Betting Road Favorites in the NFL


Betting Theory - Wager against road teams when they are laying more than 7 points. Over 62% NFL handicapping angle since 1997!


Since free agency started depending on which side of the fence you are on the NFL has been cursed or blessed with parity. Any given team can not only cover the spread each week, but can actually grab a straight up win

We should have titled this “Don’t bet on road favorites giving more than 7 points.
We have always preached to look for value in the underdog in any NFL point spread wager and preferably a home pointspread dog, which has historically been an even better bet.

So why would any bettor with any knowledge on how to handicap the NFL place any bets on a big road fav? If you answered “they wouldn’t”, then you are not in the class of the many weekend handicappers (squares) that continue to lay their action down on road favorites and you’re probably not sending your bookies kids to college.

Since 1997 there have been 104 games that the odds maker set a line on a road team of 7 or more points. In those games the road betting line favorite has a record of 38-63-3 for a 37.6 winning percentage. If you wagered against the road team in these situations you’d have been cashing your ticket at the betting window over 62% of the time. Last season was one of the most profitable for this wagering angle as the underdog won 8 of the 10 games.

Below I have included the games that fit this handicapping situation since 1997.

Date Match-up Final Fav ATS
Sep 7 1997 Green Bay Packers -7½ @ Philadelphia Eagles Eagles 10-9 Lost
Sep 7 1997 Dallas Cowboys -9½ @ Arizona Cardinals Cardinals 25-22 Lost
Sep 28 1997 Denver Broncos -11 @ Atlanta Falcons Broncos 29-21 Lost
Sep 28 1997 Green Bay Packers -7½ @ Detroit Lions Lions 26-15 Lost
Oct 5 1997 Dallas Cowboys -7½ @ New York Giants Giants 20-17 Lost
Oct 12 1997 Green Bay Packers -11½ @ Chicago Bears Packers 24-23 Lost
Oct 19 1997 San Francisco 49ers -10½ @ Atlanta Falcons 49ers 35-28 Lost
Oct 26 1997 San Francisco 49ers -13½ @ New Orleans Saints 49ers 23-0 Won
Nov 16 1997 Green Bay Packers -13 @ Indianapolis Colts Colts 41-38 Lost
Nov 30 1997 Denver Broncos -8½ @ San Diego Chargers Broncos 38-28 Won
Dec 14 1997 Kansas City Chiefs -9½ @ San Diego Chargers Chiefs 29-7 Won
Sep 6 1998 Jacksonville Jaguars -10 @ Chicago Bears Jaguars 24-23 Lost
Sep 13 1998 Minnesota Vikings -7½ @ St Louis Rams Vikings 38-31 Lost
Sep 27 1998 Kansas City Chiefs -8 @ Philadelphia Eagles Chiefs 24-21 Lost
Oct 4 1998 San Francisco 49ers -10 @ Buffalo Bills Bills 26-21 Lost
Oct 11 1998 San Francisco 49ers -10½ @ New Orleans Saints 49ers 31-0 Won
Oct 25 1998 San Francisco 49ers -9½ @ St Louis Rams 49ers 28-10 Won
Nov 1 1998 Denver Broncos -11 @ Cincinnati Bengals Broncos 33-26 Lost
Nov 29 1998 Denver Broncos -13 @ San Diego Chargers Broncos 31-16 Won
Dec 6 1998 San Francisco 49ers -9½ @ Carolina Panthers 49ers 31-28 Lost
Dec 13 1998 Denver Broncos -13 @ New York Giants Giants 20-16 Lost
