Warriors vs. Lakers Betting Analysis & Prediction 3/5/23

Golden State Warriors (34-30 SU, 31-32-1 ATS) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (30-34 SU, 30-31-3 ATS)
When: Sunday, March 5th, 3:30 PM (ET)
Where: Crypto.com Arena, CA, Los Angeles
TV: ABC

Point Spread: GS -5.0/LAL +5
Total: 235.0
Money Line: Golden State Warriors -204/+169

Notable Injuries

Warriors

• Stephen Curry (Probable) Leg
• Andre Iguodala (Probable) Hip
• Andrew Wiggins (Out) Personal
• Gary Payton II (Out) Abdominal
• Patrick Baldwin Jr. (Questionable) Ankle
• Ryan Rollins (Out) Foot

Lakers

• Anthony Davis (Probable) Foot
• LeBron James (Out) Foot
• D’Angelo Russell (Out) Ankle

Recent Form

Heading into the game, Golden State is 34-30 overall. When taking to the road, Golden State has a mark of 7-23 and a win percentage of 23%. Currently, the team is 5th in the Western Conference. So far, they are 31-32-1 vs. the spread. In their matchup against Los Angeles, the Golden State Warriors have won 5 straight games and will look to push that mark to 6 in a row.

In their last game, Golden State defeated the Pelicans (108-99) as 5 point favorites. Klay Thompson led the team with 27 points on 58.8% shooting. The Warriors also covered the spread with the victory.

Heading into the game, Los Angeles is 30-34 overall. When playing at home, Los Angeles has a mark of 15-15 and a win percentage of 50%. Currently, the team is 11th in the Western Conference. So far, they are 30-31-3 vs. the spread. In Los Angeles’ last five games, the Lakers have a straight-up record of 3-2 while going 3-2 in those games. Going back to the last 10, they are 5-5 and 5-5 ATS.

In their most recent game, Los Angeles was unable to come home with a victory against the Timberwolves, losing by a score of 110-102. Despite Anthony Davis leading the team with 38 points, the Lakers were unable to overcome their status as 1-point underdogs. The Lakers also ended up with an ATS loss in the game.

The Historicals

In the most recent matchup between the two teams, the Warriors picked up the 123-109 win over the Lakers. The Warriors’ margin of victory was enough to cover the spread as 7.5 point favorite. So far this season, the Lakers have a record of 2-1 vs. the Warriors. Through the last five matchups between the teams, Los Angeles has an ATS mark of 3-2. But, looking at the scoring margin in these games, an average of just 1 point per game separates the teams. Over the course of these games, they averaged 231 points per game, leading a 3-2 over-under record.

Analysis

This season, Golden State is among the league leaders in scoring, averaging 118.2 points per game. So far, the Warriors are also one of the more up-tempo teams in the league, sitting at 102.0 possessions per game. The Warriors have been able to put together a strong offensive attack despite sitting just 4th in a 3-point shooting percentage. Overall, they are among the league leaders in attempts at 42.9 attempts per game. Defensively, the Warriors have been one of the best units in the NBA, allowing just 105.46 points per game. So far, they have done an excellent job defending the 3-point arc, allowing teams to hit just 33.92%.

Jordan Poole is the top scorer for Golden State, averaging 21.0 points per game. This season, his field goal percentage is 43.0%. The team’s second-leading scorer is Klay Thompson, with an average of 22.1 points per game.

This season, Los Angeles is among the league leaders in scoring, averaging 116.8 points per game. So far, the Lakers are also one of the more up-tempo teams in the league, sitting at 102.4 possessions per game. Los Angeles has struggled with their 3-point shot this season, as they are currently ranked just 26th in 3-point shooting percentage at 34.0%. In addition, they are near the bottom of the league in attempts, at just 31.1 attempts per contest. The defense has been an issue for Los Angeles, as they currently allow 115.15 points per game. In terms of their 3-point defense, opposing teams have hit 35.38% of their looks from deep, placing the Lakers 18th in the NBA.

It’s important to note that the Lakers will be without their top two scorers, LeBron James and D’Angelo Russell, for today’s game. This year, James has been putting up 29.5 points per game, while Russell has been averaging 17.6 points per game.

Betting Trends

• The Warriors are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.
• The Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win.
• The Lakers are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
• The Lakers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 Sunday games.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Anytime a player returns to a lineup, it takes time to re-establish chemistry. Even a team like the Warriors, which Curry has played for many years. I also like the Lakers to be motivated playing on national TV. I’m betting on the Lakers, plus the points.