Cincinnati Bengals at Las Vegas Raiders Total Bet

by | Nov 18, 2021 | nfl

Cincinnati Bengals (5-4 SU, 4-5-0 ATS) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (5-4 SU, 4-5-0 ATS)

When: Sunday, Nov. 21st, 2021, 4:05 pm (ET)

Where: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV

TV: CBS

Point Spread: CIN -1/LV +1 (Opened at 1 at BetNow - Home of the 100% bonus up to $1000!)

Total: 49.5 (Opened at 49)

Money Line: CIN -115/LV -105

Power Rating: CIN -1

Key Injuries

Cincinnati Bengals: C Trey Hopkins *Questionable* (Knee), DT Tyler Shelvin *Questionable* (Knee), TE Mitchell Wilcox *Out* (Covid), LB Markus Bailey *Out* (Covid), LB Akeem Davis-Gaither *Out* (Foot), FS Brandon Wilson *Out* (Knee), WR Auden Tate *Questionable* (Thigh)

Las Vegas Raiders: S Tyree Gillespie *Out* (Hamstring), CB Keisean Nixon *Questionable* (Ankle), RB Josh Jacobs *Questionable* (Knee), SS Roderic Teamer *Questionable* (Shoulder), RB Jalen Richard *Questionable* (Ribs), FB Alec Ingold *Out* (Knee), CB Amik Robertson *Questionable* (Hip), LB Nick Kwiatkoski *Questionable* (Ankle)

Recent Form

The visiting Cincinnati Bengals have seen a tough road the past few weeks. After a huge 41-17 win over the Ravens, the Bengals have dropped two straight to the Jets and Browns. Still in the mix at 5-4 for a Wild Card and the wide-open AFC North. Despite a slide in the AFC, the Bengals still have one of the league’s best pass offenses, averaging 264.3 YPG through the air. In total offense and defense, the Bengals are near identical on both sides of the ball, averaging 361.4 YPG offensively and 361.2 YPG on defense.

The Raiders have seen a similar fate to the Bengals, after a 5-2 start, dropping their last two games and sitting at 5-4. The Raiders come off their worst loss of the season on Sunday Night Football to division rival Kansas City Chiefs. Las Vegas has seen their fair share of drama this season with HC Jon Gruden and WR Henry Ruggs, but the team has found a way to stay relevant in the AFC and look to bounce back in a crucial game against an AFC opponent who they may see come postseason, should they make it the distance. The Raiders are the second-best total offense, averaging 383.9 YPG. The Vegas defense is allowing 360.1 YPG and 25.6 points a game, which puts them in the bottom half of the league defensively.

Derek Carr Airs it Out

Derek Carr has had a resurgence this season, leading the Raiders to be the second-best passing offense in the league. Carr has been good at taking the top off defenses with a second league-best, 26 passing plays of 25+ yards. Though the offense isn’t as good without Ruggs, Carr has leaned on Renfrow and Waller to get the job done. Running backs Kenyan Drake and Josh Jacobs have also seen more touches in the passing game. Entering week 11, Carr is averaging 298.9 YPG, and if you’re the Bengals defense, you have to be concerned as one of the worst passing defenses in the league, allowing 260.3 YPG. This game is going to be a slugfest of pass-heavy offenses, but with the consistency of Carr this season, and the Bengals defense struggling against the pass, I give the offensive edge to the Raiders.

In the Red Zone

The Raiders come into this matchup with better stats on both sides of the ball in the red zone. Offensively, the Raiders get into the red zone 3.8 times per game, scoring touchdowns 53% of the time. The Bengals get into the red zone just 2.7 times per game, which is 7th worst in the league. Defensively, the Bengals defense allows 3.3 trips to the red zone for opposing offenses, allowing them to score touchdowns 59% of the time. Again, this game will come down to defensive stops in a pass-heavy game. If the Bengals can’t hold the Raiders to field goals, they will struggle to keep up in this game.

Bengals Turnovers

The Bengals offense has been one of the most explosive offenses with the combination of Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase. While they have seen a lot of positives, passing 58% of the time, it has come with a price as Burrow leads the NFL with 11 interceptions on the year. In comparison, Carr has three fewer interceptions in 40 more attempts. Though running is a lesser part of the Bengals offense, ball carriers average 0.9 fumbles a game. As a team, the Bengals giveaway the ball 1.4 times per game. This game is expected to be a shootout with two of the league’s best passers, so if Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense lose the turnover margin, it could prove to be the difference-maker so long as the Raiders can turn them into points.

The Historicals

Sunday’s game will be the fifth time these teams have met in the past nine years. The Bengals have won three of the last four matchups, though the Raiders won the last time they met in 2019. The all-time series between these teams is led by the Raiders 21-11.

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How the Public is Betting the Bengals vs. Raiders

59% are betting the Bengals to cover the spread.

58% are wagering on the game to go over the posted total of 49.5.

Betting Trends Worth Noting

  • The Cincinnati Bengals are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite.
  • The Cincinnati Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their previous four games against the Raiders.
  • The Las Vegas Raiders are 5-2 ATs in their last seven games as an underdog.
  • Over is 7-2-1 in the Bengals’ last ten games as a favorite.
  • Over is 11-0-1 in the Raiders’ last 12 games as a home underdog.
  • Over is 6-0-1 in the Raiders’ last seven home games vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Over is 8-1 in the Raiders’ last nine home games.

Collin’s Pick on the Total

This matchup features two teams desperate to get back into the win column after two straight losses. Given the tight spread of just one point, the last team with the ball may determine the game’s outcome and who covers. That said, I see more value this week in the total line. As mentioned, this game is likely to be a pass-heavy game going big play after big play back and forth. Since neither team relies on the clock chewing run game (tied for 28th in rush attempts L3), the opportunity for more plays is a strong probability and with that value is on the OVER. Note: Many bettors have gotten smoked over the past couple of weeks due to crazy outcomes in football betting. If this applies to you, instead of re-deposting at your bookie and getting NOTHING, consider checking out our list of 100% sportsbook bonuses! We’ve advertised all these places for over a decade and they’re all ROCK solid!

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