Bucs vs. Broncos Against the Spread Pick

by | Sep 24, 2020 | nfl

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) vs. Denver Broncos (0-2, 2-0), 9/27/20

Time: 4:25 pm ET Sunday, Sept. 27

Where: Mile High Stadium

TV: Fox

Point spread: Buccaneers -6 (BetNow - Deposit $100 to $500 and get the same FREE!)

Moneyline: Buccaneers -255/Broncos +210

Over/Under: 43

Tom Brady picked up his first victory with his new team last week and looks for No. 2 when his Buccaneers visit Denver to battle the Broncos Sunday afternoon at Mile High. Brady will be making his 286th career start Sunday, while Denver’s back-up quarterback, Jeff Driskel, will be making his ninth. Can the Bucs cover a touchdown? Can the Broncos pull an upset? And how are we playing this game with our free NFL pick?

NFL Betting Odds

Week 3’s NFL betting odds opened Tampa Bay as a 3.5-point road favorite over Denver, with an over/under of right around 44. Early betting action then goosed the Bucs to -6 and dipped that total to 43.

Buccaneers vs. Broncos Set-Up

Tampa is 1-1 on the season after beating Carolina last week 31-17. The Buccaneers turned two early takeaways into touchdowns, led 21-0 at the half, let the Panthers get within seven points twice in the second half but sealed the victory on Leonard Fournette’s breakaway touchdown with just under two minutes left.

That late score also allowed the Bucs to cover the spread as favorites of 7.5 points.

That game also played over its total of 47 on Fournette’s late TD jaunt.

On the day, Tampa got out-gained by the Panthers 427-339 and lost time of possession by a 35:25 split. But the Buccaneers out-rushed Carolina 122-87 and won the turnover battle 4-2, producing a +13 points differential.

New Bucs QB Tom Brady only threw the ball for 217 yards last week but got help in the form of 103 yards on the ground from new teammate Fournette.

Tamp Bay opened this season with that 34-23 loss at New Orleans. The Buccaneers only produced 310 yards of total offense that day but only allowed 271 yards to what’s supposed to be a potent Saints offense. Unfortunately, two Brady interceptions proved very costly.

Denver is off to an 0-2 start after taking a tough 26-21 loss at Pittsburgh last week. The Broncos lost starting quarterback Drew Lock to a shoulder injury on their second possession of the game, trailed 17-3 at the half, then rallied behind back-up QB Jeff Driskel to pull within 17-14 in the third quarter. Near the end, down 26-21, Denver drove to the Steelers’ 15-yard line but took a sack on a fourth down and couldn’t get the ball back.

However, the Broncos’ comeback gave them the cover as six-point dogs.

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Also, that game played over a total of 41, as the teams combined for 24 points over the last 16 minutes.

On the day Denver got out-gained by Pittsburgh 410-319, although 84 of the yards the Broncos defense gave up came on one play. And offensively, the Broncos took seven sacks, which cost them 61 yards. Also, while both teams committed two turnovers, the net result was -3 points for the Broncos. Finally, Denver took a safety on a botched punt in the fourth quarter.

A couple of plays here and there and the Broncos might have won that game.

Denver opened its season with a 16-14 loss to Tennessee on a field goal with 17 seconds left. But the Broncos covered that game as home dogs of 3.5 points.

These two teams last met back in 2016, a 27-7 Denver win in Nashville. Paxton Lynch and Trevor Siemian quarterbacked the Broncos that day against Jameis Winston for Tampa Bay.

NFL Betting Trends

  • Tampa Bay actually played 5-3 both SU and ATS on the road last season.
  • Tampa Bay played 2-0 both SU and ATS as a road favorite last season.
  • Denver played 5-3 both SU and ATS at home last season.
  • Denver played 3-1 ATS as a home dog last season.
  • Favorites are 23-9 SU but only 14-17-1 ATS in the NFL this season.
  • Home teams are 19-13 SU, 17-14-1 ATS in the NFL this season.
  • Home dogs are 4-8 SU, 7-4-1 ATS in the NFL this season.

Totals Report

  • Overs are 14-4 over Tampa’s last 18 games, which have averaged a very healthy 56 total points.
  • Unders are 10-8 over Denver’s last 18 games, which have averaged just 38 points.
  • Overs are 20-12 in the NFL this season.

Free NFL Pick

We’ll go there; we’re dubious about whether Brady can elevate this Tampa team to Super Bowl contender status. He didn’t look good in Week 1, and he didn’t really do a lot in Week 2. The Bucs might be wise to feed Fournette. Meanwhile, Denver is now without its starting QB, but Driskel didn’t look too bad last week. He’s just gotta get rid of the ball a little quicker. The Broncos kept their first two games close, and we expect them to keep this one close, too. We’ll take Denver and the points.

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