Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins Pick – Best Bet for Week 18

Buffalo Bills (10-6 SU, 6-10 ATS) vs. Miami Dolphins (11-5 SU, 10-6 ATS)
Date/Time: Sunday, January 7, 8:20 PM EST
Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fl
TV: NBC

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Buf -3 /Mia +3
Moneyline: Buf -170 /Mia +145
Over/Under Total: 50

The NFL 2023 Season comes to a close on Sunday Night in South Florida with the Buffalo Bills taking on the Miami Dolphins. This game will decide the AFC East Champion, and if both Pittsburgh and Jacksonville win their week 18 games, Buffalo will be watching the playoffs if they fall to the Dolphins. BOVADA.LV is making the Bills 3-point road favorites and setting the game total at 50. The Bills are 1 of the hottest NFL teams while the Dolphins are reeling from injuries, so the play is to lay the field goal and play the Bills. Here is the handicap.

Josh Allen Will Show Up

Allen has led the Bills to 4 straight wins since their week 13 bye – including the ugly game last week against the Pats, to put them in position to win their division and the #2 seed in the AFC. The Bills rank #6 in points scored and #5 in yards per play, with James Cook coming on recently to give Buffalo a solid runner to complement the passing game. Allen lit up the Dolphins in Week 4 to the tune of 320 passing yards, four touchdowns, no interceptions, and a rushing touchdown to top it all off. The Bills will employ a similar approach this week, probably with a little more Cook on the ground. He only carried the ball 12 times in that game, but he will have a bigger role in Miami. Buffalo put up 31 first-half points in Week 4, and I think they will start strong again this week. Allen was only sacked twice in that game, so he will have time to throw, and with Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, and his tight ends and Cook, it will be too much for the Dolphins to cover. They may not get into the 30s in the first half, but I think they make multiple first-half trips into the endzone against a squad decimated by injuries.

The Dolphins’ defense has continuously improved all season as DC Vic Fangio has molded the unit, along with the return to health of Jalen Ramsey. But last week, the Ravens took the unit to the woodshed, and in the process, their most valuable player – Bradley Chubb – was lost for the season with a torn ACL. Chubb had 11 sacks and joined fellow pass-rusher Jaelan Phillips, who had 6.5 sacks through 8 weeks on IR. Miami is 3rd in the league in sacks, but now 30% of their sacks are not on the field, and there is no help on the way. Baltimore put up 56 points and 491 total yards last week against the Fins, so the Bills have the blueprint to take advantage of this defense.

Miami’s Offense Is Also Hobbled

The Dolphins have been the NFL’s most explosive and entertaining offense in the 2023 campaign. But as the season winds down, Tua Tagovailoa has a sore shoulder, Jaylen Waddle has a high-ankle sprain, Raheem Mostert has a basket of aches and pains, and four offensive linemen were on the injury report last week. Mostert can be replaced by Miami’s other backs, but Waddle is a huge loss, and the O-line isn’t great to start with, so any starter missing or less than 100% is a big deal. Word on Tua’s shoulder issue is that he will play through it, but I worry that he will favor the shoulder or that the game plan will be ultra-conservative to protect him. Tyreek Hill also has an ankle injury and has missed plays in each of the last two games to get treatment. Miami looked bad in Baltimore last week, with Tagovailoa completing only 22 of 38 passes along with two interceptions. This offense thrives on making explosive plays, but their longest pass play was only 25 yards. The Bills will certainly try to copy that this week.

Buffalo’s defense is not near as good as the Ravens, but they will cause problems for Miami. Baltimore limited the Dolphins to 20 points and 282 total yards in week 4, and other than a 55-yard De’Von Achane run, the longest play from scrimmage for the Fins was a 20-yard pass. The Bills have their own injury issues on defense but have recovered from the loss of Matt Milano and Tre’Davious White. They have faced two easy opponents in the Chargers and Patriots the last two weeks, but in Week 15, they shut down the Cowboys attack – allowing only 10 points and 195 total yards. I think Buffalo’s defense with their battle with the Dolphins offense just as they did earlier this year.

The Spot Favors Buffalo

It is a fallacy that it is smart to bet NFL teams that have to win to get in the playoffs in week 18. I think this is an exception. Buffalo has been on a mission since they lost the conference championship in KC last year, and though they stubbed their toe in the middle part of the season, they have put that behind them and are now marching to the playoffs. On the other hand, the Dolphins started on fire and have been limping in over the last ten weeks of the season. They have played five teams that are legitimate Super Bowl contenders and are 1-4 in those contests, losing the four by at least 7 points. If this game gets ugly early for the Dolphins, I could see them pulling their key players to start thinking about the playoffs. I don’t see a lot of fight out of Miami to keep the game close if they aren’t going to win.

Lay The Points With The Road Dogs

Let’s back Josh Allen and the visiting Bills to win and cover the number in Miami in the NFL’s final 2023 regular season game.

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