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NFL Pick: Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets

by | Nov 8, 2018 | nfl

Buffalo Bills (2-7 SU, 3-6 ATS) vs. New York Jets (3-6 SU, 3-6 ATS)
When: November 11, 2018, 1:00 PM EST
Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
TV: CBS
BY: Rick Wise
Point Spread: BUF +7.5/NYJ -7.5
Over/Under: 36.5

Takeaways From Week 9

The Bills lost their fourth straight after a 41-9 shellacking against the Bears Sunday in a game that was over by the midway point, despite outgaining Chicago offensively on the stat sheet.

Buffalo lost the turnover battle in a big way. Nathan Peterman got the start and threw three interceptions that his butter-fingered receivers were largely responsible for. One went off the hands of Terrelle Pryor, who was making his debut, another went right thru Jason Croom’s fingers and there was a third late in the game that Peterman was mostly to blame for. Throw in Croom’s second quarter fumble that the Bears returned for a touchdown and it was a comedy of errors for the Bills in trying to hang onto the ball.

Packers vs Dolphins Pick

The struggles at wide receiver were glaring against the Bears. Nobody in this unit can seem to get open. Peterman, who’s known as a pocket passer and definitely not a scrambler, carried the ball 8 times but only because he had no one to throw to and fled the pocket in fear of his life. Kelvin Benjamin led all receivers with 4 catches for 40 yards but he was targeted 9 times.

Meanwhile, the Jets dropped their third consecutive game after a 13-6 loss to the Miami Dolphins in which Sam Darnold threw four interceptions and had one of his worst showings as a pro.

The Jets’ offense was a mess and Jeremy Bates’ predictable playcalling certainly didn’t help. By all appearances, Bates is running a slight variation of the same five plays for an entire game and on Sunday that turned into a recipe for disaster for Darnold. Defenses are catching on and if he doesn’t begin changing things up, the rookie QB might just fall off a cliff by season’s end.

The Jets defense provided the lone bright spot, holding Miami to 168 total yards, 104 passing and 64 rushing, and keeping them out of the end zone. Credit Jamal Adams and Jordan Jenkins for turning things around after the unit gave up up 395 total yards to the Chicago bears the week before. Now if they could only get an assist from the offense.

The Historicals

These two teams have a long history. Their first meeting came in 1960 when the New York Jets were the New York Titans and the Bills lead the series 61-54-0 and they’ve also had the upper hand as of late, winning 6 of the last 10 matchups dating back to 2013.

Injury Concerns

For Buffalo, listed as questionable for Sunday’s game are QB Derek Anderson (concussion), RB Chris Ivory (shoulder), TE Charles Clay (hamstring), DE Trent Murphy (knee), LB Tremaine Edmunds, QB Josh Allen (concussion).

For New York, listed as questionable for Sunday are CB Trumaine Johnson (quad), LB Kevin Pierre-Louis (foot), C Spender Long (finger), TE Neal Sterling (concussion).

When the Bills Have the Ball

Whether it’s Peterman, Derek Anderson or Josh Allen under center Sunday, the Bills have proven this season that they’re going to live or die by throwing the football. They’re putting the ball up at a 57.75% clip and running it the other 42.25 percent. And with a disgruntled LeSean McCoy (who by the way carried 10 times for 10 yards against the Bears) leading the backfield against a pretty solid Jets run defense, those percentages are unlikely to change this week.

When the Jets Have the Ball

New York is a little less willing to throw everything behind Sam Darnold, which is a good thing because it means they have something of a running game. They rank 16th in the NFL in rushing offense and Isaiah Crowell has been a solid option this season, leading the way on the ground with 533 yards and 5 touchdowns. It might be wise for Jeremy Bates to lean on the run a little bit more against the Bills after Sunday’s four interception debacle.

 

Betting Trends

  • Buffalo is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
  • Buffalo is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Buffalo’s last 7 games
  • Buffalo is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Buffalo’s last 7 games on the road
  • Buffalo is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing NY Jets
  • Buffalo is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing NY Jets
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo’s last 7 games when playing NY Jets
  • Buffalo is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
  • Buffalo is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Buffalo’s last 8 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
  • NY Jets is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
  • NY Jets is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets’s last 6 games
  • NY Jets is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games at home
  • The total has gone OVER in 7 of NY Jets’s last 9 games at home
  • NY Jets is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Buffalo
  • NY Jets is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Buffalo
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Jets’s last 7 games when playing Buffalo
  • NY Jets is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Buffalo
  • NY Jets is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Buffalo
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of NY Jets’s last 8 games when playing at home against Buffalo
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Weather Report

Temperatures of 44 degrees are expected for this one under partly cloudy skies with 41 percent humidity and 9 mph winds from the west.

Rick Wise’s NFL Pick: Buffalo +7.5

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