Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills Divisional Round Pick

by | Jan 12, 2021 | nfl

Baltimore Ravens (12-5 SU, 11-5-1 ATS) vs. Buffalo Bills (14-3 SU, 11-6 ATS)

AFC Divisional Playoffs Preview

Date/Time: Saturday January 16th, 2021. 8:15PM (EST)

Where: Bills Stadium Orchard Park, NY

TV:NBC

Point Spread:BAL +2/BUF -2 (BetNow) - Deposit $100 to $1000 and receive a 100% REAL CASH bonus! The best bonus offer we’ve ever seen from a legit online sportsbook!

Over/Under Total: 50

Last week, the Buffalo Bills ended one of the NFL’s longest postseason droughts with their 27-24 victory over the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC Wild Card playoff match-up. Bills QB Josh Allen proved to be worthy of the big stage by completing 26 of 35 passing for 324 yards with two touchdowns and another 54 yards and a touchdown on the ground. With the victory, the Bills snapped a 25-year postseason winless streak. As the AFC’s overall #2 seed, the Bills will get the opportunity to host another playoff game this Saturday when they battle the Baltimore Ravens to earn a ticket to the AFC Championship Game.

The visiting Ravens exorcised a few demons in last week’s Wild Card match-up. After being knocked out of the playoffs by the Titans last season and losing another 30-24 overtime thriller in week 11, the Ravens finally exacted revenge thanks to QB Lamar Jackson’s elusive running ability combined with a tremendous effort from the Baltimore defense that held Tennessee running back Derrick Henry to just 40 yards on 18 carries. Despite a subpar offensive performance, Lamar Jackson rushed for 136 yards and provided the clutch plays down the stretch to pull out the victory. Now the Ravens will continue their playoff vendetta as mere 3 point underdogs on the road at Buffalo.

Ravens seeking 8th straight cover ATS

Going into last year’s postseason, I think every NFL enthusiast on the planet thought the Ravens would battle the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game, so it was kind of surprising when the Tennessee Titans delivered a surprising upset. Last year’s hype was built around Lamar Jackson’s breakout MVP campaign combined with a unique multi-dimensional offense that proved to be extremely difficult to defend. Admittedly, the Ravens have not had the success we witnessed a year ago when comparing raw statistics. However, I do believe that a large portion of bettors has surprisingly counted out the Ravens’ chances towards a deep playoff run.

For starters, the Ravens offense is still difficult to defend, and even when you play them well, Lamar Jackson has the ability to break games wide open as we saw in last week’s win over the Titans. Furthermore, the Ravens’ defense has been playing exceptional football during the 2nd half of the season. Granted, the schedule has been favorable; the Ravens’ have still held five of their past six opponents to 17 points or less. Despite the uptick in performance on both sides of the ball, oddsmakers continue to yield value to the Ravens on a near-weekly basis. The Ravens have covered seven straight games ATS and are also 5-0 ATS as outright underdogs going back to last year. As a result, Baltimore has an excellent opportunity to keep both of those streaks alive on Saturday in another advantageous match-up.

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Baltimore vs. Buffalo Betting Analysis

When I breakdown this week’s match-up between the Ravens and Bills, we have legitimate arguments for both teams. I mentioned above that the Ravens have played well on both sides of the ball, which should not be undermined. Likewise, the Buffalo Bills still don’t get the credit they deserve. The Bills’ offense is not flashy and does not produce tons of big plays. However, they are extremely efficient with Allen behind center combined with the offseason addition of WR Stefon Diggs, who led the NFL throughout the regular season with 127 catches for 1,535 yards and eight touchdowns. Simply put, Buffalo has yielded strong offensive numbers throughout the season on a near-weekly basis which includes last week’s victory against one of the best defenses in the NFL.

In all honesty, I believe the line is pretty sharp. I give Buffalo the slightest edge due to their consistency and efficiency. However, I tend to favor Baltimore in the outright match-up. Instead of making a risky play on the side, I think the best play on this board surrounds the total. We have two of the NFL’s most talented dual-threat quarterbacks colliding in a game that will send the winner to the AFC Championship. This is a high stakes game, and I am expecting both offenses to make plays with Allen and Jackson trying to outperform the other. Both the Ravens and Bills have trended towards the under in seven of their last ten games, but that has been mainly due to the competition combined with negative game scripts. I’m expecting a high-paced game with plenty of scoring opportunities between two of the AFC’s best playmakers. Consider a sharp play on the “over,” which has a high probability of being surpassed.

Ravens vs. Bills Betting Trends

  • The Ravens are 7-0 ATS in the last seven games.
  • The Ravens are 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings against Buffalo.
  • The Ravens are 4-1 SU in the last five meetings against Buffalo.
  • The Ravens are 13-2 SU in the last 15 games on the road.
  • The Bills are 8-1 ATS in the last nine games.
  • The Bills are 3-6 ATS in the last nine meetings against the Ravens.
  • The Bills have hit the “over” in 12 of the last 17 games.
  • The Bills have hit the “under” in seven of the last nine meetings against the Ravens.

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