Carolina Panthers vs. Green Bay Packers Pick ATS

by | Nov 9, 2019 | nfl

Carolina Panthers (5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS) vs. Green Bay Packers (7-2 SU, 6-3ATS)
NFL Week 10
Date and Time:Sunday, Novermber 10 at 4:25pm ET
Where:Lambeau Field

Point Spread:CAR +5/GB -5 (WagerWeb)
Over/Under Total:47

Things are really starting to take shape as we inch closer to the postseason but a couple of Week 9 losses by prominent teams have made things a bit tighter. Green Bay was one of those teams that were upset last week, but they still have a handle on the NFC North as they welcome the Carolina Panthers to Lambeau this week. The Panthers are one of the more remarkable stories of 2019 as they went 0-2 with Cam Newton to start but have won five of the last six without Cam to get within two games of the NFC South leading Saints. Carolina has two games against New Orleans coming up, so the Panthers do control their own destiny, and a W in Green Bay this week would be a massive boost to a team already riding high. These teams have faced each other just twice since the 2014 season with Carolina winning both, getting two ATS wins as well.

All-In on Allen

Carolina put Cam Newton (foot) on the season-ending IR this week so that it will be Kyle Allen at the helm from here on out. In six games, Allen has hit on 60% of his passes for 1,291 yards with nine touchdowns against four interceptions. His rating has been in the high eighties, but more importantly, he has done enough to go 5-1 over that stretch with Carolina averaging 28 points per game under Allen. Carolina enters the week 25th in passing, and the big pass play hasn’t been a feature, but Allen has been good underneath, and it has been enough to keep defenses from completely selling out to stop Christian McCaffery. Expect another solid effort from Allen as Green Bay is 21st against the pass and have been routinely burned by short-middle patterns and crossing routes. McCaffrey has played at an MVP-level and leads the NFL with 13 total touchdowns. He should be a big factor on Sunday as Green Bay is allowing nearly five yards per rush.

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Back to Full Strength

Simply put, Green Bay laid an egg in LA last week en route to a 26-11 loss to the Chargers. Rodgers was held to 161 yards passing even with Davante Adams back in action after missing four weeks with turf toe, and there wasn’t much in the plus column for the defense, either. The good news is that Adams survived without any re-injury, and the Pack is back at home against a Panther defense that is 21st in points at nearly 26 allowed per game. Rodgers rarely has two poor efforts in a row, and having Adams leading the receiving crew is huge considering Marques Valdez-Scantling was the next best option, and he averaged fewer than three receptions per game with Adams out. Aaron Jones has emerged as one of the better three-down backs in the league and his eleven total touchdowns trail just McCaffrey for the league lead. Jamaal Williams has been nearly as valuable, especially in the passing game, and leads the team with five touchdown receptions. Both backs should see more room to work with defenses keying on Adams and the entire offense should run more smoothly.

Key Stats

Both teams have some clear mid-pack ranks in major stat categories, but there are some standouts. Carolina is third in the league at 5.1 yards per rush, which looks good against Green Bay’s 24th ranked run defense. That hasn’t helped the Panthers on third down, however, as they are 26th in the league at 32% conversions. Long down-and-distance situations will play into the hands of Preston and Za’Darius Smith, who each have eight sacks for Green Bay. Speaking of sacks, Carolina leads the league with 34 sacks and holds opposing QBs to an average rating below 75, good for 3rd in the league. Green Bay has only allowed 20 sacks through nine games, but Rodgers has been hurried and hit many more times with his next-level improv game bailing him and the Packers out on many occasions. There are seven Panthers with at least three sacks, but team-leader Mario Addison may miss this week as he deals with the shooting death of his brother.

Trend Watch

Carolina has been strong on the road, winning four of the last five against the spread away from home and are 6-2 ATS in the last eight against an opponent with a winning record. Green Bay is 4-0 ATS in their last four against an opponent over .500 and is also 4-0 against the spread immediately after an ATS loss. The over is 4-0 in the last four Carolina games overall and 5-1 in the last six against an NFC opponent. The line opened with the Packers at -6, but that has been trimmed to the current -5 by Wednesday. At that spread, Green Bay is getting 63% of the public action, and the over is seeing a similar 63% in bets for.

It sounds like Green Bay got caught up in making their trip to LA a little too much pleasure and not enough business. I’m sure this week of practice included some focus on assignments and responsibility, and I think the Packers have a noticeable turnaround. Carolina is darn good and can attack exactly where Green Bay is weak on defense, but I like the Packers to cover the five with Rodgers and the offense leading the way. Adams has only played five games this season but is still without a touchdown, and I expect that to change this week. Jones and Williams are proving to be nearly unstoppable as a duo, and stopping them will keep some heat off of Rodgers. Christian McCaffrey is going to get his and should keep Carolina close through most of the afternoon, but Green Bay escapes with a 28-21 win and cover.

Ted’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread:Green Bay