55-32-1 ATS)
When: Sunday May 01 2022, 03:30 PM (ET)
Where: FedEx Forum, Memphis, Tennesee
TV: N

Point Spread: GSW -2/MEM +2 (Opened GSW -2.5 at Bovada)
Total: 221 (Opened at 217.5)
Money Line: Golden State -132/Memphis 110
Power Rating: GSW -2

Probable Starting Lineups

Golden State Warriors PG Stephen Curry, SG Jordan Poole, SF Klay Thompson, PF Andrew Wiggins, C Draymond Green
Memphis Grizzlies PG Ja Morant, SG Dillon Brooks, SF Desmond Bane, PF Jaren Jackson Jr., C Xavier Tillman

Key Injuries

Golden State Warriors Andre Iguodala: Neck (OUT) James Wiseman: Knee (OUT)

Memphis Grizzlies Tyrell Terry: Foot (QUESTIONABLE) Santi Aldama: Knee (QUESTIONABLE) Ziaire Williams: Knee (QUESTIONABLE) Steven Adams: Illness (OUT) Killian Tillie: Back (OUT)

The Memphis Grizzlies host the Golden State Warriors in a Western-Conference matchup. Tip-off is set for 03:30 PM ET at the FedEx Forum.

Recent Form

The Golden State Warriors come into this game with an overall record of 53-29, placing them 3rd in the Western Conference. So far, Golden State is above .500 on the road, holding a record of 23-20. Over their last five games, the Warriors have played well, picking up 4 wins. During this stretch, Golden State is averaging 118.0 points per game, 7.0 points more than their season average of 111.4. This uptick in offensive play has come while playing a group of opponents who are collectively giving up 111.0 points per contest. Even though Golden State has been picking up wins, their opponents have had no trouble scoring the ball, averaging 110.0 points per game, up from the Warriors’ usual rate of 105.7. In the Golden State Warriors’ most recent game, Golden State took down Denver by a score of 102-98

The Memphis Grizzlies come into this game with an overall record of 56-26, placing them 2nd in the Western Conference. So far, Memphis is above .500 at home, holding a record of 32-12. The Grizzlies have played well over their last five games, picking up 4 wins. In this stretch, Memphis’s offense is scoring right in line with their season average, putting up 114.0 points per game. Combined, the Grizzlies’ last five opponents are giving up 113.0 points per contest. The Grizzlies come into this game also playing well defensively, holding their opponents to just 105.0 points per game. An improvement on their season average of 109.9. In the Memphis Grizzlies’ most recent game, Memphis took down Minnesota by a score of 114-106.

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Individual Player Analysis

As Golden State travels to take on the Memphis Grizzlies, the Warriors’ leading scorer is Stephen Curry. Through 64 games, Curry is averaging 25 points. On the season, he has surpassed his season average in 45.0% of his games. As Curry gets set to take on the Grizzlies, he could be in line for a big game as Memphis is allowing their opponent’s top scorer to surpass their season average in 53.03% of their games. This figure places them 25th among NBA defenses. On the other side, Ja Morant leads the Grizzlies in scoring, averaging 27 points across his 57 games. Throughout the season, Morant has outscored his season average in 49.0% of his outings. Given that Golden State’s defense has struggled to slow down their opponent’s top scorers, Ja Morant should be in line for a big performance. So far, the Warriors have allowed their opponent’s top scorer to surpass their season average in 51.61% of their games, giving them a rank of 21st among NBA defenses.

Matchup Analysis

The Grizzlies come into this game as the more efficient offensive team, averaging 110.6 points per 100 possessions. When playing as the superior offensive unit, Memphis is winning at a rate of 76%. These wins are coming by an average margin of 20.0 points. On the other side, the Warriors hold the advantage on the defensive end of the floor. So far, they have played 40 games as the better defensive team, picking up 21 wins.

The Historicals

Heading into today’s matchup, the Golden State Warriors and Memphis Grizzlies have met up for 4 games. In their last meeting, Memphis picked up a 123-95 win.

How the Public is Betting the Warriors vs Grizzlies

67% are betting the Warriors against the spread.
52% are wagering on the game to go over the posted total of 221

Betting Trends Worth Noting

  • Warriors are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
  • Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight-up win.
  • Grizzlies are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
  • Grizzlies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog.

Joe’s Pick to Cover the Spread

In what should be a highly entertaining 2nd round Western Conference series, the Grizzlies host the Warriors for game 1. The Warriors come into this matchup, clicking on all cylinders after dominating their series against Denver. This strong performance came despite Stephen Curry using the series to work himself back into form. It appears that the time spent without Curry due to injury has helped elevate the play of Jordan Poole, as he has emerged as another scoring threat for the team. On the other side, Memphis is coming a first-round series in which they were tested by Minnesota. However, several key comeback performances helped the team advance in 6 games. Look for Golden State to take game 1, as they are not only rolling on offense, but their elite defensive play has returned at just the right time.