Cincinnati Bengals (1-1 SU, 0-1-1 ATS) vs. Washington Redskins (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS)
NFL Week 3
Date/Time: 1:00 PM ET, September 23, 2012
Where: FedEx Field, Landover, MD
by Jason Green, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Cin +3.5/Wash -3.5
Over/Under Total: 48.5
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While the Washington Redskins lost last week RG3 had another good game and Washington ran the ball well, but their defense struggled. Their D may continue to struggle since OLB Brian Orakpo and DE Adam Carriker are both done for the season due to injuries. The Skins actually had a chance at the end of their last game to, at least, tie the Rams and go to OT, but WR Josh Morgan made a stupid penalty and it cost Washington a legit FG attempt.
The Cincinnati Bengals got into the W column last week, but they did not look very impressive doing so, especially on defense where they allowed Cleveland’s Brandon Weeden to pass for over 300 yards and Trent Richardson to rush for over 100 yards. For all of last season and the first 2 games of this season Cincy has yet to beat a team that made the 2011 playoffs.
Last week the Redskins were on the road and lost to the St. Louis Rams 31-28 and the Bengals were at home and beat the Cleveland Browns 34-27.
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RG3 passed for 209 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT last week and he also rushed for 82 yards. He did not have a great 2nd half, but I expect him to have a great game against the woeful Cincinnati pass defense that ranks 28th in the league and has given up many big plays through the air.
In the loss to the Rams the Skins racked up 176 rushing yards with Griffin and Alfred Morris having another solid game averaging 5.6 yards per carry. Since the Skins are banged up on D and have a suspect secondary Morris will get a lot of carries in and play well. Griffin will also pick up a lot of yards on short screen passes, as the Skins will keep the Bengals’ offense off the field.
The main reason the Bengals beat the Browns last week was the play of QB Andy Dalton. He bounced back from his poor season opening performance against the Ravens to pass for 318 yards with 3 TD and 1 INT. Look for him to play well again, as while the Redskins will stuff the run with their 10th ranked rushing defense their 31st ranked pass defense will struggle again.
After a decent game against the Ravens BenJarvus Green-Ellis only averaged 3.6 yards per carry against the Browns and he will have another sub par day facing the Redskins and their tough front line D. Ryan Kerrigan and London Fletcher will not let him bounce out and he will struggle to run in between the tackles.
The loss of Orakpo and Carriker will hurt the defense, but since the Skins will gamble on defense they will come up with some turnovers, as they have already forced 6 this season.
The Bengals are only 0-3-2 ATS in their last 5 road games 1-7-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall. While the Redskins are only 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games this game will be their first home one of the season and you might have heard they have a new QBN in the Nation’s Capital. The Over may be a good pick, as in the Bengals last 4 games the posted total has gone Over and in the Redskins last 4 home games the posted total has also gone Over.
Jason’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: There are much better bets on the week 3 NFL card such as Carolina on Thursday and Miami/Cleveland on Sunday. I know that you came here looking for a pick, but it’s really a crapshoot. I have to recommend a pass here. If you absolutely have to bet the game I my lean is to the Bengals losing by three but covering by the hook.
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