Dec 13 1998 Minnesota Vikings -10 @ Baltimore Ravens Vikings 38-28 Push
Sep 19 1999 Jacksonville Jaguars -9½ @ Carolina Panthers Jaguars 22-20 Lost
Oct 3 1999 New England Patriots -12 @ Cleveland Browns Patriots 19-7 Push
Oct 10 1999 Dallas Cowboys -9½ @ Philadelphia Eagles Eagles 13-10 Lost
Oct 31 1999 Jacksonville Jaguars -12½ @ Cincinnati Bengals Jaguars 41-10 Won
Nov 14 1999 Tennessee Titans -10 @ Cincinnati Bengals Titans 24-14 Push
Nov 21 1999 St Louis Rams -7½ @ San Francisco 49ers Rams 23-7 Won
Nov 28 1999 Tennessee Titans -10½ @ Cleveland Browns Titans 33-21 Won
Dec 12 1999 St Louis Rams -10½ @ New Orleans Saints Rams 30-14 Won
Dec 19 1999 Jacksonville Jaguars -14½ @ Cleveland Browns Jaguars 24-14 Lost
Dec 24 1999 Dallas Cowboys -8½ @ New Orleans Saints Saints 31-24 Lost
Dec 26 1999 Indianapolis Colts -13½ @ Cleveland Browns Colts 29-28 Lost
Jan 2 2000 St Louis Rams -8 @ Philadelphia Eagles Eagles 38-31 Lost
Sep 3 2000 Jacksonville Jaguars -10½ @ Cleveland Browns Jaguars 27-7 Won
Sep 10 2000 St Louis Rams -7½ @ Seattle Seahawks Rams 37-34 Lost
Oct 1 2000 Baltimore Ravens -8½ @ Cleveland Browns Ravens 12-0 Won
Oct 8 2000 Tennessee Titans -10 @ Cincinnati Bengals Titans 23-14 Lost
Oct 22 2000 Denver Broncos -10 @ Cincinnati Bengals Bengals 31-21 Lost
Nov 5 2000 New York Giants -10 @ Cleveland Browns Giants 24-3 Won
Nov 5 2000 Washington Redskins -10 @ Arizona Cardinals Cardinals 16-15 Lost
Nov 19 2000 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8 @ Chicago Bears Bears 13-10 Lost
Dec 3 2000 St Louis Rams -8 @ Carolina Panthers Panthers 16-3 Lost
Dec 10 2000 Philadelphia Eagles -14 @ Cleveland Browns Eagles 35-24 Lost
Dec 17 2000 Jacksonville Jaguars -10½ @ Cincinnati Bengals Bengals 17-14 Lost
Dec 17 2000 Tennessee Titans -16 @ Cleveland Browns Titans 24-0 Won
Dec 17 2000 Baltimore Ravens -15 @ Arizona Cardinals Ravens 13-7 Lost
Sep 9 2001 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -9 @ Dallas Cowboys Buccaneers 10-6/td> Lost
Sep 23 2001 Denver Broncos -8½ @ Arizona Cardinals Broncos 38-17 Won
Sep 30 2001 Indianapolis Colts -11½ @ New England Patriots Patriots 44-13 Lost
Oct 8 2001 St Louis Rams -12½ @ Detroit Lions Rams 35-0 Won
Oct 21 2001 Baltimore Ravens -7½ @ Cleveland Browns Browns 24-14 Lost
Oct 28 2001 New York Giants -7½ @ Washington Redskins Redskins 35-21 Lost
Nov 18 2001 St Louis Rams -8½ @ New England Patriots Rams 24-17 Lost
Dec 2 2001 St Louis Rams -8 @ Atlanta Falcons Rams 35-6 Won
Dec 23 2001 St Louis Rams -12½ @ Carolina Panthers Rams 38-32 Lost
Dec 30 2001 Pittsburgh Steelers -8 @ Cincinnati Bengals Bengals 26-23 Lost
Sep 8 2002 Dallas Cowboys -8½ @ Houston Texans Texans 19-10 Lost
Sep 22 2002 Indianapolis Colts -10½ @ Houston Texans Colts 23-3 Won
Sep 22 2002 Green Bay Packers -7½ @ Detroit Lions Packers 37-31 Lost
Sep 29 2002 New Orleans Saints -9 @ Detroit Lions Lions 26-21 Lost
Sep 30 2002 Denver Broncos -9 @ Baltimore Ravens Ravens 34-23 Lost
