New Orleans Saints vs. Cleveland Browns Analysis & Spread Pick

by | Dec 21, 2022 | nfl

New Orleans Saints (5-9 SU, 5-9 ATS) vs. Cleveland Browns (6-8 SU, 7-7 ATS)
NFL Football Week 16
Date/Time: Saturday December 24th, 2022. 1:00 PM (EST)
Where: FirstEnergy Stadium Cleveland, OH
TV: CBS

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: NO +3/CLE -3 (Bet your games at -105 odds instead of -110! Find this awesome money saving offer that will save you THOUSANDS (and it costs you nothing!) at BAS Sportsbook!)
Moneyline: NO +145/CLE -160
Total: 31.5

The Cleveland Browns got their 2nd win of the season with QB Deshaun Watson under center last week in a 13–3 victory over the Baltimore Ravens in rough weather. Watson is now 2-1 SU on the season as the Browns starter and will get another difficult challenge on Saturday against the visiting New Orleans Saints at FirstEnergy Stadium. Once again, the weather is expected to be an important factor which will be the case for many outdoor games this weekend. Saturday’s weather forecast is treacherous, with snow and windy conditions that will produce wind chills well below 0. As a result, the Saints and Browns have been tapped with one of the lowest totals (31.5) of the entire season.

The visiting Saints snapped a two-game losing skid last week with a 21-18 victory over the Atlanta Falcons. As many are aware, the Saints’ offense has been struggling in recent weeks, which has produced losses in 4 of the last six games. During that stretch, the Saints have been held to 16 points or less in each of their losses which includes an ugly shutout defeat against San Francisco. Last week, QB Andy Dalton got some help from the likes of TE Juwan Johnson (2 touchdowns) and WR Rashid Shaheed, who come up with a couple of big plays including a 68 yard bomb. Needless to say, the Saints will be looking for the offense to come up with big plays again this week in extremely tough playing conditions in hopes to win back-to-back games for the first time this year.

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New Orleans Saints vs. Cleveland Browns Betting Analysis

In the last three games with Watson under center, Head Coach Kevin Stefanski has been more inclined to throw the football. In fact, star RB Nick Chubb, who has carried the offense all season, has seen a slight reduction in touches and has just 133 rushing yards in the last two contests despite averaging nearly 100 yards per game through the first ten games. Meanwhile, Watson has not looked like his former self either, with just two touchdown passes and two interceptions through 3 games. Watson did have a few moments last week where he was able to spread the ball around effectively, but I am attributing that to the Ravens’ conservative pass defense more than anything.

As a result, I’m not exactly expecting anything special from the Cleveland offense this week. The good news for Cleveland fans is that the Saints offense has been even worse this season. As alluded to earlier, the Saints have been terrible in recent weeks and now their passing offense will likely be limited by weather conditions on Sunday. With RB Mark Ingram now on the injured reserve with a knee injury, Alvin Kamara should get all of the snaps in the Saints backfield against one of the worst run defenses in the league. However, Kamara’s speed and shiftiness could also be hampered by the weather conditions making this another difficult match-up for the Saints’ offense.

More Picks: Seattle at Kansas City betting predictions for their 12/24/22 game

New Orleans Saints vs. Cleveland Browns Betting Trends

  • New Orleans is 3-6 ATS in the last nine games
  • New Orleans is 4-9 SU in the last 13 games
  • New Orleans has hit the “under” in six of the last seven games
  • New Orleans is 0-5 SU in the last five games on the road
  • Cleveland is 4-2 ATS in the last six games at home
  • Cleveland has hit the “under” in four of the last five games
  • Cleveland has hit the “under” in eight of the last ten games against NFC opponents
  • Cleveland is 11-2 SU in the last 13 games against New Orleans
  • Cleveland is 5-1 ATS in the last six games against New Orleans

New Orleans Saints vs. Cleveland Browns Betting Prediction

If the weather is as bad as expected, this will be a physical football game with a lot of ground time. I believe the total is rightfully placed, but this game still has the high potential to be even lower. Personally, I believe Cleveland is the more physical football team, and I believe they will be forced to lean on Chubb this week which will be a winning formula!
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