Dallas Cowboys vs. Minnesota Vikings Spread Pick

by | Oct 27, 2021 | nfl

Dallas Cowboys (5-1 SU, 6-0 ATS) vs. Minnesota Vikings (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS)

NFL Football Week 8

Date/Time: Sunday October 31st, 2021. 8:20PM (EST)

Where: US Bank Stadium Minneapolis, MN

TV: NBC

Betting Odds:

Point Spread:DAL -2.5/MIN +2.5 (BetNow - Boost your bankroll with a 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $1000!) 

Total: 54.5

Sunday Night Football will have some extra star power this week when the Dallas Cowboys travel to US Bank Stadium to meet the Minnesota Vikings. America’s Team is coming off a week 7 bye and are among the hottest teams in the NFL. At 5-1 SU, the Cowboys have put together 5 straight wins and remain undefeated against the books with a 6-0 mark ATS. The Cowboys’ 5 straight victories are the most the organization has produced since Dak Prescott’s rookie campaign in 2016 and that streak will be put on the line against a Minnesota Vikings’ team that is healthy for the first time in several weeks.

Like the Cowboys, the Vikings also benefited from a week 7 bye. After struggling with injuries through the first few weeks, the Vikings are finally healthy again and that includes the healthy prognosis of star running back Dalvin Cook. Cook has only played 3 complete games this season but continues to be one of the most productive backs in the NFL when on the field. Averaging just 24 points per game, the Vikings have struggled to find consistency on the offensive side of the football and that is why it is important for Cook to be in the backfield. The question for Sunday night’s match-up is can the Vikings overcome an improving Cowboys defense?

Where is the money for SNF?

The Cowboys opened as a mere 1 point favorite over the Vikings in what appeared to be a “pick em” style contest. However, America’s Team has been hammered with over 85% of the early betting action. As a result, the Cowboys are currently listed as 2.5 point favorites and that number is already listed as 3 points at some less popular books. Additionally, the total for this match-up has been posted at a lofty 54.5 points despite the fact both the Vikings (home team which normally depicts the pace) have hit the “under” in 3 of the last 4 games. I believe everyone would agree that the 2.5 point betting line is very narrow considering the Cowboys’ hot streak but I would also point out the fact that home teams have covered at a 62% clip since 2012 on Sunday Night Football when the betting line is less than a one score difference either way.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Minnesota Vikings Betting Trends

  • The Cowboys are 6-0 ATS on the season
  • The Cowboys have hit the “over” in 5 of 6 games this season
  • The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 games on the road
  • The Cowboys are just 1-5 ATS in the last 6 games against the Vikings
  • The Cowboys are just 1-7 ATS in the last 8 games on the road against the Vikings
  • The Vikings are 3-10 ATS in the last 13 games
  • The Vikings are just 1-6 ATS in the last 7 games at home
  • The Vikings have hit the “over” in 6 of the last 9 games
  • The Vikings are 5-1 SU in the last 6 games against the NFC East

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Dallas Cowboys vs. Minnesota Vikings Betting Analysis

When the public is all over a betting line, there is usually a match-up angle or some other factor that is being ignored. For this Sunday’s showdown at US Bank Stadium, I am not finding any missing angles to pivot against the public. In fact, the match-ups appear to favor the Cowboys on both sides of the football. Throughout the Cowboys’ hot streak, they have punished teams with a balanced attack from QB Dak Prescott and have been equally dangerous on the ground with Ezekiel Elliott. Defensively, the Vikings have under-performed throughout the season allowing 382 yards per game. With so many match-up advantages and the normal brilliant play calling from Kellen Moore, Dallas has all the tools to keep the Vikings on their heels all night.

For the Vikings offense, there are potential paths to victory. Mike Zimmer’s Vikings have a run-first approach on offense and typically feed off the running success with play-action. For all the praise the Cowboys’ defense has received this year as a result of forcing turnovers, they have still allowed nearly 400 yards per game. Fortunately for the Cowboys, they have been really good against the run and have held opponents to just 86 yards per game on the ground which ranks 4th in the NFL. Obviously we are not going to expect the Cowboys defense to completely shut down Dalvin Cook nor are we going to expect the Cowboys to prevent giving up some plays against the pass. However if Dallas can continue to stand strong against the run, QB Kirk Cousins is a very subpar talent in obvious passing downs. As a result, I will put my trust in the more explosive offense with the better talent.

Jay’s Pick: Cowboys -2.5. Question: Have you educated yourself about the benefits of reduced vig? If not, take 2 minutes to read about it! It’ll change the way you bet on games forever!

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