Oct 27 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8 @ Carolina Panthers Buccaneers 12-9 Lost
Nov 24 2002 Oakland Raiders -9½ @ Arizona Cardinals Raiders 41-20 Won
Dec 15 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -9½ @ Detroit Lions Buccaneers 23-20 Lost
Dec 29 2002 Tennessee Titans -9½ @ Houston Texans Titans 13-3 Won
Sep 21 2003 Kansas City Chiefs -7½ @ Houston Texans Chiefs 42-14 Won
Sep 21 2003 Green Bay Packers -7½ @ Arizona Cardinals Cardinals 20-13 Lost
Nov 30 2003 Kansas City Chiefs -7½ @ San Diego Chargers Chiefs 28-24 Lost
Dec 27 2003 Philadelphia Eagles -9 @ Washington Redskins Eagles 31-7 Won
Dec 28 2003 St Louis Rams -12 @ Detroit Lions Lions 30-20 Lost
Dec 28 2003 Indianapolis Colts -9 @ Houston Texans Colts 20-17 Lost
Dec 28 2003 Minnesota Vikings -7½ @ Arizona Cardinals Cardinals 18-17 Lost
Sep 19 2004 New England Patriots -8 @ Arizona Cardinals Patriots 23-12 Won
Oct 3 2004 Philadelphia Eagles -8½ @ Chicago Bears Eagles 19-9 Won
Nov 21 2004 Indianapolis Colts -8 @ Chicago Bears Colts 41-10 Won
Nov 25 2004 Indianapolis Colts -8½ @ Detroit Lions Colts 41-9 Won
Dec 5 2004 New England Patriots -11 @ Cleveland Browns Patriots 42-15 Won
Dec 12 2004 Indianapolis Colts -10 @ Houston Texans Colts 23-14 Lost
Dec 12 2004 Philadelphia Eagles -8 @ Washington Redskins Eagles 17-14 Lost
Dec 18 2004 Pittsburgh Steelers -10 @ New York Giants Steelers 33-30 Lost
Dec 19 2004 San Diego Chargers -8 @ Cleveland Browns Chargers 21-0 Won
Dec 20 2004 New England Patriots -10 @ Miami Dolphins Dolphins 29-28 Lost
Dec 26 2004 Buffalo Bills -10 @ San Francisco 49ers Bills 41-7 Won
Oct 9 2005 Indianapolis Colts -14 @ San Francisco 49ers Colts 28-3 Won
Oct 23 2005 Indianapolis Colts -14½ @ Houston Texans Colts 38-20 Won
Oct 30 2005 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -11½ @ San Francisco 49ers 49ers 15-10 Lost
Nov 6 2005 New York Giants -9½ @ San Francisco 49ers Giants 24-6 Won
Nov 20 2005 Seattle Seahawks -12 @ San Francisco 49ers Seahawks 27-25 Lost
Dec 11 2005 Indianapolis Colts -7½ @ Jacksonville Jaguars Colts 26-18 Won
Dec 17 2005 Denver Broncos -8 @ Buffalo Bills Broncos 28-17 Won
Dec 18 2005 Seattle Seahawks -7½ @ Tennessee Titans Seahawks 28-24 Lost
Dec 18 2005 Cincinnati Bengals -7½ @ Detroit Lions Bengals 41-17 Won
Dec 31 2005 New York Giants -7½ @ Oakland Raiders Giants 30-21 Won
Oct 1 2006 Indianapolis Colts -8 @ New York Jets Colts 31-28 Lost
Oct 1 2006 Dallas Cowboys -9½ @ Tennessee Titans Cowboys 45-14 Won
Oct 15 2006 San Diego Chargers -10 @ San Francisco 49ers Chargers 48-19 Won
Oct 16 2006 Chicago Bears -13 @ Arizona Cardinals Bears 24-23 Lost
Oct 22 2006 Jacksonville Jaguars -8 @ Houston Texans Texans 27-7 Lost
Oct 29 2006 Pittsburgh Steelers -9 @ Oakland Raiders Raiders 20-13 Lost
Nov 12 2006 Baltimore Ravens -7½ @ Tennessee Titans Ravens 27-26 Lost
Nov 12 2006 Denver Broncos -8 @ Oakland Raiders Broncos 17-13 Lost
Dec 3 2006 Indianapolis Colts -7½ @ Tennessee Titans Titans 20-17 Lost
Dec 24 2006 Indianapolis Colts -9½ @ Houston Texans Texans 27-24 Lost