Colts vs. Bills Odds & Pick

by | Jan 7, 2021 | nfl

Indianapolis Colts (11-5 SU, 8-8 ATS) vs. Buffalo Bills (13-3 SU, 11-5 ATS)

When: Saturday, January 9, 1 p.m.

Where: Bills Stadium, Orchard Park, N.Y.

TV: CBS

Point Spread: IND +6.5/BUF -6.5 (Best Bonus Offers - Deposit $100; get $100 FREE!)

Total: O/U 51

Outlook

It’s playoff time, and for the long-suffering Bills Mafia, it’s party time, as western New York plays host to the postseason for the first time since 1996. The Bills have dominated all season, winning seven of eight games at home, and they’ve really hit their stride as of late, covering in eight consecutive games. In their season finale, a game they didn’t even need, they unloaded on Miami for 56 points, wrapping up the No. 2 seed in the AFC and sending the Dolphins home for the season.

The direct beneficiary of that result was this weekend’s opponent, the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts did their best to choke away the Bills’ gift by nearly losing to the 1-15 Jaguars, but Indianapolis did manage to get out of its own way long enough to earn the final AFC playoff spot and a meeting with the red-hot Bills in the frigid weather of Buffalo. However, if you think this is as simple as a dome team facing an outdoor game, think again. The Colts are actually built to play outside and have the running game necessary to survive the nasty weather of January in western New York. They’ve also got a coach who knows exactly how to play in this situation, as Frank Reich was the backup quarterback in Buffalo during the Bills’ glory years in the early 1990s. With Philip Rivers potentially playing his final season, can the Colts bite the hands that fed them and take down the Bills?

How the Public is Betting the Indianapolis/Buffalo Game

I’ve been waiting for this line to move, but it’s stubbornly holding at Buffalo -6.5, despite 67 percent of tickets coming in on the Bills. The money has moved the total down from 52 to 51, but the sharps have put enough money on the Colts to keep the line where it started.

Injury Concerns

Indianapolis:
Safety Khari Willis (concussion) is probable. Cornerback T.J. Carrie (ankle), quarterback Philip Rivers (toe), defensive tackle DeForest Buckner (ankle), running back Jonathan Taylor (shoulder), tackle Will Holden (ankle), and cornerback Rock Ya Sin (concussion) are questionable. Guard Le’Raven Clark (Achilles) and tackle Anthony Castonzo (ankle) are out.

Buffalo:
Tight end Reggie Gilliam (knee) is probable. Wide receiver Isaiah McKenzie (ankle), wide receiver Stefon Diggs (oblique), wide receiver Cole Beasley (leg), and cornerback Siran Neal (head) are questionable. Running back T.J. Yeldon (back), tackle Cody Ford (knee), and tight end Tommy Sweeney (heart) are out.

When Indianapolis Has the Ball

When the Colts are at their best, they’ve been pretty difficult to stop. However, there’s a real concern that Philip Rivers might be running out of gas after a full season, as the Colts have lately only had enough energy for about 30 to 40 minutes of action. Indianapolis has scored 20 or more points in the first half of each of its past four contests, but the Colts have really struggled in the second half. In four of their last six games, Indianapolis only managed to score eight points or less in the final 30 minutes after leading at halftime.

That could be a real problem for the Colts against a Buffalo offense that’s putting up outstanding numbers, especially if Jonathan Taylor is too banged up to be effective in the second half. Taylor has had an outstanding rookie season, especially after blowing through Jacksonville in the season finale, but with him nursing a shoulder injury, it’s a major question as to whether he’ll be able to hold up in the second half when the Colts need him most. Indianapolis might need to put up some big numbers early to withstand Buffalo in the final 30 minutes.

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When Buffalo Has the Ball

Don’t panic if the Bills fall behind early. In fact, you might want to take the Colts +0.5 in the first quarter because the Bills have almost made slow starts into an art form. In their past five games, they’ve either been tied or trailing at the end of 15 minutes, and in all four instances, their opponent has scored first.

Once the Bills get going, though, look out. Buffalo has won six straight games by double digits, and falling behind early only means that you’ve got a chance to live bet the Bills at a cheaper price because the algorithm won’t be able to adjust. Hardly anyone has been able to adjust to Josh Allen this season, even at this late date of the campaign. Allen has really blossomed this season, throwing 37 touchdowns against ten interceptions and tossing for 15 touchdowns over the past five weeks.

The one concern for the Bills’ offense is whether the wide receivers will be at 100 percent because both Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley are nursing injuries and have had one fewer day of recovery time than usual. Both will almost certainly play, but if they’re not up to their normal standards, Buffalo’s attack could be stymied.

Betting Trends

If you decided to ride the Bills early, you’ve been a very happy and wealthy gambler. Buffalo has now covered in eight consecutive contests, and the Bills have done most of that despite the expectations of the public. Buffalo has now covered in six of its past seven as a home favorite, and the Bills have covered in four straight at home.

However, Indianapolis has been a fairly solid road team this season, covering in four of their past five trips away from Indiana. However, that hasn’t translated well to trips to Buffalo. The Colts have failed to cover in any of their past four visits to the Bills, and the offense has been the problem. In the past seven matchups in western New York, the under has cashed six times.

Weather Report

It’s going to be cold, but the thing the Colts care about is it’s going to be clear. Temperatures will be at 33 degrees, with the wind blowing north six miles an hour.

Dan’s Pick to Cover the Spread

With how the Colts are fading in the second half as of late, I just can’t see Indianapolis staying with Buffalo in this one. I might look to live bet this one to get Buffalo at a cheaper price, but I’m very comfortable with laying 6.5 with the Bills. I expect this to be a Buffalo win that ends up hitting the over; give me the Bills and the chalk. Bet your Colts/Bills pick and ALL your sports bets at -105 reduced odds instead of the more expensive -110 option that you’re probably laying at BetAnySports! Wagering at -105 saves you $5 in vig per $100 you’re trying to win. Tons over the course of the year!

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