Dallas Cowboys vs. Baltimore Ravens Point Spread – Pick Against the Spread

Dallas Cowboys(2-2SU,1-3ATS) vs. BaltimoreRavens(4-1SU,2-3ATS)
NFL Week6
Date/Time:October14th, 1:00PM EST
Where:M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
byJeffHochman,Pro Handicapper, JHSportsline.com

Point Spread: Dal+3.5/BAL-3.5
Over/Under Total:44

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The Dallas Cowboys will look to get back on trackafter their BYE,when they play the surging Baltimore Ravens in this week six matchup. Two weeks ago, Dallas lost 34-18 as 3-point home chalk on Monday Night Football. They out-gained the Bears by 70 yards, but it was numerous penalties and giveaways that cost the Cowboys any chance to keep the gameclose. The Ravens defeated the Chiefs 9-6 as 6.5-point road chalk this past Sunday. It was not easy for Baltimore as they were out-gained by 40 yards, but still managed to wintheir3rd straight game.

Thismatchup is tough to predict. Both teams are 0-3 ATS intheirlast three contests.The Cowboys areaveragingjust 16.2 points per game and they have one of the worst running games (66ypg)so far this season.DeMarcoMurray is a stud, but the Cowboysoffensive line is one of the worst in all of football. Tony Romo has more interceptions (8) than touchdowns (7), and better start playing smarter or this team will finish at .500 like always. The Cowboys are 122-122 since 1997. If they want to win No. 123, it will probably be the defense that steps up. Dallas is allowing just 277.5 yards per game anda scant 169.5 passing yards per game. Expect that number to increase as the Ravens pass offense has been highlyefficient, averaging 281.2 passing yards per game.Baltimore is at home with all theintangibles, but the Cowboys will bring in the better offense and defense. The Ravens have the better offensive line and special teams. Dallas is 3-1 ITS (in the stats) this season while the Ravens are a solid 3-2 ITS.

The return of All-pro nosetackleJay Ratliff and outside linebacker Anthony Spencer should help the Cowboys cause in containing Ray Rice. The Cowboys have never played against Ray Rice, so you can bet they have been watching a lot of film on him. Rice had 102 rushing yards in last week’s win. If the Cowboys can keep him under 100yardsrushing, they have a great chance at the upset. If not the Ravens will most likely win and cover. When Ray Rice rushes for 100+ yards Baltimore is 14-2 SU and 11-6 ATS since entering the league.The real strength of the Ravens has been Joe Flacco and the passing offense. Flacco is completing 61.2% of his throws with seven touchdowns and four interceptions. Torrey Smith has 19receptions,Boldenhas a team-high 23 grabs, and TE Dennis Pita has been a real find with 21 catches. The Ravens defense is a step slower than in years past. Ray Lewis has 43 tackles, which leads the team.

These teams have not play since 2008, which saw the Ravens win 33-24 as 5-point road dogs. Tony Romo was 24-of-45 for 252 yards with two scores and twointerceptions. Dallas had a tough time going against the Ravens defense in it’s prime but now it’s four years later. The Ravens are 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS in the last four head-to-head meetings. The big key in this game is the fact the Cowboys had two weeks to prepare, are coming off a blowout homeloss, and now installed as underdogs. These teams do very well against-the-spread in their next game,cashing close to 70% since 2000. These teams usually come out with an outstanding focus and game plan.

Dallas is 19-8 SU and 18-9 after their BYE week since 1993. The Cowboys are 7-1 ATS after their BYE week last eight years. The Cowboys are 7-0 ATSlast seven when installed as an underdog of more than 3 points. On the flip side,Dallas is just 5-15 ATS against all NFC North foes, 2-7 ATS in October games of late. Baltimore is 11-5 SU and 12-5 ATS vs. the NFC East since 1993. That is pretty impressiveconsideringhow good thatdivisionhas been. The Ravens are 27-7 SU and 22-10 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1993. Another impressive stat!

Jeff’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread:Dallas Cowboys +3.5and Over 44

I do not love the sidepick and if you made a case for the home team then by all means don’t listen to me. I just can’t trust the Cowboys offensive line, even though they have two weeks to prepare. There are better games to bet this Sunday. This contestis a good game to just watch and enjoy two above average QB’s. Look for a higher-scoring game than most people would think.

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