Browns vs. Broncos Prediction ATS 11/3/19

by | Oct 31, 2019 | nfl

Cleveland Browns (2-5 SU, 2-5 ATS) vs. Denver Broncos (2-6 SU, 4-4 ATS)
When: Sunday, November 3rd, 2019 – 4:25 PM ET
Where: Empower Field at Mile High Stadium – Denver, CO

Point Spread: CLE -2.5 / DEN +2.5 (Bet365)
Total: 40.5

Power Ratings: Denver -4

Takeaways From Week Eight

The Browns step into this match-up on a three-game losing streak capped off most recently with a 27-13 loss on the road in Foxboro against the defending champion New England Patriots. The Brownies closed as a 9.5-point underdog and thus failed to produce a cover in their third straight fixture.

The Broncos expanded their losing streak to two games after falling to Indianapolis in a nail-biting loss last Sunday. Closing as a six-point road underdog, Denver was successful in coming in under the number losing by a narrow score of 15-13 to the Colts.

How the Public is Betting the Cleveland- Denver Game

54% of the consensus like the Browns in this market. Initially, the Broncos opened as a 1.5-point favorite, but heavy steam has not moved Denver into a position where it is taking back 2.5 points as a home underdog.

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The Historicals

The last collision between Cleveland and Denver occurred in December of 2018 when the Broncos hosted the Brownies. Closing as a one-point favorite, Denver would fall to Cleveland by a mere point in what was a 17-16 thriller.

Betting Trends

In this series as a whole, Denver has had held the upper-hand. Last year’s Cleveland gave the Browns its only win against the Broncos in the previous meetings between both sides. However, the Browns have covered over the last two matches between both teams. For Totals players, the Under is 10-1 ATS in Denver’s last 11 home games.

Injury Concerns

The Denver quarterbacking corps has been riddled with injuries. Starter Joe Flacco is expected to be unavailable due to a herniated disk in his neck. Rookie signal-caller Drew Lock is out as well as he has been placed on the IR with a thumb injury. Lock emerged as a viable second option on the depth chart, which now leaves the Denver cupboard bear.

Why We Like The Browns To Cover

Once upon a time, the Cleveland Browns were the most talked-about team heading in the AFC North heading into the 2019-2020 season. Many expected this franchise to compete for a division title, let alone a playoff berth. However, Cleveland by no stretch has lived up to the hype, and some rather surly remarks have been made about the Browns camp. A win here on the road will be essential for morale and momentum and can undoubtedly get Cleveland headed in the right direction. Moreover, a win against the Broncos in Denver is a resume builder for this football team and a primer that will help it maximize winning in hostile environments. This is an excellent opportunity for the Browns to shut up the critics and do so against a team that cannot offer much resistance given the injury bug that has plagued their locker room. The stock is low on this Cleveland team because every time it has had a chance to make a statement, it has failed miserably with the exception of their upset of Baltimore, where they hung 40 points on the Ravens in their own stead. With all this considered, the Browns have moved to a favorite for a reason. They are not only in a position to win here but to do so decisively and in doing so, make a statement.

Keith’s Pick to Cover the Spread: Cleveland -2.5

I am not typically one for playing a team at a bad number, but in this case, there is ample reason as to why the Broncos are the dog in this contest. Some other betting sites may argue that Denver is, in fact, undervalued here, but I will have to respectfully disagree. The quarterback situation in Denver is quite hazy, and that can be a disruptive force to establishing any form of continuity offensively. Given the fact that Denver’s defense will likely have a higher pitch count, as a result, this makes the Broncos a dangerous prospect given Cleveland has the offensive firepower to explode even if they have been lackluster at times this season. The Brownies will get back on track here with a win and cover, taking advantage of a banged-up Denver team.

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