Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, October 25, 2026
4:05 PM ET, State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ
The Denver Broncos are 4.5-point favorites over the Arizona Cardinals, and the total is 43.5. My play is Broncos -4.5 (-107 at Caesars).
How much should one afternoon at SoFi Stadium be worth? This line opened Denver -7.5. Then Arizona kicked six field goals to stun the Rams as a big underdog, and the number fell three full points, right through the 7. That’s a lot of respect for a team that has lost both of its home games by 24 points.
I’m not saying the Cardinals’ win was a fluke. Jacoby Brissett played clean after an early interception, didn’t take a sack for the first time all year, and Chad Ryland drilled the winner from 43 as time expired. Coach Mike LaFleur deserves credit. But kicking six field goals tells you Arizona’s offense moved the ball and then stalled out over and over. The rest of the résumé is a 31-7 home loss to Seattle and a 45-21 home loss to Detroit. TeamRankings’ home rating has the Cardinals dead last in the league, and its predictive ratings put these teams about nine and a half points apart on a neutral field. The market is at 4.5.
Bo Nix needs a soft landing, and here it is
Let’s be clear about Denver’s offense. It’s been bad. In the 17-14 overtime win over Seattle, the Broncos gained 168 yards and had just two first downs after their two early touchdown drives. Bo Nix threw for 107 yards, and Ryan Fitzpatrick called it “garbage” on the postgame show. Nix didn’t sugarcoat it either: “I just think we’re really, for some reason, struggling to find those explosive plays.” Denver’s 5.6 yards per pass attempt is the worst in the league.
Now look at who’s next. Arizona allows 8.6 yards per pass attempt, also dead last, and gives up more points per play than anyone. Grade every dropback by how much it boosts the offense’s scoring odds, the idea behind EPA, and Arizona’s pass defense ranks 30th. If there’s a week for Sean Payton, who took over the play-calling, to finally hit some shots downfield, it’s this one. And he’s had 10 days to plan it, because Denver played last Thursday. Arizona is coming off a draining road upset on a normal week of rest.
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The other half of the matchup is the reason Denver is 4-2 in the first place. The Broncos’ defense hit Sam Darnold 17 times and sacked him five times last week. Season-long, opponents complete only 56.5% of their passes against Denver, second-best in the league, and the Broncos rank fifth in pass defense by EPA. Brissett has thrown six interceptions. Arizona’s running game won’t scare anyone either. It averages 3.7 yards a carry, James Conner is on IR, and Jeremiyah Love (ankle) is questionable.
Nix’s slump doesn’t disappear just because I need it to
Plenty, honestly. Denver’s offense might not be fixable in one week, and laying points with a team that just gained 168 yards takes some nerve. The Broncos have been outscored on the season, and Payton said it himself: “I’m a little bit of a realist to know that 4-2 could easily be 2-4.” The defense is also missing two of its best defensive backs. Pat Surtain II and Talanoa Hufanga (both ankle) are listed as doubtful, and that opens the door for Trey McBride over the middle. Denver’s run defense ranks near the bottom by EPA, and the Broncos haven’t covered much on the road. If Brissett stays clean again, this could be a one-score game into the fourth quarter.
Still, I’ll take the better team, the better rest and the better defense at a number that’s three points cheaper than the opener. Broncos 24, Cardinals 16. I’d lay it up to -5.5, -6 is a lean, and at -6.5 or higher I’m sitting it out. If you’d rather shave the half-point, BetMGM has -4 at -112.
The Pick: Broncos -4.5 (-107 at Caesars)
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