Buffalo Bills (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) vs. Carolina Panthers (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS)
NFL Week 2
Date/Time: Sunday, September 17th, 2017 1:00 PM ET
Where: Bank of America Stadium Charlotte, NC
by Keith, Expert Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: BUF +7.5/CAR -7.5
Over/Under Total: 41
In Week 2, the AFC East will meet the NFC South in a collision between the Buffalo Bills and the Carolina Panthers. The contest will take place at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina. The game will be aired on FOX for regional audiences. The two teams have not met since 2013 where the Bills emerged victorious at home against the Panthers whilst curating the hosting duties. Overall, Buffalo has won the last two against Carolina but be that these contests are on a four-year basis, there is much stock in these results given the dynamics of the league as a whole. Both teams enter off wins in their respective Week 1 openers. However, for both teams these results were manufactured against two of the weakest teams in the league. For the Bills, they came out on top in a 21-12 win over their downstate rivals the New York Jets. The Bills entered the game as an eight-point home choice against their AFC East foes. Nevertheless, Buffalo barely got out with a cover. For the Panthers, they took it to San Francisco on the road when they won by a score of 23-3. The Panther defense looked to be back in form against the maligned Gold Rush at Levi Stadium.
In the early going we have seen the line diminish by a point in some markets or remain idle. The biggest motif is the friendly price tag next to Carolina in some scenarios, as they are offered spotting the touchdown and change with above even odds. In other markets, a touchdown comes accompanied by a traditional vig. Overall, Buffalo getting a win and a hearty allotment of points seems like a savory play to the eyes of many punters. However, the Bills win against the Jets was no achievement to revel in or to boast about. Lets not forget the Jets were prognosticated by some to not even win one game this season. Some pundits have proclaimed that Gang Green will not even try to compete in 2017 but rather tank the season to set itself up for 2018 and thereafter.
The Panthers will likely enter this season with a chip on its shoulder. Their Week One win against the Niners would suggest that this is indeed the case. After making it all the way to the Super Bowl in 2015, the Panthers would follow up their efforts with a losing campaign in 2016. Carolina took a step backward due to many causes. The Panthers lost the services of Josh Morgan who was a pivotal component of their vaunted defense. In addition, the engine of the Panthers was rattled by injuries over the span of 2016. This of course is a reference to Cam Newton. However, Newton and company silenced any dissension in belief on Sunday. The Panthers have illustrated now that they are ready for a comeback season and certainly eyeing the prospects of returning to the post-season in 2017. The Bills are set-up to be another peg for them to knock down.
As we have highlighted in our analysis of Cleveland and Baltimore, laying points has many disadvantages. However, the number offered here is a favorite-friendly number. We diverged further into this in our breakdown of the Cleveland/Baltimore contest but nevertheless the offering is identical to the figure presented in the Cleveland-Baltimore market. Very quickly, the 7.5-spot is a price to encourage action on the underdog as a touchdown plus conversion will generate for a cover for any Buffalo taker. But enough about the rudiments, the fact remains that Buffalo successfully covered in Week One and they are still priced here regardless of the fact. This shows a huge lack of faith in Buffalo by the market analysis. We are of a similar stance here, be that Buffalo won against the Jets by virtue of New York mistakes more than by their own proficiencies. The step up in quality of competition is something Buffalo is simply not prepared to take. The Panthers will make an example out of the Bills before their home crowd to signal their return to relevance in 2017. This one may get really ugly if Cam gets going early.
KEITHs Pick to Cover the Point Spread: CAROLINA -7.5
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