Bucs vs. Saints Betting Pick: NFL Week 4 Analysis

by | Last updated Sep 27, 2023 | nfl

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) vs. New Orleans Saints (2-1 SU, 0-2-1 ATS)

NFL Football Week 4

Date/Time: Sunday, October 1st, 2023. 1:00PM (EST)

Where: Caesars Superdome New Orleans, LA


Betting Odds:

Point Spread: TB +3/NO -3 (Score a FAT 100% bonus with a sportsbook promo code!)

Moneyline: Bucs +150/Who Dat -170

Total: 40.5

Last week, the New Orleans Saints suffered their first loss of the season in a nail-biting 18-17 defeat to the Green Bay Packers. While nobody expected the Saints to go undefeated this season, last week’s loss stung for a multitude of reasons. The Saints built an early 17-0 lead in the first half, forced multiple turnovers on the defensive side of the football, scored on special teams, and despite a rally from the Packers in the 2nd half; the Saints still had the chance to win in the final seconds but kicker Blake Grupe missed a game-winning field goal with less than 90 seconds to go. As a result, the Saints will look to shake off the tough loss and rebound when they return home to host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Caesars Superdome this Sunday in an important week 4 match-up.

I’m not really sure if anyone expected the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be as competitive as they have shown this season. The transition from Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield was enough in itself to cause major concerns. Not to mention, the Buccaneers entered the season with several question marks in key areas. Despite those concerns, the Buccaneers are 2-1 SU on the season albeit on the heels of a somewhat expected 25-11 loss to the reigning NFC Champions in Philadelphia last week. Despite the first loss of the season, the Buccaneers are legitimately one of the best teams in the subpar NFC South Division and could take a grip of the top spot with a win over the Saints in what promises to be an important early divisional match-up.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints Betting Analysis

Despite my lack of faith in QB Baker Mayfield, the Buccaneers have played well on both sides of the ball. Without any type of success on the ground, Mayfield has been able to get the ball into the hands of star receivers Chris Godwin and Mike Evans with consistency. Evans has already brought in 17 catches for 297 yards with 3 touchdowns through the opening 3 games of the season, and the Buccaneers have continued to make him the centerpiece of the offense. Personally, I have been more impressed with the Tampa Bay defense rather than the offense. The Bucs defense held Minnesota’s dynamic offense to 17 points and made things very difficult for Philadelphia, forcing multiple turnovers in the 25-11 loss last week despite being completely shut down on the offensive side of the football.

If Mayfield and the offense can avoid these total letdown games like the Bucs experienced last week where they managed to produce just 174 yards of total offense, the Bucs defense can contend with nearly any team in the league. The problem is that is a big “if” statement because Mayfield’s entire career has been marred by inconsistency. For this week’s match-up against the Saints, Mayfield will have another tough challenge against a New Orleans pass defense that has allowed just 188 yards per game through the air despite facing two of the better passing attacks in the NFL. CB Marshon Lattimore and this Saints secondary have held opposing Bucs receiving to less than 80 yards in 6 of the last 7 meetings between the two division rivals and I think this is another match-up where they should defend well. If you consider the Bucs inept run-game, I really like the Saints to stand strong on the defensive side of the football in this match-up.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints Betting Trends

  • The Bucs are 4-14-1 ATS in the last 19 games.
  • The Bucs have hit the “under” in 13 of the last 20 games.
  • The Bucs are 2-8 ATS in the last 10 games against New Orleans.
  • The Bucs are 1-6 ATS in the last 7 games
  • The Saints have hit the “under” in each of the last 9 games.
  • The Saints are 5-2 SU in the last 7 games.
  • The Saints have hit the “under” in 5 of the last 6 games at home.
  • The Saints have hit the “under” in 5 of the last 6 games against Tampa Bay.
  • The Saints are 1-5-1 ATS in the last 7 games against NFC South opponents.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints Betting Prediction

The Saints will get one of their primary weapons back this week in RB Alvin Kamara who has now served his 4-game suspension. While my expectations may be modest for Kamara in his first game back, defenses must respect a better threat out of the backfield. With that being said, I still believe QB Derek Carr and this Saints passing attack led by WR Chris Olave are really underrated. I like the Saints to win the match-ups on both sides of the ball and clearly establish themselves as favorites in the NFC South.

Jay’s Pick: Take the Saints -3

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