Cincinnati Bengals vs. New England Patriots Betting Predictions

by | Dec 21, 2022 | nfl

Cincinnati Bengals (10-4 SU, 11-3 ATS) vs. New England Patriots (7-7 SU, 7-6-1 ATS)
NFL Football Week 16
Date/Time: Saturday December 24th, 2022. 1:00 PM (EST)
Where: Gillette Stadium Foxborough, MA
TV: CBS

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: CIN -3.5/NE +3.5 (Bet your games at -105 odds instead of -110! Find this awesome money saving offer that will save you THOUSANDS (and it costs you nothing!) at BAS Sportsbook!)
Moneyline: CIN -180/NE +165
Total: 41.5

Earlier this year, the Cincinnati Bengals did not show many resemblances of a team that won the AFC Championship and made a Super Bowl appearance last year. However, the Bengals have found some late-season momentum, just as we saw last year, with six straight wins. In last week’s 34-23 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, QB Joe Burrow had a 4-touchdown performance to four different Cincinnati receivers to help lead the defeat over the waning Buccaneers. With the victory, Cincinnati took a clear lead over the AFC North and now lead the Ravens by one game in the divisional race. On Saturday, the Bengals will try to keep their top spot when they travel to Gillette Stadium for a week 16 showdown against the New England Patriots.

The visiting Patriots have dropped 3 of their last four games, including last week’s 30-24 loss against the Las Vegas Raiders, in the most bizarre way imaginable. Despite a tied score, the Patriots were attempting multiple laterals on the final play of the game, which you would expect from teams that must score to win. The Patriots could have taken their chances in overtime, but during the last play, DE Chandler Jones picked off one of the laterals before returning it 48 yards for the game-winning touchdown. The devastating loss was a big blow to New England’s playoff chances, and the Patriots must rebound this weekend to avoid essentially being eliminated from playoff contention!

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Cincinnati Bengals vs. New England Patriots Betting Analysis

Unlike much of Saturday’s slate of games, the weather should not be a significant factor in Foxborough this weekend. While it will be cold, the Bengals and Patriots will likely not deal with the participation expected at other events this week. From a match-up perspective, the Bengals have been firing on all cylinders in recent weeks, and all of their skill position players are finally healthy. In the last six games, the Bengals have averaged 30 points per game. Burrow is playing well and now has a full arsenal of weapons with Jamarr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd. Meanwhile, RB Joe Mixon appears to have shaken off the injury concerns as well.

Needless to say, the Bengals’ offense presents numerous challenges for a Patriots defense that has been pretty average this season. I expect Head Coach Bill Belichick to focus on stopping the Bengals WR1 in Jamarr Chase, but Burrow has plenty of options, even if that strategy works. On the other side of the football, Cincinnati’s defense has played well against the run, limiting opponents to just 109 yards per game on the ground. With the inconsistent play of QB Mac Jones and a beat-up receiving corps, this will likely be a heavy dose of the Patriots’ running attack with Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris, who are both nursing injuries as well. As a result, I’m not seeing a lot of optimism for the Patriots in the match-up department.

More Picks: Get NFL handicapper Jay Horn’s NO/Cle Week 16 spread play >>>

Cincinnati Bengals vs. New England Patriots Betting Trends

  • Cincinnati is 6-0 SU and 6-0 ATS in the last six games
  • Cincinnati has hit the “under” in 13 of the last 19 games
  • Cincinnati is 6-1 ATS in the last seven games on the road
  • Cincinnati is 14-2 ATS in the last 16 games against AFC opponents
  • Cincinnati is just 1-6 ATS in the last seven games against New England
  • New England has hit the “under” in five of the last seven games
  • New England has hit the “under” in four of the last five games at home
  • New England is just 2-7 ATS in the last nine games as an underdog
  • New England has hit the “over” in four of the last five games against Cincinnati
  • New England is 7-0 SU in the last seven games at home against Cincinnati

Cincinnati Bengals vs. New England Patriots Betting Prediction

Road trips in the NFL are tough, and I understand why the betting line is slim. However, I still believe that the Bengals have more paths to victory and a cover in this match-up. As a result, I am laying the points with the Bengals!
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