RBD takes the Rams -3 at Las Vegas, fading a Raiders team that beat up on bottom-feeders early and has since lost three straight.
Los Angeles Rams at Las Vegas Raiders
NFL Prediction
Friday morning I saw an article entitled,
“Too Many Coaches Are Clueless About Clock Management”
It was behind a paywall so I didn’t read it, but I didn’t have to. I know what it says.
I’ve been saying it for years – How is it that the basic knucklehead fan/bettor knows more about clock management and using timeouts than the head coach on the field who’s being paid millions of dollars?
Two weeks ago App State had an 11-point lead with about 7 minutes left in the 4th quarter and they we’re snapping the ball with 28 seconds left on the play clock.
WTF??!!
Last Saturday, just over a minute left in the first half, the Wyoming defense gets a sack on 3rd down and wastes 9 seconds before someone says, “Hey, we have three timeouts. Let’s use one, we’re getting the ball back!”
Thursday night, James Madison entered their game against App State undefeated at 7-0.
After the game, they were 7-1.
I was glad to see them lose.
Did I have money on the Mountaineers?
No.
I just don’t like coaches who mismanage games.
App State scored a touchdown near the end of the first half, cutting into James Madison’s lead. The Dukes were now only up by four points. They get the ball back on their own 25-yard line with just over a minute left in the half and TWO timeouts.
Head coach Billy Napier calls for a run on first down and then has his team use up the entire play clock before running his last play of the half and taking it into the locker room.
He didn’t even try to score.
I’m watching on TV and thinking, “THAT decision is going to come back and bite you on the ass.”
The Dukes lost by a FG in OT.
How much sleep do you think Napier lost that night, reliving that wasted opportunity at the end of the first half?
How valuable were those two timeouts when he carried into the locker room at halftime?
And don’t even get me started on Washington’s Dan Quinn and his use of timeouts in the Hekawi’s last two losses.
Handicapping is like chess, you have to look at the board from every angle. You have to consider stats, location, situation, injuries, weather, etc. There are enough facets to factor into your decision without having to consider “Is my coach a knucklehead or not?”
So what do I have for a coach in my play this week – a Genius or a card carrying member of Bob Dobb’s Church of the Subgenius?
I’m on the Rams and Sean McVeigh, who’s a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde. One game he looks like a genius and the next game he looks like an idiot.
Last week first Arizona the Rams held the Cardinals to zero touchdowns – and STILL managed to lose the game.
In fact, they’ve managed to lose four of their six games so far this season.
But they weren’t beaten as much as they’ve beaten themselves with stupid mistakes and blown leads.
All of this makes for an angry fan base so I think it’s good for the Rams that they’re on the Rd in Vegas this week.
Without digging into stats for either team, a quick glance at this matchup shows an underperforming LA team facing an overachieving LV team, in my opinion.
The Raiders are now 3-3 after starting the season 3-0. All three wins came against the bottom feeders of the league, Miami (0-5), LAC (0-6) and NO (2-4). Record-wise, LAR (2-4) could be lumped in with that same group of losers, but talent-wise they’re world’s above them.
Last season the Rams were 2-0 SU after a loss.
They were 1-0 after two losses in a row.
The year before that they were 3-0 after a loss and 2-0 after losing two straight.
I like that the Raiders have lost three in a row. It gives me faith in the natural order of things.
And based on the numbers I just listed above I like that the Rams have lost two in a row.
I also like that money has come in on LV, taking the hook off the game. The line opened at LA -3′ but most houses have dropped the hook and added a price to the Rams -3.
It seems Joe Public loves the Raiders in this spot and it’s always good to go against Joe Public.
The Raiders are ranked near the bottom of the league against the pass, giving up 230 yards per game.
Even with Devonte Adams out, Stafford and his offense should be able to exploit LV’s defense and get back in the W column, as long as they remember there are other receivers on the team. Nacua is obviously an outstanding receiver but at times the Rams become one-dimensional, leaning on him too much, making the defense’s task easier.
It also doesn’t hurt that the Raiders are ranked near the bottom of the league, 30th out of 32 teams, rushing for just 79 yards per game.
They’re also ranked near the bottom for rushing defense, giving up 134 yards per game.
McVeigh, knucklehead that he is, had RB Kyren Williams run the ball only 10 times last week against Arizona. Let’s hope he learns from his mistake and puts in a game plan that makes better use of his star RB this week.
My play:
LAR -3 (I’m waiting to buy it. It’s easily available at -115, but I doubt the hook will come back on so it can hurt to wait and see if the money keeps dropping.)
