Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers Pick – MNF Game Analysis
Seattle Seahawks (7-2 SU, 4-5 ATS) vs. San Francisco 49ers (8-0 SU, 5-3 ATS)
Date/Time: Monday, November 11, 8:15 PM EST
Where: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, Ca
Point Spread: Car +6.5 / SF -6.5 (Bovada - 50% Bonus/Credit Cards Work Here!)
Over/Under Total: 47
The Seattle Seahawks travel down the Pacific Coast to the San Francisco Bay to take on their division rival 49ers in a crucial NFC West showdown. 5DIMES has made San Fran 6.5 point favorites for this game and set the total at 47. The play is to take the 49ers to win the game and cover the 6½ points. Here are three reasons.
San Francisco Will Run the Ball All Night
Kyle Shanahan’s offense is running hot, and it all starts with the running game. San Fran leads the league in rushing attempts, is second in the league in rushing yards per game, and tied for the league in rushing touchdowns. Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida do the majority of the work out of the backfield and are the perfect combination for Shanahan’s zone-blocking scheme. Both backs can hit the hole and take the ball to the house on any play. Seattle’s rush defense will be overwhelmed on MNF. The Seahawks are 27th in the league allowing 4.7 yards per carry, and 31st in the league allowing opponents to score 12 rushing touchdowns through 9 weeks. The Seahawks still have elite linebackers in Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright, who have combined for over 160 tackles, but the defensive line will be overmatched this week. Joe Staley returns at left tackle for the Niners, and Kyle Juszczyk returns at fullback, which will give 49er backs big lanes to run through. Shanahan’s running scheme is the best in the NFC, with misdirection aspects on almost every play that will confuse the Seahawk front leaving those linebackers one on one with the back to stop the big play.
After Shanahan gets the defense on their heels, he unleashes the passing game. QB Jimmy Garoppolo has been playing better every week coming off last year’s ACL injury last year. Tight end George Kittle is the primary target in the passing game. Kittle had his best performance of the year last Thursday night despite injuring his MCL early in the first quarter. Emmanuel Sanders has only been a 49er for two weeks but has already established himself as the #1 wide receiver. He has 11 receptions and two touchdowns and will be a problem for the Seahawk secondary that isn’t very good. Seattle is 31st in the league, allowing 2503 passing yards in 9 weeks. A few years ago, the Seahawks were the gold standard of defenses, now they are 29th in yards per play against, and this will be the best offense they have faced. This sets up to be a big mismatch with the Niner offense totally dominating Seattle’s defense.
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Russell Wilson Can’t Keep Up
Wilson has arguably been the best quarterback in the NFL this season, and he is currently the favorite to be league MVP. Wilson has carried the leaky Seahawk defense to 7 wins and has his team in position to make a run at the NFC West title and maybe a super bowl run. He leads the league with 22 passing touchdowns despite being 11th in attempts. He plays behind a poor offensive line and has been sacked 22 times, but he has escaped many more sacks, and often, that leads to big plays. Tyler Lockett is often the beneficiary of Wilson’s magic. Lockette has 59 receptions on 72 targets and has scored six times. The Seahawks also like to run the ball and have a strong running game. Chris Carson is the centerpiece of the running attack and punishes defenders that try to tackle him. But the Seahawk offense will have their toughest challenge of the year against the 49ers.
San Francisco’s defense is second in the league allowing only 4.5 yards per play. They are only allowing 123 passing yards per game, and are 11th in rushing yards allowed. They will be without linebacker Kwon Alexander who will be a significant loss in the middle of the field and could impact the run defense. But the strength of the San Fran defense is their pass rush. They are third in the league with 30 sacks, and the Seahawks will not be able to block the 49er front 4. Wilson has proven he can get out of some tough jams, but I think the 49er pass rush will keep Wilson in the pocket most of the night and keep him from taking over the game. Wilson can’t be stopped, but the San Fran defense will win more battles than they lose.
San Francisco Is the Hot Team
The 49ers had a few fortunate wins to start the season off, but over the past five games, they have been playing like a super bowl contender. They have won those games by a total of 91 points. They led Arizona last week by 14 points to start the 4th quarter before some garbage time points brought the final score to a 3 point margin. Seattle has been limping by all year, being saved by Wilson. They needed overtime last week to beat a two-win Tampa Bay team at home, and have only won once by a comfortable margin. Shanahan has a depth of talent on both sides of the ball that can take over a game in a variety of ways. The offense is red hot, and the pass rush will harass Wilson all night. Seattle has holes throughout their roster and an offensive line that will struggle against an elite SF defensive line.
Lay the Points and Play San Francisco
San Francisco is the right play on Monday Night. They are the better team, and I think they will expose a Seahawk team that is probably not as good as their record indicates. Another way to play this would be to alleviate risk by making the Niners a +7 underdog by inserting them into a 13 point NFL teaser at BetAnySports. A 5 teamer pays out at -105 odds and there are a ton of good underdogs this week to tie up with our SF pick.