Dallas Cowboys (4-0) -10 o/u 44.5 at Buffalo Bills (1-3), 8:30 p.m. Eastern Monday, October 8, ESPN
by Jerald of Predictem.com
The Dallas Cowboys and Buffalo Bills meet Monday in Buffalo. The Cowboys are looking to go 5-0 for the first time in 24 years. The Bills are coming off of their first win last week, 20-17 against the Jets.
The Cowboys are 4-0 against the spread this season; they are 2-0 straight up and 2-0 ATS on the road.
The Bills are 1-3 ATS this season, and they are 1-1 SU and 2-0 vs. the number at home.
Dallas is led by QB Tony Romo who is off to a great start as he has thrown for 1,199 yards, 11 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. His QB rating is 112.9 and he has completed 59.5% of his passes. Marion Barber leads the Cowboy rushing attack with 306 yards (6.4 yards per carry) and 4 touchdowns.
Buffalo will be led by rookie QB Trent Edwards who replaced injured starter J.P Losman. Last week Edwards threw for 234 yards but didn’t get a touchdown. The rushing game is also led by a rookie, Marshawn Lynch. Lynch has ran for 307 yards (3.8 yards per carry) and 3 touchdowns.
The Cowboys are outrushing their opponents this season by a 152-80 yards-per-game average, while the Bills are being outrushed by their opponents by a 103-148 YPG margin.
Dallas is averaging 7.2 yards per play on the season while Buffalo is averaging 4.6 yards per play. The Cowboys defense has given up an average of 5.1 yards per play while the Bills have given up an average of 6.5 yards per play.
Dallas ranks 1st in total offense averaging 440.8 yards per game. Buffalo ranks 31st with 226.0 yards per game.
In scoring offense, the Cowboys rank 1st averaging 37.8 points per game and the Bills rank 31st averaging 10.2 points per game.
On the defensive side of the ball the Cowboys rank 8th in total defense giving up 299.5 yards per game while the Bills rank 32nd giving up an average of 430.2 yards per game.
In scoring defense Dallas ranks 11th and Buffalo ranks 19th giving up 18.0 and 23.2 points per game, respectively.
These teams last met in 2003 with Dallas winning 10-6.
The Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings at USAToday.com ranks Dallas #4 at 27.8, Buffalo is #27th at 15.47.
The Over/Under is 3-1 in Cowboys games this season, 1-3 in Bills games.
Dallas opened up as a 10 point favorite with a total of 44. The line has stayed at Dallas -10 and the total has risen to 44.5 at most online sportsbooks. At the time of this writing, the betting public was backing the Cowboys 87%-13%.
Jerald’s Pick: This game appears to be a total mismatch. These are the situations where we like to take advantage of the home team grabbing lots of points when nobody thinks they have a chance. Take the points!
Dallas 21 Buffalo 17