Atlanta Falcons vs. New York Jets Pick ATS

by | Aug 20, 2022 | nfl

Atlanta Falcons (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) vs. New York Jets (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS)

When: Monday, August 22, 8 p.m.

Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, N.J.

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: ATL -2/NYJ +2 (BAS - Offers Reduced Odds! Save $$$!)

Total: O/U 38.5

Outlook

The Jets paid the price for trying to get Zach Wilson some extra action in the preseason, and the odds are that they’re going to be a lot more cautious with things this time around. That could be why the line has moved toward the Falcons, who might opt to try to go a little longer with their starters than the Jets will.

Or maybe not, as the teams held joint practices this week at the Jets’ facility in Florham Park, which might lead to them opting to hold the starters out entirely and get the backups through the actual game as quickly as possible. That proved to be the case when the Broncos and Cowboys faced each other after holding joint practices, as Dallas didn’t get anything done at all against Denver in that game. But Miami and Tampa Bay went the other way, putting up 50 points in their preseason game because their third-string quarterbacks went crazy and completed more than 70% of their passes. How this turns out will depend on how aggressive Desmond Ridder and Mike White choose to be with the ball.

How the Public is Betting the Falcons/Jets Game

The public is a little worried about the Jets backing off and has ticked the line up from Atlanta -1.5 to Atlanta -2. The total is where things have really fallen to the earth, with the number coming down from 42.5 to 38.5.

Injury Concerns

Atlanta:
Long snapper Beau Brinkley (undisclosed), defensive lineman Marlon Davidson (knee), defensive back Cornell Armstrong (undisclosed), defensive tackle Vincent Taylor (Achilles), linebacker Deion Jones (shoulder), cornerback Isaiah Oliver (knee), and wide receiver Calvin Ridley (suspension) are out.

New York Jets:
Quarterback Zach Wilson (knee), tackle Mekhi Becton (knee), and tackle Greg Senat (undisclosed) are out.

When Atlanta Has the Ball

One of the first things Desmond Ridder said at the NFL scouting combine was that if he could have one thing in the NFL, he’d want to be on the same team as college teammate Ahmad Gardner so that he didn’t have to go up against him in the secondary. That didn’t happen, and now Ridder faces the very real prospect of possibly having to face Gardner in this game if the Jets still have their defensive starters in the game.

Given that the Falcons got Marcus Mariota some work in the joint practices against the Jets, there’s a good chance Ridder will play almost the entire game. Atlanta only has two full-time quarterbacks on the roster now, as No. 3 Feleipe Franks is trying to switch over to tight end. With Atlanta unlikely to play Mariota much at all and Ridder needing reps to ensure he’s ready to take over if Mariota gets hurt, the Falcons are likely to keep the rookie on the field for close to the entire game. He struggled against the Lions, but reports suggest that he is showing signs of improvement.

When the New York Jets Have the Ball

With Wilson now hurt and Joe Flacco unlikely to go anywhere near the field, it’s difficult to see the Jets putting up that many points in this game. However, there’s one reason to expect something different here: the presence of Chris Streveler on the roster. Streveler is now competing openly with Mike White for the No. 3 quarterback job on the green side of New York, and based off the way he threw the ball against the Eagles, White has a fight on his hands.
The Jets’ ground game wasn’t much against the Eagles, as Breece Hall didn’t look ready for the job, and nobody else stepped up besides La’Mical Perine. If it weren’t for two runs from Streveler — far more mobile than White — the Jets would have averaged a mere 3.4 yards per carry against Philadelphia. Atlanta slowed down the Lions’ ground game last week, but Tom Kennedy had eight catches for 104 yards, so this might be the ideal time for the Jets to attack the Falcons’ secondary and see what their deep reserve quarterbacks can do.

Betting Trends

The Jets have yet to lose in the preseason under Robert Saleh, going 3-0-1 in four overall meetings with him as the coach. The Falcons have been a bit of a sieve on defense in the preseason under Arthur Smith, never giving up less than 19 points in a preseason game while notching a 1-3 overall record in the preseason.

Weather Report

The good news is that the temperature will drop to a mild 67 degrees in New Jersey by the time the teams kick-off. The bad news is the humidity from the afternoon storms will still be in place, so it’s not likely to be great football conditions. Wind will blow at five miles per hour to the west-southwest.

Dan’s Pick to Cover the Spread

With the Jets now in a legitimate battle at quarterback for the No. 3 spot, they might actually have some motivation, along with facing a Falcons team that has really struggled to stop anyone for several seasons now. As long as New York doesn’t go into a shell following the Wilson injury, this number gives the Jets an excellent chance to cover. My main bet is the over, but beyond it, I will back the Jets.. NEW! Get a massive 125% real cash bonus up to $400 in free bets and a free point every time you bet your favorite basketball or football team when you use bonus code PREDICTEM at GTBets Sportsbook!

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