Cincinnati Bengals vs. Indianapolis Colts Pick

by | Oct 13, 2020 | nfl

Cincinnati Bengals (1-3 SU, 3-2 ATS) vs. Indianapolis Colts (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS)

When: Sunday, October 18th, 2020– 1:00 PM ET

Where: Lucas Oil Stadium – Indianapolis, IN


Point Spread: CIN +8 / IND -8 (Intertops - Get a FREE $50 Bet! Deposit $25, get a Free $50! Simply use bonus code ROOKIE200)

Total: N/A

Takeaways From Week Five

The Bengals come into this match-up off a nasty 27-3 loss suffered at the hands of the Baltimore Ravens. The Bengals were taking back 12.5-points in what was dubbed a battle of Heisman Trophy winners, Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson would get the better of that equation. The loss snapped a three-game cover streak for the Bengals.

The Colts saw a three-game winning streak come to an end when it was defeated on the road last Sunday at Cleveland in a 32-23 loss. The Colts closed as a one-point underdog, but the resurgent Browns carried its takers to the window. The loss also ended a three-game cover streak for the Colts, who had separated themselves greatly from a stunning upset sustained against the Jacksonville Jaguars in their season-opener.

How the Public is Betting the Cincinnati/Indianapolis Game

Currently, 56% of the consensus like the Colts here as a significant favorite. As a result of the initial public lean, we have seen the Colts spot an additional half-point from the open of this line. At the open, the market had priced Indianapolis as a 7.5-point favorite.

The Historical

Indianapolis and Cincinnati last met in 2018 in Cincinnati, where the Bengals would win and cover as a one-point favorite in a 34-23 victory. In the last eight meetings between both parties, each team has won on four occasions.

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Betting Trends

An emerging betting trend in this contest is that the favorite is 5-1 ATS in the previous six match-ups. For Over/Under players, the Under is 5-1 ATS in the last six contests that have transpired in Indianapolis. In particular, the Colts offer equity here as they are 4-0 ATS in their previous four stints as the home favorite.

Injury Concerns

Bengals Wide Receiver A.J Green is out indefinitely with a hamstring injury. The blows to the receiving corps can only continue further as wide-out John Ross III is also listed as questionable for Sunday as he battles an unspecified illness.

Why We Like Indianapolis to Cover

It’s going to be hard for me to get behind the Bengals here if there is the prospect of two of their primary receiving options being unavailable for this affair. That makes Rookie Joe Burrow’s job a lot more difficult, and it can render Cincy one-dimensional as they will be implementing a heavy dose of the run. The problem is that Indianapolis will stack the box and force Burrow to beat them deep, but if there is no deep threat or receiver that demands to be doubled at times, Cincinnati will struggle in this endeavor. Indianapolis, after all, does bode the best statistical defense in the NFL at the moment, giving up a paltry 17.6 points per game (2nd overall), a menial 266 yards of total offense per contest (1st in the NFL). They are ruthless against the pass, in particular, spotting just 179.6 yards per game to opponents (league-leading). Indy’s defense would have a been problem for a healthy Cincinnati team, I anticipate the issues will only be intensified with the present Bengals injury situation.

Keith’s Pick to Cover the Spread: Indianapolis -8

When we look at the two teams and compare their ATS records to their win-loss results, Indianapolis has been a “what you see is what you get” kind of team. However, Cincinnati has performed better against the spread than their record, which means that the market has not caught up to the Bengals yet in terms of how they are priced. Cincinnati has been undervalued this season, but in this game, I would argue they are actually overvalued as they should be taking back a bigger number than presented. Unlike Indianapolis, who has been a bit of a defensive dynamo, the Bengals have not been a team that is known to flex its muscles defensively. Cincy gives up 20.4 points per game, which puts them 29th in the league. For a veteran like Phillip Rivers, this is a prime match-up for him to cash in on. Rivers will pick apart the Bengals while Cincinnati won’t be able to respond. Not only will Indianapolis cover the number, I anticipate that the Colts will steamroll the Bengals. Swallow the points with confidence. NOTE! 5Dimes no longer accepts bets from the USA players. Many are bitter about the loss of reduced juice -105 betting odds. Many aren’t aware there are other GOOD books still offering -105! We’ve advertised one of them for over 10 years with no complaints! Get your -105 sides and totals back TODAY by signing up at BetAnySports!

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