Buccaneers vs. Falcons Pick

by | Nov 19, 2019 | nfl

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-7 SU, 2-8 ATS) vs. Atlanta Falcons (3-7 SU, 4-6 ATS)

NFL Week 12

Date/Time: Sunday November 24th, 2019. 1:00PM (EST)

Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium Atlanta, G.A.


Point Spread: TB +4/ATL -4 (SportsBetting.ag - 50% Sign-up Bonus!)

Over/Under Total: 52

After starting the season 1-7 SU, the Atlanta Falcons have started to turn things around, especially on the defensive side of the football following back to back wins over New Orleans and Carolina. Two weeks ago, the Falcons scored one of the biggest upset wins in the NFL by blasting the Saints 26-9 despite entering the game as nearly a two-touchdown underdog. The Falcons defense stood tall against one of the most potent offenses in the NFL and kept the Saints out of the endzone. Last week the Falcons defense provided another spectacular performance forcing four turnovers in a 29-3 route over the Panthers. Now the Falcons look to knock off another division opponent when they return home to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium in what could be another opportunistic match-up for the Atlanta defense.

Jameis Winston’s turnovers continue to be his downfall

The debate of whether Jameis Winston can be labeled a “franchise quarterback” continues to be a hot topic and has surrounded the Buccaneers organization for the last two years. Winston’s contract is set to expire at the end of the year, which means Tampa Bay will have to make a decision on the future of their troubled quarterback. At times, Winston has been brilliant. That was on display in week 9 when he led the Buccaneers down the field on the final drive for a touchdown to force overtime and again in week 10 when he led the offense down the field in the waning moments for a game-winning touchdown over the Cardinals. In the last five games, Winston has thrown for at least 300 yards in each contest and has racked up eight touchdown passes.

Despite showing production at the position, Winston continues to be plagued by bad decisions and turnovers that ultimately seem to be more costly than the touchdowns that he is producing. Winston leads the NFL in interceptions (18) by an extensive margin, with 13 of those interceptions coming over the last five games. In last week’s loss to the Saints, Winston’s production numbers were overshadowed by four interceptions that included a pick-six that ultimately ended the Buccaneers’ chances for a victory. It has become an all too familiar scene each week for the Buccaneers quarterback, and now he faces another pressuring defense that is playing much better than paper statistics may suggest.

Falcons offense improving and healing

In the last several weeks, the Falcons have had some of their biggest playmakers on the sidelines, which is never a good thing, especially for a team that started the year winning just once in the first eight games. Quarterback Matt Ryan missed time before returning for the victory over the Saints. In last week’s win over Carolina, the Falcons were without star TE Austin Hooper and star RB Devonta Freeman. These injuries are in additional to WR Mohamed Sanu’s recent trade to the Patriots, which should have severely handicapped the offense. Instead, Ryan was able to carve up the Panthers defense for 311 yards with a touchdown and the Falcons defense feasted off multiple turnovers to put together another impressive victory.

It has been a complete effort for the Falcons in recent weeks. On offense, Ryan and WR Julio Jones have led the show. However, Hooper and Freeman could both return in week 11 against the Buccaneers to provide an uptick to the offense. Perhaps more importantly, the match-up bodes well for the Falcons. Tampa Bay ranks as one of the worst pass-rush units in the NFL and plays pass funnel defense that has yielded a league-worst 300 yards per game. This is a perfect match-up for the Falcons pass-heavy offense that thrives when Ryan is protected. If they can get some help from Winston’s turnover woes, this could be another blowout spot for a surging Falcons team.

Tampa Bay vs. Atlanta Betting Trends

The Buccaneers remain one of the worst teams in the NFL for bettors with a 2-8 mark ATS on the season. After starting the year 2-2 ATS, the Buccaneers have now dropped six straight games against the spread and are 0-5 ATS in their last five games against NFC opponents. The Falcons began the year poorly going 1-6 ATS in the first seven games but have since scored three straight wins ATS. The Falcons are also 4-2 ATS in their last six games against NFC opponents. In terms of trends around the total, the Falcons have hit the “under” in seven of their previous eight games at home. However in prior meetings between the Buccaneers and Falcons, the “over” has cashed in 5 of the last six games.

Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Falcons -4. “Hot” is the most important stat in your betting aresenal and the Falcons are just that. TB has one of the crappiest secondaries in football. How are they going to stop Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley? They can’t! Bet this game and all your sports bets at discounted odds at BetAnySports. For football sides and totals you only lay -105 instead of the standard -110 that your book is socking you. Making the switch is a no-brainer!