Cleveland Browns vs. Atlanta Falcons Week 4 Pick

by | Last updated Sep 26, 2022 | nfl

Cleveland Browns (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) vs. Atlanta Falcons (1-2 SU, 3-0 ATS)

NFL Football Week 4

Date/Time: Sunday October 2nd, 2021. 1:00PM (EST)

Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium Atlanta, GA


Betting Odds:

Point Spread: CLE -3/ATL +3 (BAS – STOP wasting money! Stop laying -110 odds on games! Start laying only -105 TODAY here!)

Total: 45

The Atlanta Falcons finally got into the W column last week with a 27-23 victory on the road against the Seattle Seahawks. After being one of the biggest disappointments during 2021, the Falcons have been surprisingly competitive through the first three weeks of the season. After close losses to the Saints and Rams by a combined 4 points, the Falcons are now 3-0 against the spread on the season and will be mere 3-point underdogs this week when they host the visiting Cleveland Browns inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

The Browns will enter their week four contest against the Falcons with some extra rest after defeating the Steelers 29-17 last Thursday. In that victory, the Browns got big efforts from RB Nick Chubb (23 carries, 113 yards, and one touchdown) and WR Amari Cooper (7 receptions, 101 yards, and one touchdown) for the 2nd week in a row. QB Jacoby Brissett also continues to play relatively well in the midst of Deshaun Watson’s suspension. While the Browns’ offense may not always be pretty, they are well-balanced and effective over the course of 60 minutes of play. As a result, it will be interesting to see if the Browns can continue to play well and get big box scores from their key players while they wait on Watson to return later in the season.

Cleveland Browns vs. Atlanta Falcons Match-Up Analysis

We could talk about both offenses in this game quite a bit. Like Cleveland, Atlanta has a new QB under center for the 2022 season in Marcus Mariota. In fact, the majority of the Falcons’ offense is brand new, with rookie WR1 Drake London, RB Tyler Allgeier, and others. However, I am more intrigued by the play of both defenses in this match-up. In my opinion, both defenses have the upper hand in this match-up. The Browns have a really good pass-rush with DE Myles Garrett and DE JaDeveon Clowney, who is expected to return from an ankle injury. Mariota’s achilles heel has been the pass-rush throughout his career, and I believe the Cleveland pass-rush could present a lot of problems, especially if they can stop the Falcons’ lone rushing threat in Cordarrelle Patterson.

Meanwhile, the Falcons’ defense has played much better than I would have expected this season. Personally, I thought the Falcons would be among the worst defenses in the NFL over the off-season, but they have shown some bend but don’t break characteristics. Like Cleveland’s defensive objective, Atlanta’s pass-rush will be key against Jacoby Brissett. Brissett plays a glorified game-manager role for Cleveland, but he can spread the ball around in a clean pocket. The Falcons are averaging three sacks per game and a top-10 pressure rate through the opening three weeks. If they can get some pressure on Brissett, things could get very interesting in what can only be expected as a plausible low-scoring affair.

Cleveland Browns vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Trends

  • The Browns are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 games against NFC opponents
  • The Browns are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 games against Atlanta
  • The Browns are 2-5 SU in the last 7 games on the road
  • Atlanta is 1-9 SU in the last 10 games at home
  • Atlanta is 0-8 ATS in the last 8 games against AFC North opponents
  • Atlanta has hit the “over” in 4 of the last 5 games
  • Atlanta is 6-14 ATS in the last 20 games played in October

More Picks: Get Jay’s top rated Jags/Eagles O/U bet for their 10/2/22 game.

Cleveland Browns vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Prediction

If you have read my previews before, I constantly talk about “paths to victory/covers.” Usually, the team that has the most paths to a cover tends to cover. Not only do I believe Cleveland is the better football team in this match-up, but I also believe that they have a large margin of paths to cover through the running game, the play of the defense, or even in the passing game if needed. However, I think the running game will be the difference here, and I think the Browns will get the job done!

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