Dallas Cowboys vs. Minnesota Vikings Point Spread – Free Pick ATS

by | Last updated Nov 17, 2022 | nfl

Dallas Cowboys (6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS) vs. Minnesota Vikings (8-1 SU, 4-4-1 ATS)

NFL Football Week 11

Date/Time: Sunday November 20th, 2022. 4:25 PM (EST)

Where: U.S Bank Stadium Minneapolis, MN


Betting Odds:

Point Spread: DAL -1/MIN +1 (Bovada – We tout them a TON because they’re the BEST! Gotta love their huge menu of props for each game!)

Moneyline: DAL -110/MIN +100

Total: 47.5

Last week, the Minnesota Vikings’ winning streak appeared to be coming to a close on the road at Buffalo. With less than a minute remaining, QB Josh Allen and the Bills were attempting to run out the clock at their own goal line. Instead of running out the clock, Allen fumbled the snap, and the Vikings fell on the ball for a touchdown. After the Bills rallied to force overtime, the Vikings would later pull out a 33-30 victory to keep their magic alive and extend the win streak to 7 games. At 7-1 SU, the Vikings are now tied for the best record in the NFL and will look to keep the streak going in a tough home match-up this Sunday against the Dallas Cowboys.

The visiting Cowboys are on the heels of one of the more disappointing losses in recent memory. Despite leading by two touchdowns in the 4th quarter, QB Aaron Rodgers was able to rally in the 4th quarter to force overtime and eventually get the victory thanks to a questionable call by Dallas Head Coach Mike McCarthy to go for it on 4th down in overtime. The end result was the Cowboys losing their first game in franchise history when they were up by two touchdowns in the 4th quarter. Perhaps more importantly, the Cowboys (6-3 SU) fell another game behind in the surprisingly competitive NFC East division. Needless to say, the Cowboys need a bounce-back effort this week to keep control of their division and playoff hopes.

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Dallas Cowboys vs. Minnesota Vikings Betting Analysis

After unexpectedly sitting out in last week’s loss to Green Bay on the heels of a bye the week before, RB Ezekiel Elliott is expected to return this week for the Cowboys. Perhaps the timing could not be more impeccable because QB Dak Prescott struggled yet again in a situation where the Cowboys put the game into his hands. Despite ending the day with three touchdowns, Prescott’s two interceptions were critical turning points in last week’s loss. For this week’s match-up, the return of Elliott combined with talented legs of RB Tony Pollard should be enough to re-establish the focus on the Cowboys’ ground attack.

So far this season, the Vikings’ defense has been decent against the run, ranking 14th overall in DVOA run defense and yielding 118 yards per game on the ground. However, the Cowboys’ will undoubtedly provide Minnesota’s defense with their most difficult challenge to date. If Dallas can get the run game going, it will definitely open opportunities for Prescott in the passing game. WR CeeDee Lamb is coming off a monster performance which resulted in a 11-150-3 stat line. While those types of performances can never be expected, Lamb should have another very favorable match-up for the 2nd straight week.

Of course, if the Vikings can force Dallas into obvious passing situations, it will favor their chances tremendously. Even if that is not the case, the Vikings’ offense has shown tremendous potential. Last week, WR Justin Jefferson had the best performance of his young career with ten catches for 193 yards and a touchdown against one of the better defenses in the league. Jefferson remains match-up proof and is making a claim as the best receiver in the NFL. The key for Jefferson and the Vikings’ offense having another big game will be along the offensive front. The Cowboys lead the NFL with 35 sacks on the season and also lead the league in pressure rate against opposing quarterbacks. Anybody that has followed Kirk Cousins’ career knows that he is a different quarterback when facing heavy pressure, so the key for the Vikings will be keeping their quarterback upright.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Minnesota Vikings Betting Trends

  • The Cowboys are 6-2 ATS in the last eight games
  • The Cowboys have hit the “under” in 13 of the last 20 games
  • The Cowboys have hit the “over” in 4 of the last five games on the road
  • The Cowboys are 15-5 ATS in the last 20 games against NFC opponents
  • The Vikings are 7-0 SU in the last seven games
  • The Vikings have hit the “over” in 5 of the last seven games
  • The Vikings have hit the “under” in 8 of the last 12 meetings against Dallas
  • The Vikings are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings against Dallas at home
  • The Vikings are 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings against Dallas

Dallas Cowboys vs. Minnesota Vikings Betting Prediction

I don’t think these two teams are much different from a talent standpoint despite the difference in records. From a match-up perspective, I think this game favors the Cowboys’ defense and believe they should be able to get consistent pressure on Kirk Cousins. If the Cowboys’ defense plays well as I expect, I think the Cowboys’ offense will do enough to get the victory!

Jay’s Pick: Take Dallas -1. Bet your Week 11 NFL predictions for FREE by scoring a 100% real cash bonus from one of the top tier bookies on our sportsbook bonuses page!