Buffalo Bills (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS) vs. New York Jets (1-6 SU, 1-5-1 ATS)
NFL Week 8
Date and Time: Sunday, October 26, 2014 at 1:00PM EST
Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
TV: CBS
by Scott, NFL Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: BUF +3/NYJ -3
Over/Under Total: 41
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On Sunday in an AFC East battle, the Buffalo Bills come into East Rutherford to take on the New York Jets. The Bills have somewhat quietly gotten out to a 4-3 record, as they look to take a 5-3 record into their bye-week. The Jets, meanwhile, are sitting at 1-6 on the heels of 6 straight losses. They look to get well here against a hurting Bills team and with the added firepower of Percy Harvin, who the Jets acquired last week in a trade.
The Bills started with two wins, had two losses, and have alternated wins and losses in their last three games. On Sunday, they scored a narrow 17-16 home win against Minnesota. But it came at a steep price that sheds doubt on the Bills as they move forward. They lost both CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson and that means that not only have they lost their top two backs, but theyve lost much of their offensive identity.
The gutsy Kyle Orton has shown himself to be capable under center for the Bills, as he engineered the winning drive on Sunday. Since coming in to spell struggling youngster EJ Manuel, the NFL journeyman has shown a flair for a dramatic and has this offense moving pretty well. Sammy Watkins, the exciting rookie, is starting to put forth the type of performances that got him drafted so highly. Scott Chandler is a dependable tight end, Robert Woods is a nice second-option at receiver, and Chris Hogan has been making his presence felt. But make no mistake, losing Spiller and Jackson puts this offense into the iffy category.
The Jets continue to put forth high efforts, despite what is beginning to look like a hopeless situation. Losing six straight games, especially when theyre a team that entered the season with some degree of hope, is a major letdown. But they played Denver pretty tough and were right in that game, going down for the tying TD before a pick-six made the score look more out-of-hand than it really was. And in their last game, a Thursday night affair in Foxborough, the Jets lost narrowly, 27-25, when a blocked field goal as time ran out gave the win to the Pats.
There is a certain type of facial expression you will see on coaches as they sense that they have reached the end of the line. Its an expression that is hard to describe, but its a combination of resignation, frustration, embarrassment, and hopelessness. Rex Ryan has been seen on the Jets sidelines with that countenance in recent weeks, as surely even he can see the writing on the wall. But that doesnt mean this team has given up.
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The Jets efforts in the past few weeks would likely have been enough to upend a visiting Bills team on Sunday. Its just that you cant count on anything with this Jets squad. Not with an erratic Geno Smith at quarterback, a running game that doesnt always fire, and a secondary that has shown a proclivity to give up the big play.
The Jets offense and return game now at least has some interesting possibilities with the addition of Percy Harvin. Watching the Jets this season, it was hard to not notice a lack of big-play ability, something that they now have with Harvin joining the fold. Well see how quickly and effectively they can work him into the plan, but there should be ample opportunities for Harvin to make his presence known. The Jets should make good use of him and see to it that he gets enough touches to make a difference.
The Bills and Jets have some things in common from a surface viewpoint, especially on defense. Both defenses are stout against the run, with middling pass-defenses. And both offenses struggle at times for long stretches in the game. Both offenses need the ground game to be productive for things to fall into place. With Spiller and Jackson out, the question is how will the Buffalo offense adjust and are they equipped to change their M.O. in mid-flight?
Over the past few weeks, weve started to see a Jets team getting their act together. The defense is keeping them in games, while Smith is showing flashes of competence. The run-game is averaging 4.7 yards per game team-wide. And theyre due for some big plays on special teams, something Harvin could help bring about.
By hanging in there against the Broncos and then coming back on a short week to give the Pats all they could handle, the Jets were actually pretty competitive against the best of the conference. They didnt get the desired bottom-line results, but if anything, they seem due for a win. It wont be easy, as the Bills have shown a knack in winning these type of close games. But I look for the Jets to break their slump, have a good game, and notch the win and cover over a compromised Buffalo Bills team.
Scott’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Im betting on the New York Jets minus 3 points.
