Chicago Bears (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS) vs. St Louis Rams (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS)
NFL Week 10
Date/Time: Sunday, November 15, 1:00pm
Where: Edward Jones Dome St Louis, Missouri
TV: CBS
by Bob, NFL Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: CHI +8 / STL -8
Over/Under Total: 42.5
This Sunday at 1:00pm, the Chicago Bears will travel into St Louis to take on the Rams. Both of these teams are very hard to read and have been a roller coaster all season long. Chicago enters the game at 3-5 overall after a Monday night win over the San Diego Chargers. The Rams suffered a tough loss to the Minnesota Vikings to drop them to 4-4 overall. The Rams are still in second place in the NFC West but that win over Minnesota would have been huge for their playoff hopes.
I was shocked to see the line on this game. I would have guessed the St Louis Rams would have been a three or four point favorite but as I write this, most books have them as an eight point home favorite and I have actually seen it as high as nine. I will base this prediction on the eight points since a majority of the books have it set there. The over under on the total points are 42.5. After checking into things, it appears that most of the betting public had the same idea as me and thinks that this line is a tad high. Over 60% of the action is riding on the Bears to cover the points on the road. Both teams are very similar this season when it comes to spreads. The Bears and Rams are both 4-4 ATS and this should be a very intriguing match-up. Both teams NEED a win, badly.
The St Louis Rams have been a bit of a surprise this season. I knew they were making the right moves to improve over the next few seasons, but I had no idea they would be in the mix so late into the 2015 campaign. Quarterback, Nick Foles, who the Rams acquired from the Eagles in the off season has not lived up to his expectations but he has played well enough in key moments to get the Rams some wins. The brightest star for St Louis however is rookie running back, Todd Gurley. I have watched this kid play since he was an eighteen year old freshman at Georgia and I knew he would be a good NFL but never did I see him being this good this fast. Gurley, who did not even dress out til week three and did not truly play until week four has already amassed 664 yards rushing and he has also put up another 88 yards catching the ball out of the back field. This Rams team is just a few key players away from being a legit contender in the NFC West. With Seattle and San Francisco appearing to be going the wrong way, the Cardinals and Rams are making a case as the teams to beat in the division. In order to win this game and cover the big spread, the Rams need to do what they do best. Pound the ball with Gurley and play hard nosed defense. The Rams scoring defense is ranked 6th in the NFL, but the reason they are only 4-4 is because the offense is ranked 30th. If St Louis plans to cover an eight point spread, they are going to need to score some points. Plain and simple.
I never know what to expect from the Chicago Bears and it has been that way for like five or six years. The Bears are a team that you can count on to win big games then fall flat on their face against mediocre opponents. So far in 2015, the Bears are not very impressive statistically. Chicago ranks 21st in passing, 17th in rushing and their offense is scoring just 20 points per game. On the defensive side, things are not much better with them allowing almost 28 points a game which puts them in the bottom five of the entire NFL. If the Bears have ANY chance to win this game, they must stop the run. If they can keep Gurley on a short leash and make the Rams rely on the passing of Nick Foles, not only can the Bears stay within the spread, I truly believe they can win the game.
I like this Rams team much more than I like the Chicago Bears, but an eight point spread in the NFL is too much for me to jump on especially when it is two teams playing where neither has been overly impressive. I think the Rams win, but I do not think they can score enough to cover the spread. St Louis will win this game by something like a 19-13 score. Bears will cover but lose, and the Cutler haters will have more fuel.
Bobs Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Take the Chicago Bears +8 and UNDER the posted total of 42.5 points combined.
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